Royal Ascot Day 2 - latter half summaries

ROYAL HUNT CUP

Bloody impossible, read 20 previews and you're likely to get 20 different selections.

Beshtani went very close at Epsom in a big handicap, denying Hamad Al-Jehani his first British winner with a horse bought out of France where he'd won three of his five 3yo starts (second in the others). His stable is firing at the moment, just missing with Haunted Dream yesterday. This is one of the hardest races of the year to win but fitness and ability won't be the factors that stop him. Sonny Liston went very close in this race last year, he's up 11lbs since then but performances have justified that. And if that horse is expected to be in the finish, then we can't overlook Talis Evolvere. He has finished third behind Metal Merchant and Sonny Liston in successive handicaps at Newbury this campaign. In the latter one, he received 5lb from Sonny Liston, beten 3.25L. This time that gap is 16lb, a combination of the winner going up and switching from Ryan Moore to apprentiec Joe Leavy claiming 5lbs. One at odds. Wild Tiger is very progressive, 3/3 in Britain and Oisin Murphy is off to a good start this week.

BESHTANI, Sonny Liston, Talis Evolvere, Wild Tiger. Back a few and good luck!

-------

KENSINGTON PALACE

Honestly not a clue here. So many have spicks and specks of decent form, which bit will they turn up with today?

Fakhama is very well-bred and showed much promise last year. Big price although drifting which suggests the stable aren't that confident. Vetiver ran fifth in the Balmoral on Champions Day last year. Not so good in two runs this season but they've bumped Porbert off for Oisin Murphy which is a big upgrade on current form. Doha is by two of the greatest horses in history, Sea The Stars and Treve, and bolted in by 9L in her only big field appearance (14-runner maiden). Beaten at odds-on last time in a small field, this looks more to her liking and she can take advantage of this nice handicap mark. Summer Of Love has progressed nicely on the all-weather to then be produced in a big turf race. Godolphin have done that before...

FAKHAMA, Doha, Vetiver, Summer of Love

============

WINDSOR CASTLE

Aviation Time should have won the Hilary Needler, had no luck in key stages and the 125/1 winner took the run she could have had. Motored home late, something like this could be right up her street. Treasure Isle hit a dry track on his second start and fought on well to win a Naas maiden. Pont Neuf beat the promising Kassaya (runs in the Queen Mary) last time at Salisbury, this is the level that Eve Johnson Houghton targets with her budget buys, she doesn't get the £500k yearlings required for the Coventry. She's won this race before.

AVIATION TIME, Treasure Isle, Pont Neuf, Vingegaard

Day 2 previews - part 1

Queen's Vase preview

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog