Cheltenham 2025 - Day 1 preview

SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

5. Kopek Des Bordes

⁃ Unbeaten in three, bolted in by 13L in a Group 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival yet still running too keen, oh, and he’s trained by Willie Mullins who has won the opening race of the Festival three times in the past ten years. Yet only two and a half favs (Constitution Hill was a joint fav in 2022, can you believe that?) have won in the past 10 years but all of them were well fancied bar one - the stubborn Labaik at 25/1 in 2017. Of the five races in that past 10 which have had this many runners (12) or fewer, all of the aforementioned favourites have landed and the longest-priced winner was 9/2. Extremely hard to beat but will wear a hood for the first time. The stats on that piece of headgear are terrible so some bookies will be happy to take him on.

6. Romeo Coolio

⁃ Second in the Champion Bumper last year, he got his Maiden Hurdle win out pf the way at Down Royal then started 1/2 in the G2 Royal Bond but could only run second amongst a quintet of Willie Mullins runners. He remedied that with a comfortable win in the G1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle in the heavy fog over Xmas. His poor jump at the last was probably Sam Ewing going too hard for him, an upgrade to Jack Kennedy is a plus. Main rival of the favourite.

7. Salvator Mundi

⁃ A mystery horse we are still struggling to line up. On debut in France two years ago, he ran a close second to Sir Gino who has turned out to be a superstar. He turned up almost a year later and tried to win the Triumph on heavy going. Didn’t jump so well but was set a massive task at only his second run, 11 months after his first on a track completely different to where he’d previously been. He dropped to a maiden hurdle at Tipperary in May and won by a ridiculous 69L against an awful field. His most recent run was a weak-looking G2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle win at Punchestown in January. There’s obviously plenty of promise there but he still has a few flaws in his jumping.

12. Workahead

⁃ Lightly raced 7yo for Henry de Bromhead. Led throughout to win a big field maiden on St Stephen’s Day, would need to step forward again to win this, there’ll be far more pressure.

11. William Munny

⁃ finished 7L behind Workahead on hurdling debut, was then beaten into second by the highly-rated Kawaboomga before picking off a maiden at Punchestown last month by 15L. Also ran third in the Irish Champion Bumper last year, behind The Yellow Clay but ahead of Romeo Coolio and Jasmin de Vaux. Less heralded, might be next in line after the fav.

2. Irancy

⁃ looks a bit brittle with only four runs under his belt as a 7yo. After being bought out of France after two bumper starts in 2021, he made his jumping debut in Ireland in Dec 23, running third to a couple of handy ones in Firefox and Ballyburn, beaten 13L. Then his next start was 11 months later, winning his maiden by a lazy 9L, eased down. Not sure how much chop those behind him will turn out to be, he couldn’t do much more. For those unaware, despite being one of the six trained by Willie Mullins in this race, he would always be ridden by Mark Walsh, retained jockey for the owner. So we don’t really know where he sits in the pecking order, unless you’re in the know at Closutton.

Not much regard for anything else. Fav to get the Festival off to a great start for jollies backers.

Kopek Des Bordes
William Munny
Irancy

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ARKLE

They just don’t beat Majborough. Jango Baie and L’Eau du Sud can fight it out for second.

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ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE

Big field of experienced chasers, not one I can unravel easily.

Henry's Friend
Famous Bridge
Katate Dori

but no real confidence.

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CLOSE BROS MARES HURDLE

9. Lossiemouth

⁃ will be clear fav to win this again, almost certainly odds-on but I’m loathe to pick her after a heavy fall last time in the Irish Champion Hurdle (Feb 2). Before that she ran an unfit Constitution Hill to a couple of lengths at Kempton in the Christmas Hurdle. 3/3 at Cheltenham, twice at the Festival but I’m prepared to risk her at the price. But what with?

4. Jade de Grugy

⁃ Highly talented mare whose only defeat from five starts came here, last year in the other Mares’ race, the Novice Hurdle. Was there an excuse there? It’s no shame to be beaten behind Golden Ace and Brighterdaysahead, even if she started 2/1 second favourite. She didn't have the best of luck that day, squeezed up at a key moment but I doubt she's have won anyway, perhaps pulling back two of the four lengths beaten. She won a G3 on seasonal return without much concern against a weak field, but gave them all weight and recorded her best RPR. That was only three weeks ago so I'd suggest she was given a tune-up run before the festival. The 2m4f suits better than last year's 2m1f. She's in the mix but no value at the price.

6. Joyeuse

- rising star in handicap races for Nicky Henderson but she's been lightly-weighted in those and now steps up to level weights against the best of her sex. Can see her placing but likely to need more experience to win a G1.

7. July Flower

- a recent recruit out of France, she won a G3 race with a bit of depth at the Xmas Racing Festival at Leopardstown, beating rivals here in Kala Conti and Jetara. Solid form at this distance range, great trainer/jockey combo of Henry de Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore - they've won this race twice before.

8. Kala Conti

- only once out of the quinella in eight starts, she continues to improve. Beaten 4L by July Flower last time out, she did carry 5lbs more so there shouldn't be a lot between them at level weights. Just a 5yo, only two of that age have won in the past decade and they were rated 10lbs higher than her now. This is not a weak edition of the race.

Lossiemouth might bolt in to make it two in a row, but this year it's a stronger field, it'll be on proper racing ground (was Heavy last year) and she comes off a heavy fall last time out. I've got to take her on at the price, most likely with a win & place lay.

July Flower
Jade de Grugy
Joyeuse

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CHAMPION HURDLE

This is all about one horse - Constitution Hill. 

- He's ten from ten under Rules (official National Hunt racing, does not include point-to-point racing where he was beaten a head at his only start), with nine of those wins being in Grade 1 company. He won this race by 9L in 2023 and the Supreme Novices' by 22L the year before. He had just one run between April 23 and Boxing Day 24, with some health concerns in the early part of this season including one mediocre track gallop after which the critics wrote him off as goneski. Trainer Nicky Henderson doesn't have a trophy room the size of a golf course by accident, he gave him time, treated him with kid gloves, then gave him a couple of relatively easy kills in the Xmas Hurdle and the International Hurdle a month later to get his fitness up. Lossiemouth pushed him at Kempton, while the latter run was in second gear at best. So he hasn't hit the heights of his previous Festival wins for two years... but he hasn't needed to. The stable are confident he's still the star he was and I'll have to believe that.

Brighterdaysahead

- gets a 7lb concession as a mare and should need every bit of that to be competitive. Has won nine of her 10 starts under Rules, her only defeat was in the G1 Mares' Hurdle here last year behind Golden Ace. She didn't inspire me getting up the hill that day but shook that off to win a Novices G1 at Aintree a few weeks later. This season she has won a G3 at Down Royal, the G1 Morgiana at Punchestown (didn't climb the hill too well but did get going ahead when it levelled out) beating State Man and then won the G1 Nevilles Hotel Hurdle over Xmas by a ridiculous 30L when State Man blew a fuse and the rest were nowhere near good enough. That run rates about average for the last six winners of that race but higher than any figure (after weight allowances) Constitution Hill has run in four races since winning this race in 2023.

Anything else will need binoculars to see them at the finish, unless they go way too early and ruin it for both of them.

I think Constitution Hill retains most of his ability, he just hasn't been fully wound up. Looking forward to a great race.

Constitution Hill
Brighterdaysahead

Golden Ace

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FRED WINTER JUVENILE HURDLE

The junior handicap, I really do like this race, hence a full preview for every runner... One key stat to note thanks to Paul Ferguson and the Weatherby's Festival Guide, Willie Mullins is 0-22 in this race, despite having multiple favourites backed heavily on the day. Might he be due, or might his all be unders once again?

This race is always a tricky one, for 4yos not good enough to compete in the Triumph on Friday, but often they've not been allowed to show all their cards otherwise they'd be handicapped out of contention here. Any sub-standard runs in February have to be taken with a grain of salt - that's when the handicapper will have been looking most closely at them! A sudden resurgence in form won't shock anyone and there have been plenty of big odds winners in recent years. So long as there has been some form along the way, they'll be in the mix.

1. Wendrock

- useful on the Flat he was purchased by Gigginstown in November and showed instant class over hurdles. First up at Navan, he wasn't far behind Total Look and Beyond Your Dreams, who reoppose here, then won a Maiden over Xmas ahead of Galileo Dame who now goes in the G2 Mares' Novices Hurdle or G1 Triumph later in the week. And then in February, surprise surprise, he was thrown in a G1, probably out of his depth, ran on the pace and made a mess of the last jump and then gave up, beaten almost 14L. Tough task with 11st12 but has a bit of class.

2. Murcia

- Willie Mullins-trained filly with a big task ahead of her. Rachael Blackmore rides regularly for owner Kenny Alexander so nothing to be assumed on jockey bookings. Very tough for a filly off top weight but she did get beaten a neck in the leading form guide race over recent years, the Naas 4yo in early Feb. Talented but a lot to do.

3. Sony Bill

-  the other Mullins runner and the choice for stable no.1, Paul Townend. Two runs in Ireland in G1 company since being bought out of France. Beaten seven or eight lengths in each of those runs, and neither time was he Townend's choice, so he doesn't seem to have much stable confidence behind him - but of course, it's all about the right race on the right day. I don't think so here.

4. Stencil

- a JP McManus-owned handicapper, but trained in France. Won two out of three in France and took a peek at Prestbury Park in the Triumph Hurdle Trial in late Jan, beaten 10L behind one of the Triumph favs in East India Dock. Did beat Teriferma and Quantock Hills by 20+ lengths in that race. Put another colours on him, and he's double the race. Capable but poor value.

5. Total Look

- beat Wendrock on hurdles debut and then kept a lid on his rating with a couple of close thirds at Cheltenham and Punchestown. We can certainly make allowances for his last run, he conceded 15lbs to the winner (Slurricane, runs here) on a heavy track. His four worst runs (three Flat, one NH) have all been on heavy ground. Here it'll be good to soft at worst. Trainer Gavin Cromwell loves coming to Cheltenham and this really smells like a long-term plan - but there's one hole in the scheme, he's quite a ropey jumper. Watch the market, I reckon they'll come for him.

6. Puturhandstogether

- another of the McManus assault. Debuted in December with some sloppy jumping, finishing third just behind Turn And Finish. He then beat that horse, staying on nicely at Cork in early December. His next move was to try his hand against older rivals, on a potentially unsuitable heavy track. Deserves to be right in the market.

7. Slurricane

- beat Total Look last time out in deep ground, his first win after four placings to start his hurdling career. I think he probably needs the wet, might have already declared his cards to the handicapper.

8. Robbies Rock

- couldn't win a juvenile maiden hurdle so found a weak handicap to notch his first win over obstacles. Stepped up to a Listed handicap the following start, performing honorably but looks a long way short of the mark here, even with a 3lb claimer.

9. Quantock Hills

- dead-heated for first with Teriferma in the December Triumph Hurdle Trial, but then got belted by 34L when East India Dock and Stencil turned up in January. Six runs over hurdles might have exposed all his cards for handicapping.

10. Teriferma

- very similar form to Quantock Hills, finished just ahead of him in the wide margin Triumph Hurdle Trial. All his previous runs were on firmer ground, perhaps there's some improvement left in him. 

11. Holy See

- interesting maiden with a cautious path to this race. Ran fourth in Limerick Maiden Hurdle on St Stephen's Day at 25/1,  second in a Naas maiden a month later at 2/1, and most recently, fourth (as favourite) in the Naas hurdle in February that has proven the strong formline several time before, after clattering a couple of obstacles. Has been tipped by a couple of sharp Irish judges, so treat him with respect. 

12. Turn And Finish

- started jumping back in September with six hurdle runs to date. Fell in at Catterick last time, winning his maiden at 2/9. Perhaps he needed the run after seven weeks off, but sharp improvement required to be competitive.

13. Liam Swagger

- recorded a decent Flat figure before switching to hurdles in September. Started his NH campaign with consecutive victories before a narrow loss at Newbury a week before Xmas. He then switched to the Flat for a winning tune-up three weeks ago. James Owen and the Gredleys have a strong hand this week, this one has been well supported since the final field was declared.

14. Solar Drive

- limited on the Flat and has been campaigned in weaker races over hurdles until running second in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. Not a regular route to Cheltenham success. Can't see the class he needs to win here.

15. Luker's Tipple

- obvious came with a bit of a reputation he ran second at 9/2 to the highly-rated Sainte Lucie on New Year's Eve but that form didn't hold up when the Mullins filly flopped at the Dublin Racing Festival. Ran second soon after in an open age maiden hurdle before falling when in contention in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle on Feb 1. That's three runs within 33 days, an urgent attempt to get him into this race. Might have some talent but this is a difficult task.

16. Kool One

- finished third behind Holy See on hurdling debut then followed up with a pair of seconds, including one being beaten 11L in a G3 Juvenile Hurdle at Naas, two weeks ago on heavy ground. Would be a shock.

17. Mister Cessna

-  easy to dismiss but after a bit of digging, there's some form worthy of note. He ran second at level weights against Viyanni last time, beaten just 1.25L behind the 2/7 fav. At his previous run, that horse ran third (beaten 6.25L) behind Lulamba who is favourite in the Triumph on Friday. The Fergal O'Brien-trained gelding got lost in the fog in the G2 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow in late December. Had handy French form before that. Big price, there's often one that gets in the frame at huge odds...

18. Beyond Your Dreams

- McManus-owned filly with form tying into several rivals. She beat Slurricane narrowly last time at level weights, ran second to Total Look the time before and beat Robbies Rock on the Flat back in September. All of the connections have won this before but lightweights don't often win this, nor do fillies.

19. Moutarde

- rank outsider of the field. Won a couple of weak races, has been a long way or fallen at his other four starts in Britain. Nope.

20. Static

- was running well in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle last mont before being brought down by Luker's Tipple. Was beaten a neck by Liam Swagger at Wetherby in November and between those runs, he was beaten 18-20L by Nietzsche Has and East India Dock, the top of this generation. Has curiously switched from Olly Murphy to Donald McCain for this. Unlikely but not out of it.

21. Hot Fuss

- finished one place (albeit 8L) ahead of Static behind Nietzsche Has at Chepstow, then had a trot on the Flat at Southwell a fortnight ago, winning comfortably. Got within 4L of East India Dock way back in October but the winner has improved greatly since. Also beat Galactic Charm in December at Sandown, that horse ran well on the weekend. Has been tipped up by a few pundits, he's pretty short now in a tricky race. 

22. Lavender Hill Mob

- was useful on the Flat and started the season well but has been belted his last two runs, started clear fav each time. Nope.

Pick your formline and stick to it. The McManus triumvirate are the front three in the market. 

Puturhandstogether
Holy See
Mister Cessna
Wendrock
Total Look

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NH CHALLENGE CUP

Longest race of the week for the old and slow ones, mostly ridden by claimers.

Transmission
In D'Or
Haiti Couleurs

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Bets for the Day

I've had the mug favs treble of Kopek Des Bordes, Majborough and Constitution Hill.

Keen to lay Lossiemouth win & place.

Will back my Top3 in the Fred Winter, and Transmission in the last.