Sport is made for betting

Sorry for not posting for the last couple of days, didn't have a lot to say and have been moving house and suffering with the incompetence of BT re house moves... In my outright tips , I took the unoriginal angle of backing Venus and Federer, and I'm sticking by them. The match prices are very close to how I marked them so I don't see any point in hedging (which should always be a value proposition), but that's an individual decision. I rarely like to get involved in betting/trading on finals because the markets are usually correct and I prefer to watch and enjoy the great matches rather than fuss about my position. During last year's men's final, I just closed out at the end of the first set and sat back and watched one of the greatest matches of all time. Good luck with your bets.

After all the favourites winning today in the women's quarters, there's a big poosibility of this happening again tomorrow. Hewitt has done a great job to get this far but he's got a massive test ahead of him. Once upon a time, Lleyton owned Roddick. but those days are long gone. A-Rod has won four in a row, including both matches this year, so the ledger now stands at 6-5 to the Aussie. I'll get lynched by my mates in the Fanatics who are queueing up overnight to be courtside again, but I struggle to see him getting any further. Roddick has been in tremendous form this year while all the attention has been on Federer, Murray or Nadal. Larry Stefanki has him in his best form for several years. Roddick 3-1. Tommy Haas is in his best form for years and beat Djokovic just a few weeks ago in the Halle final (grass). His serve-volley game is working a treat and the relaxed veteran's attitude is working wonders. Djokovic has looked good in the last couple of rds, he's...

Four women's quarter-finals and none particularly straightforward. Safina was in trouble against Mauresmo, a player with more mental strength would have finished her off, but it wasn't to be. Lisicki is flying, based on a big serve and heavy groundstrokes. But this is the same style as Safina which puts the German teen at a disadvantage. She won't be able to outhit the Russian, she needs to be able to mix it up a bit to frustrate her. Venus is the strongest favourite of the day against Radwanska but I think she's a silly price. Radwanska is an exceptionally smart player, varying her style to best suit the matchup. The h2h stands 3-1 in favour of Venus, but I think she's worth a small lay at the odds. Make up your own mind whether you want to trade it or not. If you read my outright previews, you'll know I'm on Venus for the title, so it's a little bit of insurance for me. Azarenka beat a wounded Serena in Miami but also had her on toast in Melbourne back...

Great result on Saturday courtesy of Lisicki, unfortunately the two men didn't offer a squeak. Onto Monday... Teenage American qualifier Oudin has come from a set down in all three rds so far, which shows a great deal of determniation, a trait often lacking on the women's tour. I'm yet to catch any of her matches live so I'll be making a point of doing so tomorrow. Radwanska played a defensive game against Li, just hitting soft shots back and watching the Chinese player self-destruct. Just a watch match for me, but I'll probably lay Radwanska if she goes a set up purely on the Oudin resilience factor. Azarenka has dropped just five points on first serve in two and a half matches. Incredible stat. She faces Petrova who beat her here in two breakers last yr. The Russian needs to play a lot better than she did against Dulko, but you know she can from her earlier rounds. Ivanovic showed her best form in months against Stosur, if she lived up to that form, she could stre...

Another good day with plenty of volatility to lock in profits in the two matches highlighted yesterday. Stosur played a shocker against Malek, did everything she could to lose it but the German wasn't good enough to close it out. If she playes that badly again, she'll get hammered, no matter how bad Ivanovic plays. On her French Open form, she should win this. Ivanovic was much better in the second rd as she was in R1. Tough one to call, with probably be a trader's delight with ebbs and flows throughout. Davydenko holds an 8-0 h2h record over Berdych, yet he is odds-against?? The Czech has a lot of hype about him, particularly on grass, but usually under-delivers. Nikolay isn't the fav of most punters, but he is doing well and proceeding under the radar so far. Those h2hs usually turn around at some stage, at least once, but hopefully not here. Hanescu has been serving brilliantly and has a few more weapons than Simon, who has troublesome knees and is going for his shot...

Far better result yesterday with two good winners and a couple of matches that were at least tradeable in-running. Let's see how we can go for Friday. Cibulkova and Zvonareva both retired in doubles on Thursday due to injury - they're both due to play R3 matches on Friday. Watch the prices drift accordingly. Dulko will find it hard to back up after knocking off Sharapova, but she does hold a 2-2 record against the heavy-hitting Petrova. Bartoli is in awesome form and loves grass, but Schiavone leads the h2h 3-1, and all matches have gone to three sets. Laying Bartoli and Petrova to trade out in-running, I think both of those matches will be tight.

Let's try posting a bit earlier today... There may be a tad of bias here being Australian, but I think Hewitt is a live chance against del Potro today. I've never been a huge fan of his to be honest, but I marked del Potro only a slight fav - he has to be a lay at 1.45. Lleyton's last five losses here have been to Federer (x3), Djokovic and Baghdatis (the year he made the semis). He loves Wimbledon and will make sure he keeps the ball low, making it tough for the 6'6" Argentine to get a rhythm. Baltacha is favourite in a match at Wimbledon. I don't care who she's playing, that has to be a lay! Flipkens isn't great, but nor is she hopeless. Gonzalez has complained of knee soreness and plays a very promising kid in Leo Mayer. I've seen him live a couple of times in recent weeks and have been very impressed with his game. Lay the 1.25 for two units, with one unit traded back at 1.5 or so in-running. Cuevas beat Rochus in five, not a great achievement, ...

Sorry, running a bit late today... Razzano reported feeling very tired after last week before R1 match against a girl who could barely move. Craybas will run her around. Bolelli retired in a doubles match yesterday, has to be a query to finish the match against Tsonga. Darcis had an unbelievable winners/errors ratio in R1 - 44/6, winning more than 50% of the pts when Dancevic came to the net. Karlovic usually doesn't last too long here, if Darcis can get a racquet on a few serves and get them back at his toes, he 's a big chance at odds. Zvonareva was really struggling to move against Stoop in R1. Her ankle problem won't go away one day later, but her opponent isn't much good though. Spadea is no champ, but knows how to be annoying with slices, chip-charge etc. Andreev could easily get frustrated quickly with him. Schiavone won well against Wozniak R1 but don't underestimat the teenage screamer Larcher de Brito. Main bet for the day is Darcis, also laid Sugiyama (al...

Another day without any real inspiration, but a few favourites with queries over them... Dokic - wins this easily if fit, unfortunately that's half the battle for her. Hanescu have come in for steady support against Navarro. He doesn't have much of a game for grass and the Spaniard did play well at Rosmalen last week, but we saw several players (Dancevic, Tanasugarn, Wickmayer) with great form from last week crumble yesterday. Kvitova hasn't done much on grass before but has good results indoors and on carpet. Kirilenko just ain't much good away from clay, 1-6 here. Kvitova first-up after ankle injury though. Sevastova came through qualifying well and I've been following her progress closely all year. She has bit of a future I think and the Bondarenko sisters are incredibly inconsistent. Voegele is a handy player and faces Venus Williams on centre court. Struggle to see her winning, but Venus often has a bit of a wobble in R1. Games handicap or to win first set migh...

As posted earlier, my outright previews are available, check Friday's post for the links. Match comments: Not overly confident about any match today so make of these what you will... Almagro has a bigger power game than Monaco, so should be better suited to grass of the two claycourters. Garcia Lopez is ridiculously short for a battle of two Latinos, but Calleri has had enough of tennis, expected to retire soon. The £12k R1 loser's cheque will pay for a few things in retirement. Karantantcheva was destined for stardom before she got done for steroids (at the age of 15!). Looked very strong in qualifying from all reports, could go a few rds here although Kleybanova goes well on grass. Mannarino is a French leftie who prefers fast indoor courts. Should go ok here, but Gicquel is an ironman for stamina, loves winning in five sets. Kulikova has been dogged by injury and illness for a few yrs. She's only 20 and is highly rated by Russian tennis folk. Sprem has won two ITF titles...

Don't expect to see any value at this end of the tournament, but this is massive overs. Raymond & Stosur (5.9) v Williams sisters. Raymond & Stosur have been ranked no.1 with different partners over the years and they've fought their way past seeds here. How on earth they are this price, I don't know. They'll play with a lot more guile and epxerience than the Williams sisters who will have played the singles final first and will then play their power game chasing victory.

Is there any value left at Wimbledon? I don't usually get involved much in the latter stages of tournaments, my logic being that all the form is disclosed and the prices are pretty accurate. But this one is a little over the odds. Lopez (2.5) v Safin - The leftie leads the h2h 4-1 so explain the price to me? Safin is playing very well, but so is Lopez. It's a value play.

Bit late sorry, nothing to get too excited about today... Clement (2.96) v Cilic - huge price for an experienced player who has fought well to get this far. Cilic is young and promising, but doesn't deserve to be a 1/2 shot. Gasquet (2.3) v Murray - explain to me why a guy ranked one position higher, with a 2-0 h2h record, and has won two grass court titles is the outsider in this contest?? Load up on the Frenchman - he loves grass, Murray just tolerates it. Doubles - Medina Garrigues & Ruano Pascual (2.98) vs the Williams sisters. Just taking a punt that the Williams sisters might be more focused on their singles and not care if they lose here. The Spanish duo are a very experienced combination as well. To trade: Mattek (8.6) v Serena Williams. Mattek has turned into a pretty handy grasscourt player and will cause Serena a few problems today. Trade out if she goes a set up.

Wozniacki (4.3) v Jankovic - the Danish girl is a former junior champion here and making big in-roads this year. Jankovic hasn't looked as dominant this week and her arduous schedule over the past two years will start taking its toll soon. Peng (2.18) v Kudryavtseva - the Chinese player is very good, don't get carried away with the Russian's win over Sharapova. Maria was awful and players ranked >100 will often pull off a big win and then suffer a big let-down in the very next match. Haas (3.4) v Murray - why is this guy such a big price? Oh yeah, he's playing the British superstar who can't possibly be beaten. Yeah right. Their record is 1-1 with the latest result going to Haas. The German is a very dangerous player when his body is right and he's great value in this tight clash. Youzhny (2.46) v Stepanek - can't see why there's such a big gap in price here. Stepanek was taken to five sets by Troicki who isn't that good, and he's coming o...

Bets: Clement (2.24) v Becker. The German simply isn't that good, Davydenko really didn't care on Tuesday, he just wanted to go home ASAP after the British press opened up the match-fixing stuff again. Can't see how Clement isn't favourite here, and a clear one. Dulko (2.6) v Davenport. The big Yank was extremely heavily strapped in R1 on her comeback from injury and illness, I'm banking on Dulko being far more capable of running her around. The steady (and stunning) Dulko is a very handy player and can definitely exploit any weaknesses in Davenport's fitness. Kleybanova (2.5) v Hantuchova. The stunning Slovak is coming back off a long injury break and faces a tougher opponent than in R1. She won't be allowed to make as many unforced errors here. I'd hoped the price would be a little higher on the Russian, but I think there is still some value left. Positions to trade: Hsieh (10) v Safina - the Taipei girl is very feisty, has a good Slam record and i...