Never the strongest of day for betting, at least for me. The Festival used to be three days and packed to the brim with class. Over four days, the middle two cards lack the razzle dazzle.
TURNERS NOVICES
Wednesday kicks off with quite a competitive race, for the mid-distance novice hurdlers. The Irish have won 10 of the last 11 editions, and Willie Mullins has six in the race.
1. Final Demand
- winner of three from three and dominant every time. Switched from the three-mile Albert Bartlett back to 2m5f, doubt it will hurt his chances. Mullins & Townsend, very promising.
5. Kel Histoire
- recent McManus purchase who looks destined for a staying chaser campaign in future years. Was running on late to take second against Salvator Mundi in the G2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown in January, that winner ran fifth in the Supreme. In the mix for the placings.
6. Kiss Will
- very inexperienced with just the one start over hurdles - an effortless win in a Fairyhouse maiden. Who knows what's in his future but he's been thrown in the deep end here!
7. Potters Charm
- was undefeated in four hurdles starts until his last visit here in late Jan, trailing 8.5L behind Sixmilebridge. He may bounce back from that but still a bit of a gap to the top of the market here. Tongue tie added.
8. Sixmilebridge
- took a big step forward to beat Potters Charm last time, while he did have a 5lb advantage, he wasn't stopping. Needs a bit more to beat the favourites, but that's not out of the question.
9. Supersundae
- one of six entries for Willie Mullins. Started 4/1 against Final Demand last time but had muscle issues and was pulled up in running. If you can forgive that performance, the 50/1 is huge. Wears a hood for the first time.
10. The New Lion
- won the G1 Challow over the Xmas period with arrogance, Harry Skelton just steered him through the pack and didn't even urge him on until he was over the last when he just cantered away from them. He's not been stretched yet, just how much is left in the tank. The Challow has not had a great history on turning out Festival winners but you'll find few that won as easily as he did.
11. The Yellow Clay
- four from four over hurdles, still a bit to find on ratings but still inexperienced enough to take a step forward.
I was on track at Newbury to see The New Lion win the Challow, he was awesome in victory, while the stable was having a relatively quiet run. He can win again.
The New Lion
Final Demand
Kel Histoire
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BROWN ADVISORY
Three and a bit miles for the novice chasers.
1. Ballyburn
- 11 starts in his career, only two seconds (on hurdles debut and behind superstar Sir Gino over a shorter trip at Xmas) blot his copybook. The question is can he stay three miles? He's had four runs at 2m4f-2m5f and won them all comfortably so why wouldn't he? The ground will be relatively dry so it shouldn't take anything extra out of him and there are plenty of three-milers in his pedigree. Has been crunched in the last 24hrs, liked him around 1.9 mark, now much shorter.
2. Better Days Ahead
- not to be confused with Brighterdaysahead. Two from three over fences, was just beaten by Croke Park in the G1 Novice Chase at Leopardstown at the Xmas Festival, while the favourite put 5L on the same horse at his next run. Talented, but I think he's just waiting for the favourite to fail to take his chance.
3. Dancing City
- multiple G1 winner in staying hurdles, now it's his turn as a chaser. Capable on dry surfaces but probably needs the mud to negate the quality of the favourite. Same stable, they'll know the pecking order.
5. Lecky Watson
- has won his two chase starts but steps up half a mile here. Failed or perhaps just outclassed over three miles as a hurdler, this is no easier.
7. Stellar Story
- won the 3m Albert Bartlett as last year's Festival in the mud. Beaten just a neck, conceding 5lbs, behind Better Days Ahead, last time but the ground was Soft/Heavy. Don't think he has the class when it's not soft underfoot.
Ballyburn comfortably but only if 1.8 is available.
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CORAL CUP
Always a a highly competitive handicap, did manage to back a big-priced winner of this a few years ago, let's try again...
2. Ballyadam
- goes well at the Festival, usually in big handicaps but never quite wins. Record of 2552, runner-up to Langer Dan last year off a similar preparation.
5. Colonel Mustard
- always thereabouts in these races but just doesn't win. 1/22 over hurdles and fences, but ten seconds and six thirds. Make sure you get extended place terms if backing him each-way. To be ridden by the hot 5lb claimer of the moment, Tiernan Power Roche.
6. Jimmy Du Seuil
- drops down from Grade 1 races into his first handicap. Ran second to Ballyburn over this trip here last year (beaten 13L), but then two months later the gap was extended by another 40L. Hasn't run since, so he's first-up for 10 months. Willie's a great trainer but doesn't have the same sort of strike rate in handicaps.
7. Sa Fureur
- mixes hurdles and chases but with similar success but arrives after a 10-week break after an awful run over the Xmas period. He was 5/1 fav in a Listed handicap at Leopardstown but dropped out and ran last.
11. Impose Toi
- reliable performer with six wins from ten starts, and yet to miss the frame. He's been carrying some hefty weights to victory, in fact he's never carried a weight this low since he was purchased out of France after two bumpers in. Probably could have won a couple more of those four other races too. Nico de Boinville gets back on board, he's three from four aboard. Comes off a 102 day break on top of an 11 month break. Obviously a bit brittle but Henderson can handle these types and McManus has eternal patience (and a shitload of money). Adds cheekpieces for the first time.
13. Bunting
- hype horse who won easily on hurdling debut and then has missed the mark the last five times - three times as a 4yo pitched into G1s and twice just disappointing. If he didn't have Bloom & Mullins as connections with Townsend aboard, he'd be triple the price. Look, he might string it altogether for the first time, he's obviously showing something at home, but the price is poison.
15. Comfort Zone
- another McManus runner in a handicap. Loves big fields, running third at Galway and Lepopardstown in Listed handicap hurdles, plus won a Flat handicap at Naas in October. In the mix but I'd rank him behind Impose Toi for McManus.
17. Be Aware
- talented and lightly-raced gelding who won on debut, followed by four seconds and a third. Last season he was runner-up in the Novices Championship Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, then stepped into G3 handicaps this season, beaten narrowly in the Greatwood (by Burdett Road who ran second yesterday in a rather eventful Champion Hurdle) and third in the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle at Ascot just before Xmas. His last three runs have been around the two-mile mark, this is a significant step up in distance but it should be an issue on pedigree.
24. Beat The Bat
- has talent but keeps make jumping mistakes. Quite a bit to find but down in the weights on recent runs.
25. Jipcot
- gets huge weight relief off recent runs, and drops back 3f. Likes to be held up and this race is often run at a frantic pace. A big chance.
Impose Toi
Jipcot
Be Aware
Ballyadam
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CROSS-COUNTRY CHASE
Switched over to a handicap this year. Not interested.
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QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
2. Energumene
- going for three in a row in this race but he's now 11 and won't get his favoured soft conditions. Finished 6.5L behind Jonbon in the G1 Clarence House in January, no reason to expect that to be turned around
3. Found A Fifty
- consistent chaser who scoped badly after pulling up in a G1 at Leopardstown at Xmas. That was his first time out of the first two in nine chase runs. Beat Solness the start before, conceding 7lbs to a horse which has won a pair of G1s since.
4. Jonbon
- exceptional jumper who has 17 wins from 20 starts, his only failures being three seconds (all here). Critics say he's not as good at Cheltenham as he is elsewhere - the response to that is, does he need to be?
That nagging doubt won't see him start 1/2, are the others good enough to challenge him? Five of the past eight years have seen an odds-on favourite beaten in this race.
6. Marine Nationale
- going OK this season without winning, placed behind Solness twice and Quilixios in his three starts this campaign. Has only prevailed in one of his five chase starts, the first one before stepping into Graded company. Won the Supreme Novices here two years ago, ridden by the late Michael O'Sullivan. It will be a very emotional scene if he could repeat that performance.
8. Solness
- beaten 25L by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek at Sandown but then went back to Ireland and winning the G1 Chases at the Xmas and Dublin Racing Festivals. This is harder, without another step up in performance, he'd need the market leaders to underperform.
I want to see Jonbon silence the doubters but would also love to see Marine Nationale do it for the O'Sullivan family. Will probably sit this one out, but for the record...
Jonbon
Marine Nationale
Found A Fifty
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GRAND ANNUAL
Don't like the race but some experts I respect have been tipping American Mike and Jazzy Matty.
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CHAMPION BUMPER
Favourite seems too short. Not a race I'm keen on but there's been smart money going around for
Bambino Fever, Kalypso'chance and Gameofinches.
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Bet Summary
The New Lion
Ballyburn if > 1.8
Impose Toi (win) and Jipcot (EW)
Sit out the last three
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