Skip to main content

Next Manager markets

originally posted here 10 February 2009


Chelsea and Portsmouth are managerless. Bring on the chaos that is the Next Manager Market!

These markets can be absolute gold mines, but also very dangerous. As is the nature of them, the markets will fluctuate heavily based purely on rumours. People will put two and two together and come up with seven. ALWAYS be aware that humans make the decisions to interview, hire etc, and information always gets out. The worst case of this was when Harry Redknapp went back to Portsmouth - he held a press conference saying he wasn't leaving Southampton, meanwhile his price was getting hammered on Betfair. Watch the market constantly - if the market isn't behaving according to normal volatility.

The best manager markets are the ones which last a few weeks or longer, however I doubt this time that's an option - unless caretaker managers are appointed until the end of the season, which are NOT counted by betting firms. The Spurs manager job when Jacques Santini got it (2004) and the Ireland national job (2007) markets were brilliant - each had at least six different guys who became favourite and/or odds-on, making it a layer's delight.

Tips to profit on next Manager markets.

1. The earlier you get in the better. As soon as you see the headline on Sky Sports News, start thinking about who might get the job, and wait for the Betfair market to surface.

2. Don't punt the market. You want to lay a book by laying as many different managers as possible.

3. No need to take big risk. Just take a fiver here, tenner there, two quid there etc, building up a buffer (big green) on everyone else.

4. Don't be desperate to close out.

5. When you see a price dropping, almost invariably will it drift back out again. So get in there and lay some.

6. Don't leave lots of offers (backs and lays) up on the screen near market prices (just under/over current market) when you won't be online for a while. If Sky Sports News reports a big rumour, then the market could move severely and you will lay one runner and back all the rest.

7. Don't be afraid to speculate at big odds for a couple of quid if there is logic for why that person might be interested in the job, or why people might think they'd be interested.

8. Keep a level head.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,
Post a Comment
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur
14 comments
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more