Cheltenham 2025 - Day 4 preview

Still in front at the time of writing, let's keep it that way!

TRIUMPH HURDLE

The championship race of juvenile hurdling. This used to be the only option for juveniles, now there's a handicap as well (ah bless him, Puturhandstogether) which see trainers be more realistic with their plans if not part of the big stables. Willie Mullins has a ridiculous 11 of the 18 runners here, although none in single figures.

1. Blue Lemons

- weird to see a son of Blue Point here, but he is out of a Galileo mare. One start for a nice win at Gowran Park but there'll be several better than him here.

2. Charlus

- struggled to beat Holy See on Irish debut after being bought out of France. That horse finished a mile back in the Fred Winter.

3. East India Dock

- useful on the Flat, now very good over hurdles. Has won all three starts in this discipline, easily over Hot Fuss, Static and Stencil respectively who were all in the Fred Winter. Two of those wins were here (one on each course), that's the strongest formline here. Hard to beat.

4. Gibbs Island

- handy on the Flat in Ireland but managed only one win from 15 runs. Switched disciplines and has won both starts. The latest win at Haydock in the Victor Ludorum is a bit short of this level needed to win but he can at least be competitive.

5. Hello Neighbour

- unbeaten in four starts, two on the Flat, two over hurdles. Not the type to win by a dozen lengths, he does just enough (collective margin of those wins <5L). And I love those types, as they tend to be under-rated in the markets. Won the Irish G1 equivalent at the Dublin Racing Festival. Trainer & jockey have a winner already this week, big chance.

6. Larzac

- purchased out of France after one run. McManus & Mullins, no idea how to line him up, market will tell the story.

7. Lulamba

- 1/1 in France and also in Britain. Looked impressive but hard to gauge his level based on the Ascot runner-up failing since. This stable and connections have gone well in this race before, there'll be substance to his lofty reputation.

8. Marche d'Aligre

- owners wanted Gold Cup day tickets. No.

9. Mondo Man

- came here with a big reputation having been competitive in the French classics and the King Edward VII Stakes behind Calandagan. But he's yet to back it up over hurdles, second to Lulamba at Ascot followed by a third at odds-on in the Adonis at Kempton - running too freely each time. First-time hood applied in the hope it settles him down. Unlikely.

10. Pappano

- decent on the Flat but he ain't winning this on hurdling debut. No idea where he ranks on jockey bookings but it's not in the top 5 for Mullins.

11. Poniros

- another first-time hurdler in the Championship race. The owner (Brighton FC and Energumene owner Tony Bloom) can afford tickets, why the need to run him for free ones? One thing favouring this race rather than the Fred Winter is that to get a handicap mark, he would have needed to have run at least twice (or is it back up to three?) before. Ran second in the London Gold Cup, a traditionally strong 3yo Flat handicap, at Newbury last May. Has the talent, watch for him next season.

12. Too Bossy For Us

- see previous two runners. Handy on Flat, first jumps start. 

13. Willy De Houelle

- highly regarded French import, based on running second to the new jumps stallion Nietzsche Has. But he hasn't lived up to it in Ireland, running second at 1/4 first time out in a G3, then sixth (G2) and fourth (G1) behind Hello Neighbour. Will be somewhere back in the pack.

14. Lady Vega Allen

- best of the Mullins' "eleventet", going by the booking of Paul Townend. She's been close to Hello Neighbour in the big Irish races, remembering that one doesn't string them out. EW chance for sure.

15. Lumiere De Large

- French filly, narrowly beaten at her only start over hurdles, yet to start on this side of the Channel. Low expectations.

16. Opec

- stablemate of East India Dock, set to provide the pace in the race perhaps? Ran well early in the season claiming three wins but shown up in recent starts up in grade. No.

17. Place De La Nation

- ran second against the older mare Karoline Banbou (got within 2.5L but winner was eased right down) on Irish debut. Stud-owned, hoping for a distant third for the black type. 

18. Sainte Lucie

- another Mullins runner bought out of France, this time for Rich Ricci, or more correctly for tax purposes, Mrs Rich Ricci... Won easily on Irish debut on New Year's Eve then started favourite in the Juvenile G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival and ran dead last. Has to be better than that, but Townend has chosen another. Might be placed at decent odds.

The hype has all been East India Dock vs Lulamba but I'm expecting Hello Neighbour to really give this a shake. Willie has to get one in the frame surely. 

Hello Neighbour

East India Dock

Lady Vega Allen

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COUNTY HURDLE

Probably the best handicap of the week, but no easier to unravel.

2. Absurde

- won this race last year, coming off two runs post running seventh in the Melbourne Cup. This time he hasn't run since finishing fifth at Flemington. Paul Townend rode him last year, this time he's jumped ship to Kargese. Up 8lbs from last season which shouldn't be an issue.

4. Ethical Diamond

- only won his maiden a month ago on a bog track. Would need to inspire him to bigger & better things as his previous runs over hurdles had been rather lacklustre.

7. Kargese

- talented mare who has never finished worse than second from nine starts, all over hurdles. Her seconds include relatively close finishes behind Majborough and Sir Gino - both G1 stars. After taking on all the big festivals last season - Leopardstown Xmas, DRF, Cheltenham, Aintree and then Punchestown, she was given a good break and resumed in a G2 Mares Hurdle at Ascot. She started 2/5 that day but was fresh and rusty, finishing runner-up behind Take No Chances who ran third behind Lossiemouth on Tuesday. This will be a hectic big field handicap (although only 16 runners rather than the usual 26), much different to what she has encountered before. It take a special kind of race craft to be able to deal with that but I imagine with the limitless resources at Closutton, they can prepare for that!

10. McLaurey

- McManus plot horse who is a different animal this season. Has been racing in big fields, three maidens (2/20, 3/19 before finally winning against 16 rivals) then into a Listed Handicap Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival. Bumped up a hefty 16lbs for that win, hard to tell how much is up his sleeve from just five starts under Rules (plus one PTP). 

12. Valgrand

- started the season well with a win and a second in Grade 2s here in the autumn, but not so successful in handicaps in December as the ground got softer. However, this is the Skelton stable. For the good horses, it's all about Cheltenham. There's always a murmuring about a virus going through the stable etc., conveniently coinciding with a drop in form in handicaps to bring the rating down 

13. Lark In The Mornin

- won last year's Fred Winter but hasn't fired a shot in two runs since, both times as favourite. Handicap rating management or out of form? Can't have him.

14. Irish Panther

- maiden from nine starts across PTP, bumpers and hurdles, but only once out of the front three, and all in fields of at least 10 runners. Second to Fact To File and third to Ballyburn in his bumpers show talent from the start of his career. This season he has moved to the Eddie & Patrick Harty stable and started taking on handicaps - third in a novice at Xmas followed by a third to McLaurey at the DRF (first time hood, received 8lbs from the winner). The young claimer aboard went too early last time, making a move mid-race from the back, then becoming a sitting duck for those with the perfect sit. A word in his ear from the trainer and hopefully he bides his time better here. Tongue tie added. Definitely worth a look each-way.

Have to lean to Absurde to repeat the deal here but I'll certainly be backing Irish Panther EW as well.

Absurde

Irish Panther

McLaurey

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MARES CHASE

One of those races that just bloat the Festival, we just don't need it.

Dinoblue is a class above these mares at two miles - but this race is over half a mile further, and she was beaten up the hill by Limerick Lace last year. Just can't get enthused about it. Head to the bar ahead of the big races.

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ALBERT BARTLETT

The beloved Potato Race (it's a brand of spuds) for three-mile novice hurdlers. Bookies love this race - it's had ONE winner under 10/1 in the last decade. With a record like that, I'd better go through all of them then. Winners are usually unexposed and stepping up in trip.

1. Argento Boy

- one of six from Willie Mullins. Won his maiden in the mud last time by 15L (SP 4/7) at his third attempt, was previously pulled up (SP 8/13) after a promising hurdling debut running one length second to today's favourite, The Big Westerner (SP 11/10, soft track). Not at top of my list.

2. Ballybow

- ran second to Air of Entitlement (won yesterday) in a maiden at Down Royal on St Stephen's Day, then went on to win his maiden at Naas a month later. He went out a fortnight later, stepping up for 2.25m out to the full three miles in a three-runner G3, making numerous errors but snuck home as odds-on fav, beating a horse that beat him by 23L over two miles just 10 weeks earlier. Gordon Elliott hasn't notched a winner yet at the Festival, but did have two winners yesterday at Limerick.

3. Derryhassen Paddy

- a smokey tip by a few on the preview circuit. He's unbeaten in four starts (PTP, bumper and two hurdles), all on soft or heavy tracks. One thing he does have is plenty of steel. He's been headed in both his hurdle starts and then knuckled down to win - that's a trait you want in a racehorse. Trainer already has a winner this week and loves working with stayers.

4. First Confession

- a first season hurdler, he has two solid wins at Ascot, got to the front and kept on running. Between those runs he got left behind (beaten 68L) in the G1 Challow at Newbury, won by The New Lion, and his other run was here back in October, his Rules debut, when third, beaten 14.5L behind Potters Charm (fifth, beaten 18L behind The New Lion in the Turners this week). His galloping style suggests the step up in distance will be advantage and he'll just keep on going. Not ridiculous at all to suggest he has a chance,

5. Fishery Lane

- won his maiden last time, receiving 8lbs from the runner-up. In his other hurdle start, he was beaten 10L by Inn At The Park, the rank outsider here. He's a messy jumper and needs to improve that markedly to compete here.

6. Flicker Of Hope

- very intriguing runner. Rather than mixing with all his rivals in novice company throughout the season, he went straight into handicaps and his four runs over this trip have reaped first of 12, first of 16, first of 20 and third of 25, beaten two lengths. Naturally the quality of those races has increased along the way and the latter two races were Listed contests. I'd argue those sort of races are more valuable for battle hardening a racehorse than six-runner conditions race run at a canter. Loses his 5lb claimer here, switching to the experience of Keith Donoghue instead.

7. Inn At The Park

- disappointed last time after winning at a similar distance the time before. Danny Mullins rides which means he could be second or third string here. Stable might have a reason to retain hope? Stable has won this three times in the last decade, at 18/1, 5/1 and 16/1.

8. Intense Approach

- a four-time winner this season, including at this trip. His last run was a victory in the Scottish Stayers' Novice Hurdle, not a regular route to success at the Festival but he did win it comfortably, taking a step forward from his previous level. Likely to still need a bit more but perhaps there's more in the tank.

9. Jasmin De Vaux

- winner of last year's Champion Bumper who has been naturally expected to go onto G1 wins over hurdles. But his jumping is ropey at best. While managing to win his maiden at first attempt (SP 1/3), he's then been pitched against The Yellow Clay and Final Demand in G1s, finishing fourth on both occasions, with plenty of comments about mistakes in his jumping. Racing UK this week have been plugging a service called RaceIQ, analysing the quality of jumping and it's not a good report - bad enough to highlight as a big negative. That's good enough for me.

10. Jax Junior

- won novice hurdles at Doncaster and Ascot by double-digit margins before tiring late in his first step up into Listed company (but back 2f in trip). Going up in distance can only suit (by an Irish Derby winner out of a mare sired by Ascot Gold Cup winner), likely to set the pace. 

11. Jet Blue

- had been running over far shorter trips in France before being purchased and sent to leading French trainer Davide Cottin. Obviously targetting the Festival, he was sent on a reconnaissance mission in December, winning the G2 trial version of this race. He won easily despite a few mistakes at his first look at an undulating track. Would need to tidy up his jumping to handle the pressure of this race.

12. Jig's Forge

- clear maiden winner on Rules debut in November, then disappointed in the G2 River Don six weeks ago behind several of these. A long way short of the level required here.

13. Ma Shantou

- winning weaker races then failing when stepping up in class. Without a reason for the failure in the River Don, when favourite, he looks a long way short of the mark.

14. Nativehill

- after a brief stint pointing, he kicked off under Rules with a third over the line in a novice hurdle, before stepping back to a Huntingdon maiden and winning by 16L with a first time tongue tie - but that's a very flattering margin as the horse he was challenging fell at the last. Needs a huge step forward to threaten getting into the frame, but is a half-brother to Belshill who won the Irish and Punchestown Gold Cups over three miles.

15. Port Joulain

- won a Punchestown maiden in the mud back in January. Doesn't seem too high in the Mullins ranking.

16.Sounds Victorius

- finished behind Wingmen and Jasmin De Vaux in the Dublin Racing Festival G1 Novice, no reason to expect him to turn the tables on those rivals.

17. Wendigo

- brings The New Lion formline from the Challow, running on for second there (SP 25/1) before an easy kill at Wetherby (SP 1/11) last month, dropping slightly in trip. The extra distance should only benefit him but he's starting to look relatively short in price considering how competitive this race is.

18. Wingmen

- four starts over hurdles, for a maiden win, a novice third, then two G1 Novices finishing 11/12L behind The Yellow Clay and Final Demand, both times ahead of Jasmin De Vaux. Bred to stay even further, can the Elliott stable finally crack a winner? They've had seven runners finish in the first three this week from a big contingent.

19. Yellow Car

- third behind Jet Blue at Cheltenham in December, won a G2 at Doncaster in January. Still quite a way off the level required here.

20. The Big Westerner 

- the only mare in the race and gets a 7lb concession against the males. Won comfortably on St Stephen's Day, ahead of Mozzie's Sister who then finished a similar distance behind Wingmen at the Dublin Racing Festival.

A wide-open race with multiple form lines and not that many that you can confidently put a line through. Don't be afraid to swing wide on this one...

First Confession

Flicker of Hope

Derryhassen Paddy  

Wendigo

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THE GOLD CUP

Galopin Des Champs goes for his third consecutive Gold Cup and there's little reason to oppose him. There are question marks against every one of his rivals, I think this field is weaker than in his previous wins.

Galopin Des Champs

Banbridge

Ahoy Senor

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HUNTERS' CHASE

Never like these races, don't understand the point of them so I'm not going to waste my time. No doubt tomorrow several beers in I'll do two minutes of form study and back something though...

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MARTIN PIPE HURDLE

One for the conditional jockeys. 

Kopeck De Mee has been the talking horse of the festival for months but where's the fun in backing the favourite, who has never run outside of France, in the Get Out Stakes of the Festival? Numerous chances, here's a few comments from a quick glance.

2. Wodhooh

- six from six over hurdles, pays for that in weight but still has class. Might get to a silly price if they keep coming for the favourite.

5. Minella Sixo

- this one links up with several others today, particularly from the Albert Bartlett. A second behind Potters Charm, third behind The Big Westerner and was running well last time out before falling in the Pertemps Qualifier. 25/1 is big enough to compensate for his error last time.

15. Electric Mason

- ran twice against The New Lion in Nov/Dec, finishing in reasonable proximity. Watch Wendigo in the Albert Bartlett to see how the strength of that form holds up. Won without any real effort at Fontwell in January. Not the worst.

19. Punctuation

- not far away in two recent hurdles maintaining a manageable handicap, won a conditional jockeys' race at Aintree a couple of years ago at big odds. Henderson trained, worth a look. 

22. East India Express

- the form runner of the Henderson trio, he had to win those last two races just to get in the field and today's jock, Freddie Gordon, has been aboard both times. Has tended to run at the flat courses, Ascot, Kempton and Newbury. They took him to the more undulating Punchestown for the festival there and he unseated. 

Can't say this has been a comprehensive study of the last, but I'll go with

East India Express

Minella Sixo

Punctuation

Electric Mason

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Bets of the Day

Hello Neighbour

Absurde (Win) and Irish Panther (EW)

First Confession & Flicker Of Hope (both EW)

Just sit back and enjoy Galopin des Champs

and depending on how you're going at 5pm, back as many of those I've put up in the last as you want!