Royal Ascot Day 2 - Queen's Vase

A much lighter schedule of previews as got back very late from the track last night. Brief summary of other races coming later.

QUEEN'S VASE
Group 2, 1m6f, for 3yo
£265,000
1505 local, 0005 Thurs AEST

1.Birdman

Lightly-raced gelding in the hands of Jessica Harrington, winning both starts to date. First time out he beat the well-regarded Highbury (both on debut) in a Cork maiden, then went to a Listed race at Navan and won just as comfortably. He’d probably have gone to a Derby if he hadn’t been snipped already. Genuine contender here.

3.Highbury

Finished behind Birdman on debut at Cork, then went to Leopardstown and trounced the runner-up, Himalayan Heights, from the start before (5L further than Birdman beat him on debut). On RPRs, that win matches Birdman’s second race. Stable no.2 on jockey bookings but all in new territory so don’t be surprised if progress isn’t linear across the stable string.

4.Illinois

Galileo half-brother to Arc winner Danedream. After winning on debut, he has frustrated punters by being beaten as favourite all three times. That form's not so bad though, beaten by Los Angeles in a G1, Dallas Star (50/1 shot) on a heavy track in the G3 Ballysax and then second, beaten 4.5L by Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Derby Trial. The latter form was boosted by the excellent run of the winner next time out in the Derby, and this time he might benefit from having a stablemate set the pace. But if you are favourite in a Group 2, then you should be converting better than one from four. Might win, but one to take on for mine.

5.Imperial Sovereign

Disappointed in his first start on turf after two good runs on the AW. Got stuck on the pace and tired early, perhaps getting some cover might benefit him. Jockey Clifford Lee is ice cold at the moment, no winners from his last 36 rides.

6.Lavender Hill Mob

Won a Class 5 handicap in heavy going at Goodwood last month then got left behind when he stepped up into better company in the Cocked Hat Stakes at the same venue. He didn't have the best of luck that day, there could be more to come. Jockey Callum Shepherd is out of form, just one winner in the past fortnight, from 32 rides.

7.Meydaan

Won the Cocked Hat at Goodwood getting a relatively charmed run through the field after finishing a distant third in the Lingfield Derby Trial, just over three lengths behind second-placed Illinois. Rise in distance might help but think there are a few ahead of him.

8.Mina Rashid

Won a restricted Chester maiden in May beating a reasonable Coolmore marker after two starts as a 2yo; a poor run at Kempton after a decent debut at Nottingham in October, both over significantly shorter trips. That Chester win showed a lot of fight, he was left flaf-footed at the 3f mark then worked home nicely to catch the leaders who had kicked away. Not out of this.

9.Mr Hampstead

Tailed off in the Derby, beaten by other rivals in previous races. Nope.

10.Pappano

Thrashed in last two starts against this sort of company.

11.Sea The Green

Went for an easy kill at Catterick to win his maiden, against open age but getting a huge weight advantage. Figures are way short of the required mark here.

12.The Equator

Missed the start and could only work home late behind handy stablemate in the G3 Gallinule, previously in his maiden he was on the pace and kicked away nicely (beating Himalyan Heights who is the benchmark for Birdman and Highbury). If he gets out of the gates on time, he could be in the finish.

SUMMARY

I like Birdman here but he has shortened noticeably overnight so the value is nearly gone. Illinois will be around the mark and Mina Rashid might one of those types who just keeps on going, just not quite fast enough to win it.

BIRDMAN, Illinois, Mina Rashid, The Equator

Day 2 - first half previews

Day 2 previews - latter half

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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