Sport is made for betting

Early in the week Betfair shares cracked the £10 mark again for the first time in a while, things were starting to look up, particularly on the back of some hard work promoting the company to its float partners last week. But that price took a real pounding yesterday, dropping back to 917p overnight, with a 15p recovery so far this morning. What triggered it? Did the market panic over another cold spell which may cause racing cancellations? Did some 'expert' analyst put out a sell call or did the market not like Betfair's association with sacked Sky pundit Andy Gray? Who knows - I've given up trying to predict what the stock market will do on a day-to-day basis...

Four years after pulling out of a proposed deal because of concerns about US legality, Ladbrokes PLC have confirmed they are in discussions to buy 888 Holdings. It's been a tough few years for 888 who were valued at 240p per share back in 2006, but last week before the announcement were south of 50p (now 56p after peaking around 60p). According to this report though, Sportingbet (who are known to be looking around for merger and acquisition targets after recent talks with Unibet) and Harrah's could be sniffing around as well.... Meanwhile, in other trading news, Goldman Sachs have upgraded their Betfair rating from neutral to buy . Not much conflict of interest there considering they were the investment bank who floated them, and are now probably desperate to save face as the company trades more than £3 below IPO price, and over £5 below the peak during restricted trading.....

Britain starts to thaw out and Betfair's share price starts to rise again. As I surmised last week , the icy weather appeared to be the trigger behind the plunge in price down to a low of 1150p on Friday. Seven days later, it's up over a pound to 1263p. No different to bookmakers' share prices around Cheltenham, the Grand National and World Cup - good results = expectation of greater profits = share price rises. Loss of revenue via favourites all winning or lack of racing = decline.

Early last week - £15. Now £11.40 and falling. Is the bad UK weather, and thus cancellation of a lot of sporting events, particularly race meetings, the main reason behind it, or have some unfavourable pieces of advice made public by various brokerages hit hard? Take a look at the price graph yourself, it's not pretty to look at if you are holding shares. A drop after the early flurry of trading was always to be expected with so many smaller shareholders ready to sell up after years of waiting, but the sharpness of the decline has to be concerning for the firm. It's an over-reaction if you ask me - they are making good progress in the US with racing authorities. It will be slow going and the US can only go state-by-state for them, so don't expect a massive surge any time soon. On the other hand, long-term profits should be solid enough for the price not to fall much further....

There was an article yesterday behind the FT paywall attacking the valuation of Betfair and its growth prospects. This essentially echoed my thoughts in various posts here and discussions with a couple of investment firms. I don't see the price crashing, but I do think that growth prospects are limited in the short-term. Their big upshot will be if one of the biggest nations in the world opens up, such as China, India or the US. Don't hold your breath though, that might take a while. Betfair reply to analyst’s unfavourable share forecast After picking up three awards at the eGR Awards on Wednesday night, narrowly missing out on the Operator of the Year award, it’s neigh-on definite that attending on behalf Betfair will have left you quite the hangover to deal with. This will have been made significantly worse by a news item published on FT.com yesterday morning – something that isn’t curable by a Bloody Mary. After the founders floated it last month, Betfair’s stock was p...

Rival bookmaker Bodog don't mind a bit of innovative publicity, such as being first to price up who killed Archie Mitchell in EastEnders, which was then copied by several other firms. This time they have gone up with markets on the Betfair IPO valuation and the market moves are telling a story. Initially, under £1.4bn (remember, the figure quoted in most of the press was £1.5bn, which was their valuation in 2005 when Softbank purchased 23% of the company) was priced at 8/11 with over that figure available at evens. But money has come strongly for the under, forcing it down to 1/2, then 1/3. A Bodog spokesman said: “We have had 182 bets on the downside compared to just 22 on the upside. For a bet this niche this is quite a lot. Having a lot of experience in this industry I’m pretty certain these people will turn out to be right. “We even had people setting up multiple accounts so they could get three bets at the maximum of £500 a bet.” Sounds like a few ex-staff starting to ...

Betfair are officially floating. Betfair planning stock market flotation Betfair, the online sports betting provider, has said it plans to list its shares on the London Stock Exchange. The company, which is estimated to be worth £1.5bn, was founded 10 years ago.

One of Betfair's strongest allies in the press, Greg Wood of the Guardian isn't getting caught up in all the hype over the Betfair float. What prospects are left for growth? If the economy is flat, then why are they going ahead now? Is liquidity flat-lining? Betfair flotation may give potential investors that sinking feeling The men who founded Betfair are gamblers at heart, and reports over the weekend that they intend to press ahead with a float suggest that their appetite for a punt has not diminished. An oft-quoted estimate of the exchange's value is £1.5bn. These are uncertain times, but if it raises much less than that, it will be seen as a gamble gone astray. It is entirely possible that Andrew Black and Ed Wray, who own 25% of the business, are so confident about Betfair's long-term prospects that the immediate possibility of a double-dip recession is of little concern. Alternatively, it is conceivable that Betfair, in their opinion, is now as valuable ...

Seriously, which part of a newspaper spouts more crap - the front page of a tabloid, the back pages with transfer rumours during the silly season or the financial pages? For the umpteenth time, a Betfair float is 'imminent' according to the Sunday Times. You can head over there to read it if you believe in Rupert Murdoch's pay-per-view business model, or you can just read one of the many reports regurgitating the same thing like this one... Betfair gambles on £1.5bn flotation Gaming giant Betfair is set to press ahead with a £1.5 billion stock market flotation, it has been reported. The online betting exchange is expected to make an announcement on its plans for an initial public offering within a fortnight, according to the Sunday Times newspaper. This story reeks of a Ronaldo or Fabregas transfer, it just keeps going on and on and the papers just keep speculating. If you keep throwing darts randomly at dates, eventually they might hit it. If Betfair do go now, t...

The rumours were all saying the company was primed for an October float but lacklustre results from recent flotations may push it back to 2011 or beyond. A study reported by The Financial Times has shown that more than half of the big "initial public offerings" in Europe this year had shares trading below their issue price, leaving investors sitting on a loss. Betfair to play waiting game over flotation (subscription) ) ( free link ) THE prospects of being able to buy shares in Betfair from as soon as next month appear to have taken a knock from the performance of other Stock Market listings in 2010. In the absence of a commitment from Betfair on its long-mooted Stock Market flotation at a value of as much as £1.5 billion, evidence from other firms appears to show the timing may be wrong. . . . Preparing for such a massive sea change in the company's ownership is not without its difficulties, but thoughts that October was the favoured month for a Betfair flo...

Peter Webb is reporting via rumours on SkyNews, that the float is set for the autumn . There have been rumours around mentioning that period as time for the float... but the same could be said for a long list of dates over the past five years. Stay tuned for an announcement.... Here's more from SkyNews's Mark Kleinman . It will be a quick turnaround to list as early as September, but in reality, they have been planning this for years, it was only a matter of when.

Not that Betfair will admit it, but the Racing Post today is reporting that Betfair have shelved plans to float this summer as world markets sink back into volatility, particularly over the Greek economic crisis. Betfair put off flotation due to volatile market By JonLees 7:24AM 18 MAY 2010 BETFAIR is understood to have postponed plans for a £1.5billion flotation onthe stock exchange this summer as a result of uncertainty in the world markets. The volatility in the sector, which endured another roller-coaster period last week, is believed to have led the betting exchange's advisers to counsel against a stock market flotation or IPO (initial public offering) which had been tipped to happen in July. In the past six months the company completed a string of high-level recruitments to prepare for a flotation which had been tipped for July. It would have marked the summit of a spectacular rise by the company, which in the course of less than ten years has become the largest online sport...

Betfair have hired a Morgan Stanley director as head of strategy as the IPO gets closer. For them, the best thing that can happen this year is a World Cup with all the favourites winning, bookies taking a hiding and Betfair just laughing all the way to the bank. But can they have all the prospectus documents ready in time for a float this year, if they wait that long? This isn't the first float-related hire they've had, they have been making them since 2005 and the media still haven't tired of predicting when it will happen. Just get it over with.... Betfair IPO moves closer with Morgan Stanley director hire Sportingbet are stepping up to the London Stock Exchange (LSE) from the Alternative Index Market (AIM) next month, a move showing they really have graduated to mixing it with the big boys. Their financial reports are quite interesting. Unlike the British retail bookies who were moaning about all the favourites winning and no draws in the early part of the Premier League...

The Times again having a guess. Betfair stock market punt Betfair, the online gaming exchange, has selected two investment banks to advise it on a £1.5 billion stock-market flotation. The financial columns have been speculating on this for years now. If they keep persevering with the speculation, one day it might actually happen!