Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe preview 2024

Ah, the great race of Europe which has a petty grudge against geldings. The rhetoric of why they should be excluded is just nonsense. It's 2024 - has anybody ever backed any of their data theories up with some evidence? One race doesn't make or break a stallion, and there are numerous examples of geldings winning big races abroad without making the breeding industry collapse. For Goliath and Calandagan not be here is disappointing.

Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
€5,000,000
Group 1, 2400m
WFA (no geldings)
Sunday 1620 local time, 1520 BST; Monday 0120 AEDST

1 Zarakem

Very hot and cold this season: beaten over 20L in the Juddmonte at York (probably the highest-rated race this season in Europe) but ran second in the Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot (behind Auguste Rodin). Earlier in the season he ran second last in the Prix Ganay, won by Haya Zark, soon after winning the Prix Harcourt, both at Longchamp. The Royal Ascot run gives him a rating high enough to be competitive here but it is significantly higher than any other run. The Harcourt win gave him a record of six wins from eight, but he seems to have found his level now. He’s 50/1 for a reason, hard to trust and unlikely to repeat or improve on his best performance.

2 Haya Zark

G1 Prix Ganay winner back in April (ahead of Feed The Flame - last year's GP de Paris winner, Al Riffa who races here, Horizon Dore - 3rd in Prince of Wales at Royal Ascot) but beaten in both races since. The third in the Prix d'Ispahan behind Mqse De Sevigne had merit, he was caught wide early on a moderate pace and went to the lead, fighting on well in the straight to be only beaten a length. Then he had three months off and ran third in a G3 behind UK horse Certain Lad, who is nowhere near good enough to compete here. Perhaps it was fitness but he just doesn’t have the touch of class required to win this and priced accordingly. Draw of 13 is no help, but has Buick aboard. Second last in 2023, could easily repeat that.

3 Fantastic Moon

Drew wide in last year’s race and finished 11th, starting at 12/1. He's only had two poor runs in his career, the 2023 Arc and the Prix Ganay in April this year, where we ran dead last behind Haya Zark. Has an outstanding record in Germany, in generally weaker company,but he has won the Deutsches Derby and Grosser Preiss von Baden, the latter ahead of Dubai Honour, who will be known to Australian punters as a dual G1 winner in 2023. Better suited by drawing two this year, will need a bit of luck to close the gap on the best in this field, but this is an Arc, there'll be a lot of bad luck in-running, horses who don't quite handle the going and a few who flop. Jockey won this race on Torquator Tasso in 2021. In with a solid EW chance at odds.

4 Al Riffa

A bit of mixed form on this one, but also stable confidence. I suppose that can happen in years which don't have an out-and-out champion at the head of the market. Won the G1 National Stakes at the Curragh as a 2yo, got whipped by Mashhoor (who? Hasn't won since in six starts) resuming in July 23 then ran last year's Arc winner Ace Impact to 3/4L in the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville six weeks later. This season, his first two runs were nothing special, then he was beaten a length by City Of Troy in the G1 Eclipse, before thrashing his rivals in the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, a race where I'd heard of few of his rivals - but he beat the runner-up Narrativo by 5L, a similar distance that Fantastic Moon beat him by, in the GP von Baden. He's a third of the price of Fantastic Moon though - with a new jockey, the Japanese veteran, Yutaka Take, who takes the ride since a wealthy Japanese owner has bought into him. Could be competitive, I just can't see it.

5 Sevenna's Knight

Needs the taps turned on to be any chance. Should have gone to Melbourne for the Cup, but without rain, that'd make his task much harder, even over his preferred two miles. At his last venture over 2400m, he finished 14L behind Dubai Honour, who would be 25/1 at least here, after being beaten by Fantastic Moon last time. Congratulations to OTI Racing for having a runner, but unless it buckets down for days, he's going to be right out the back.

6 Continuous

Fifth last year, beaten only 3.5L, but only three runs since. Finished midfield in the G2 Hardwicke at Royal Ascot when 13/8 fav, beat a weak G3 field six weeks ago at the Curragh, then could only finish third in a field of five behind handy French gelding, Iresine, in the G2 Prix Foy. Fitter here but can't see him being in the mix.

7 Bluestocking

Supplemented this week for a hefty chunk of change, she's only had one 'poor' run this season, when running 8.25L fourth to City Of Troy in the Juddmonte. Outside of that, she's claimed the G2 Middleton at York, G1 Pretty Polly at the Curragh, and most recently the G1 Prix Vermeille here three weeks ago, plus ran second to Goliath in the King George VI and QE Stakes at Ascot in late July. High class, gets a 4yo filly's weight allowance and still has room to improve. Drawn ideally in three, why not? She was challenged all the way up the straight in the Vermeille (did have a charmed trip before that though), she's tough.

8 Mqse De Sevigne

High-class French mare who has always seemed to be a doubt over this distance, keeping her previous 17 starts to shorter trips. She has won six of her past seven starts, losing only to Inspiral in the G1 Sun Chariot on a good to firm track at Newmarket. All of her French wins have had give in the ground, which she'll no doubt find here. Her most recent win in the Prix Jean Romanet over 2000m was only narrow, but she only ever does just enough - those six wins are by no more than a combined two lengths. Eagle-eyed form students will notice in winning that race in 2023, she defeated a filly called Via Sistina, who is potentially the best horse in Australia at the moment! Can she run the distance? It will be much harder to do in a full field with the pace on, rather than her typical 5-8 runner races. A chance if she runs it out, but the extreme outside draw makes it significantly harder.

9 Look De Vega

Favoured for the race until his unbeaten record was broken in the Prix Niel here three weeks ago. He had 14wks off after winning the Prix du Jockey Club in early June, perhaps this was seen as just a tune-up run, although one would think maintaining an unbeaten record would be highly valuable for a prospective sire. The Niel was run on a soft-rated track, the firmest going he’d encountered in four starts, and also with the French Derby over a shorter trip these days, it was his first crack at 2400m. The stable has said they needed to get a run into him to get him fit and his work this week has allegedly been outstanding. When he won the Derby, he had the perfect run and kicked away at the 300m mark. Might not be as simple from gate eight, but that turn of foot goes a long way in big races. Leading chance if you believe the stable mail.

10 Shin Emperor

Japanese-trained full brother to 2020 Arc winner Sotsass who made his European debut in the Irish Champion Stakes, running a fast-finishing third, just a length behind Economics and Auguste Rodin. You could easily make a case that he might have won the race with a clearer path. Economics could be the best horse in Europe not named City Of Troy, but didn’t want to step out to 2400m. Shin Emperor ran against the best in his age group in Japan, finishing third in the Japanese Derby and second in the G1 Hopeful Stakes at the end of his 2yo season. He's a high-class colt who still start ridiculously short on the World Pool totes due to the weight of money from Asia, but be underestimated with bookmakers. Great chance.

11 Sunway

French-bred colt, trained in England by a French trainer, and a full brother to Sealiway, who won the British Champion Stakes in 2021. He'll be a big price but does have some form to support his case. While he hasn't won this season, he won the G1 Criterium International last October, ran third in the G3 Prix Greffulhe in May (behind Wootton Verni who has just landed in Australia for Chris Waller), ran second in the Irish Derby behind Los Angeles, fourth in the King George VI and QE Stakes behind Goliath and most recently third in the (English) St Leger behind the undefeated Jan Brueghel. His weakest run was probably his seventh in the Prix Du Jockey Club when he settled back in the field and ran on late, 4.5L behind the winner, 2.25L behind third-placed Sosie. Nice horse, would love to own him but I think they aim a touch too high. Pull him back a rung and he'd be cleaning up G2 and G3 races, even some weaker Group 1s. Drawn 15, he's only going back from there and just doesn't have the acceleration to run past this quality of field. 

12 Delius

Coolmore-owned colt who only debuted in April. After winning his first three starts, he has been in the frame in the big local races but not threatening to win. He was behind Sosie and Illinois in the GP de Paris (beaten 2.25L), then second again (beaten to 1.5L) to Sosie, but ahead of the ‘80% fit’ Look De Vega, in the Prix Niel. Has improved his RPR at every start and a further step up would put him right in the mix. Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget is seeking his third Arc in five years. Drawn well, one of many chances.

14 Los Angeles

Given too much to do in the Irish Champion Stakes when he sat back and couldn't catch Economics or Auguste Rodin, while Shin Emperor found a late gap and squeezed past him. Won the Great Voltigeur and the Irish Derby in previous two starts, after a third in the Derby behind City Of Troy. That's a high level of consistent form which puts him right in the mix. He does have a habit of sweating up pre-race and sometimes becoming fractious which is not ideal on France's biggest race day. Barrier ten is a little wide but he generally races forward (other in than the Irish Champion) and Ryan Moore is as good as it gets.

15 Survie

Rank outsider of the field who ran second at big odds in the Prix de Diane (French Oaks) in June but has seemingly regressed since, according to RPRs.  Won the G2 Prix de Malleret then was beaten almost 10L in the Prix Vermeille. Like a jockey in the diving pool, she's way out of her depth.

16 Aventure

Local filly who finished behind Survie in the Prix de Diane (only beaten one length), but has kept improving since, winning the G2 Prix de Pomone at Deauville, followed by a tough second behind Bluestocking in the Prix Vermeille (and ahead of the over-rated Emily Upjohn, Opera Singer, and Diane quinella Sparkling Plenty and Survie) . Before the Diane, she won the G3 Prix du Royaumont arrogantly (replay below). Drawn for the perfect run and by the mighty Sea The Stars, she's going the right way and with Stephane Pasquier aboard (won this race on Rail Link in 2006), she isn't her for a day out. Four 3yo fillies have won in the past twenty years, but they were all superstars (Enable, Treve, Danedream and Zarkava) - although we didn't know how good Danedream really was until the year after. Appealing at 20/1. 

THE RACE

There are many horses who like to be near the pace here but no obvious leader. Perhaps it will be Haya Zark or Los Angeles. A swathe of horses could park directly behind them on a moderate pace, and anyone drawing wide will need a lot of luck, which often happens at Longchamp.

I think the 3yos have it between them, only Bluestocking of the older brigade looks a genuine threat. The pair at the top of my list are Aventure and Shin Emperor. The filly is steadily improving while the Japanese visitor is tough and didn't have the best of luck last time. Any of the leading colts - Look De Vega, Delius, Sosie or Los Angeles - could be just behind them. Each has decent acceleration with some upside in their performance. And the token older horse representation of Bluestocking and Fantastic Moon just behind them.

Backing the top two, use the others for exotics.

AVENTURE 20/1

SHIN EMPEROR 15/2

LOOK DE VEGA

LOS ANGELES

SOSIE

DELIUS

BLUESTOCKING

FANTASTIC MOON