Ahead on both days so far, long may it continue! As per yesterday, not a day with the razzle dazzle of the bookends but a decent-looking betting day.
MARES' NOVICE
Handy race this, quite a few chances.
2. Aurora Vega
- will always be well supported being out of the mighty mare Quevega and in the W.Mullins camp. Has won all of her completed runs (three) over hurdles, with the one failure being when she pulled up at 1/10 at Wexford one day. She's got a decent engine this one but faces her toughest test here.
9. Jubilee Alpha
- the first of two Paul Nicholls runners, she has been cleaning up mares' races at Taunton & Windsor with relative ease, and the two horses who have been second to her in those will be outsiders here. Harry Cobden said it was his best ride of the week. A strong traveller, she will look a big chance coming down the hill but how strong are her rivals this time?
10. Just A Rose
- won her first race under Rules by 26L when the jockey just let her go. How much was left in the tank? On that note, probably more exposed that most of her rivals. Excellent claimer Freddie Gingell keeps the ride.
12. Karoline Banbou
- not sure what she beat at Fairyhouse in her maiden, but she could have won by 10-15L if not eased right down and the front two did clear out 17L ahead of third. In the McManus colours, two winners already at time of writing, who knows how much she has up her sleeve?
13. Kimi De Mai
- showed plenty of talent in France winning three bumpers in a row, before starting odds-on in her debut for Willie Mullins behind Sixandahalf in January. Could only run third that day after fluency issues, beaten 16L. If they can tidy that up, there's obviously decent ability there.
16. Magic McColgan
- roughie with a chance. Second and first in her opening hurdle starts, which had to be rushed in order to qualify her for this race. She jumped sharply left at her last two obstacles at Punchestown (a right-handed track), she should be better off going the other way here. Plus they've had two months to work on that and her hurdle rating hasn't surpassed her bumper figure just yet - so there's plenty of improvement to be had. Could run into a place at big odds.
17. Maughreen
- Bit of a hype horse, being related to the great Faugheen. Won her bumper on soft ground with ease, then had some issues and was off the track for a year. Resumed at Punchestown in a Mares' Maiden Hurdle in heavy going and didn't look quite as impressive, but still won by 5L. Wears a hood first time but Paul Townend has opted for Aurora Vega instead.
21. Sixandahalf
- began her hurdling career with a bang when winning her maiden at Fairyhouse by a dozen lengths in January without raising a sweat. That form though is hard to line up as those she beat are all still maidens and they were strung out like Brown's cows, fourth (of 14) coming in 45L behind the winner. Her talent on the Flat was shown in her final start in that discipline, running third in the Cesarewitch, beaten 1.25L. Deserves to be near the top of the market, but maybe a touch too short now.
24. Galileo Dame
- a 4yo who gets a 10lb weight allowance under these terms. Trained by Joseph O'Brien who tends to be better with younger horses (trained the Juvenile Handicap winner on Tuesday), she was very talented on the Flat, starting favourite in the Cheshire Oaks on the way to a Classic campaign but didn't quite reach those heights, running fourth at Chester and later tenth in the Irish Oaks. Later in her 3yo season, she ran second twice in Listed staying races, including to the accomplished stayer Hamish in the Finale Stakes. Switched to hurdles, she has maintained the run of seconds - four in a row now, behind Wendrock (fifth in the Juvenile Hurdle on Tues off topweight) and Hello Neighbour, who'll be a leading chance in the Triumph on Friday, in a G1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. Should go close but needs to convert her chances into victories (record of 10:1-6-0).
Really good betting race here, reckon there might be several betting moves tomorrow.
Jubilee Alpha
Karoline Banbou
Magic McColgan
Aurora Vega
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JACK RICHARDS NOVICE HANDICAP CHASE
A change in format for this race, was a level weights contest last year, now it's very hard.
1. Springwell Bay
- won a Premier Handicap Chase here on New Year's Day by 9L, ran second to the Arkle winner Jango Baie the run before. Carries plenty of weight but has earned his handicap mark and has won with such imposts before, albeit not in a big handicap.
2. Firefox
- always around the mark but doesn't hit the front that often over obstacles (2/10). This looks like his first attempt in a handicap, he's normally at level weights against the best in that sphere. Not sure the others would be classy enough for that. Genuine chance.
3. Caldwell Potter
- looked very promising in Ireland as a novice hurdler and changed hands for €740k at a dispersal sale. Fair to say he hasn't quite lived up to that price since switching sides of the Irish Sea. Has started favourite all three runs in Britain, won the first at 2/11, placed at 11/10 and 4/6 so he's definitely a bookies' favourite. He has plenty of room in his handicap, it's still 5lbs below his hurdles mark (should usually be 10-15lbs higher) assuming he can jump well enough. At 16/1, you can take a few risks as opposed to his recent starting prices. Has had two months off, hopefully his jumping has improved significantly in that time.
5. Answer To Kayf
- put it all together last time in a Novice Handicap Chase at Naas, winning by 12L, after running fifth behind Lecky Watson (winner on Wednesday) and Slade Steel (Supreme winner last season). Ran fourth in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle last Festival and handicaps are definitely more his go. Gets 5lb relief via his regular claiming jockey, would probably be quite a bit shorter if he had a more fashionable trainer or jockey. Worth a look.
6. Asian Master
- one of three for Willie Mullins, unusually ridden by an amateur. However, he always rides this one - his wife owns it. The horse is no slouch either. He ran fourth in last year's Supreme (just behind Firefox) then got within 7L of Majborough at his chase debut. Had a significant weight advantage and was sent out close to favourite next time but didn't finish the race off. Steps up four furlongs, can't get excited about him.
8. Nürburgring
- talented young chaser, ran fourth in the Triumph Hurdle last season, won the Galway Hurdle over the summer, then fourth in a couple of big Flat handicaps in September before stepping up to the big fences. He's not won any of his three chase starts but file that under 'Education for a big handicap'. He was disappointing at Xmas time, being beaten 18L at Leopardstown but he had no rhythm from the start, I think we can just write that one off. First time at the trip but if he runs two miles on the Flat, then this trip should be no issue.
14. Pic Roc
- down in the weights and ridden by a jockey in obscene form this year, Ben Jones. But he's allergic to winning - just one victory and six seconds from 11 National Hunt starts. Don't leave him out of your Placepot.
16. Moon D'Orange
- very useful horse on a handy mark here. Has come along nicely as a chaser this season, running in strong fields, retaining his rating before finally winning a G3 Premier Handicap here in late January. He came from last on the turn to hit the front approaching the last, made an error, stood up and kept going to win. Goes up only 6lb for that, I don't think that's an issue at all.
Good race.
Moon D'Orange
Answer To Kayf
Caldwell Potter
Firefox
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PERTEMPS HURDLE
Always a tricky race to decipher, horses need to qualify by running in the top four of a qualifier. It was previously top five or even six, and it meant you had a lot of non-triers saving their handicap mark with very safe runs, that looked ordinary in the form book. As such, not one of my favourite races. You're either in the know or you're not.
The Henderson stable say Jeriko Du Reponet can't be beaten, watch the money come for him. Throwing in Will The Wise and Harbour Lake that I've heard whispers for.
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RYANAIR CHASE
This revolves around one horse:
3. Fact To File
- got frustrated running into Galopin Des Champs so he's lowered his eyes for this race, the 'compensation Gold Cup'. It's still a Grade 1, just not what you'd call a championship race. He won the John Durkan (2m3.5f) in November, beating off GDC over the last jump and then fighting off a dogged Spillane's Tower who came hard at him. Was more suited to that trip first-up, but was put back in his box over further. Has run twice before at the Festival, running second in the Champion Bumper and won the G1 Brown Advisory over 3m last year. Should win this but we've said that about a few favourites this week!
1. Djelo
- a consistent campaign this season, running 2121, landing a couple of Grade 2s, the Peterborough and Denman Chases. Got walloped by Protektorat in between though. Ran third in the Turners here last year.
2. Envoi Allen
- this is his seventh trip to the Festival, winning three times over the years. But of course that means he is old. Can't be backing 11yos in a strong edition of this race.
6. Il Est Francais
- funnily enough, he is French and loves the flat jumping tracks of Auteuil and Kempton. How will he go with the undulations of Cheltenham? We don't know as he's never run on them before - his two British trips simply fit well into his French calendar. We do know he is quick.
9. Protektorat
- won this race last year in the mud and needs it to rain heavily to boost his chances. Won the Fleur de Lys at Windsor by 23L, ahead of Djelo, in January on soft ground with a career-best RPR. Going well but need that rain.
Fact To File to win, and then move up to the Gold Cup next season when GDC starts to get a bit old.
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STAYERS HURDLE
1. Bob Olinger
- 10yo with a 3/3 record at Cheltenham and 1/1 on Good-to-Soft going. His best RPR of 165, recorded in Jan 2024, would win five of the last 10 Stayers' Hurdles. He might be just going over the hill, but an 11yo did win this at 33/1 two years ago.
7. Home By The Lee
- loves winning the weaker Irish staying hurdles but then comes up short here. Has had three cracks at this race for sixth, fifth and third. Can't see him improving on that record.
9. Lucky Place
- the big improver of this season. After running placings behind Tellherthename, Golden Ace and Langer Dan last season, this campaign has seen him claim a pair of G2s beating Champion Hurdle winner Golden Ace twice. His ratings have stepped accordingly in both wins and should he improve further for the step up to three miles, he's in the mix.
11. Mystical Power
- an absolute blueblood by Galileo out of Annie Power, he was tearing the novice hurdle division apart last season, winning G1s at Aintree and Punchestown after running second here in the Supreme. But then something happened over the summer - he's lost the plot, beaten out of sight in the G1 Fighting Fifth (when starting 6/5 fav), and again in a Leopardstown G1 at Xmas. He's had 10 weeks off to work on it, steps up a mile and has a huge amount of talent. But probably needs a lot of rain.
13. Rocky's Diamond
- young stayer progressing well. Ran in the Savills Hurdle at Leopardstown behind Home By The Lee and Bob Olinger, then won the G2 Galmoy at Gowran Park. Probaby too inexperienced for this year's edition, look out for him next year.
14. Teahupoo
- won this race last year and third in 2023 on soft ground. Simply loves it wet, winning eight of nine with the track soft or worse. Any time 'good' is in the official description - he hasn't run a place with his best rating a few notches down. Think he'll drift considerably if there's no significant rain.
15. The Wallpark
- yet another JP McManus runner but this time trained by Gordon Elliot who isn't racking up the winners at the moment. Has made steady progress in his rating this season since stepping to longer trips, he won a Pertemps Hurdle qualifier here back in October and then ran fourth in the G1 Long Walk at Ascot, storming home from a mile back over the last obstacle. A bit more belief from the jockey could put him in this race.
Will be watching the weather closely. Without significant rain (noting this is a different course for the last two days, switching from Old to New), I have to be against Teahupoo. Bob Olinger and The Wallpark look like the two to trouble him.
Bob Olinger
The Wallpark
Lucky Place
Teahupoo
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TRUSTATRADER PLATE
Too hard for me. Wise judges I've seen have come up with Gemirande, Masaccio and Jordans.
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KIM MUIR CHASE
A handicap chase for amateur jockeys. Not for me. The better judges are on Nine Graces and Midnight Our Fred.
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Bets of the day
Jubilee Alpha and Magic McColgan EW
Moon D'Orange - best of the day
Jeriko Du Reponet
Fact To File (need 2.5)
A nibble on Bob Olinger, mostly against Teahupoo if ground stays good-to-soft and <3.0.
Leaving the last two races unless I've had a great day.
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