Skip to main content

York Dante Meeting - Thursday preview

YORK Thursday


Well Day 1 was a rather trying day. Track of Time ran stone motherless last, Hispanic tragically broke a leg and has gone to the big horse paddock in the sky, Showalong drifted heavily and tired out accordingly, Classical Song looked fat in the parade ring and could only finish third behind a couple of longshots, then Ziggy's Condor looked home for all money to save the day... and then got nutted on the line at 10/1. So close, yet so far... 

As Yazz used to sing, the only way is up...

1415 Lindum York Handicap

JM Jungle won a decent race in Bahrain in February but was disqualified for some reason (nothing in the stewards report!) so we're guessing whether it was for interference, a drug infraction or the jockey weighed in light. Last time out, he ran a decent fourth at Musselburgh after 60 days off so he'll be fitter for this. Generally runs well here, slight doubt on the form of jockey Jason Hart, winning only twice from his last 52 rides. He's much better than that!

Copper Knight is a pensioner these days but showed some form last week at Chester and will give them something to chase. Has won here numerous times. 

Looking For Lynda has won here in the past and should be rock hard fit after three run already this season.

JM JUNGLE, Copper Knight, Looking For Lynda

==================

1445 Hambleton Handicap

Point Lynas has had a long break of 250 days since his last run, but to emphasise the class of this horse, that was in a Group 3 at Haydock. He is such an honest galloper but he doesn't get his head in front often enough - his Flat record is two wins and seven seconds from 20 starts, with a C&D record of 2-2-2 from his last three visits here - by a head, a head and lost via a stewards' enquiry. 

Dutch Decoy is another honest handicapper deserving a win. The Owners Group galloper has gone close in so many Class 2 handicaps over the past year, with his two failures amongst nine runs within 3.25L of the winner easily attributed to soft going. Will be right in the finish again. 

Symbol of Light and Master Richard are both chances at odds but have to deal with awkward draws.

POINT LYNAS, Dutch Decoy, Symbol of Light, Master Richard

==================

1515 Middleton Fillies' Stakes

Free Wind registered her only win of last season first up in this race but she spent the rest of the year racing in stronger company, highlighted by a trip to Paris to run in the Arc (well beaten in 13th). Also ran in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks in August, beaten a head by Warm Heart (future winner of the Prix Vermeille and Pegasus World Cup Turf) when held up for a run. Oldest in the field but lightly raced for a 6yo and deserves to be favourite.

Sapphire Seas won four in a row last season and was only beaten by a stablemate in a G2 at Meydan in February. The Charlie Appleby yard is firing again this season, she's right in the mix.

Infinite Cosmos has just the four starts in her locker so far, will get better with time and it would be no surprise if she goes close here.

FREE WIND, Sapphire Seas. Infinite Cosmos.

================

1545 Dante Stakes

The form around Al Musmak from the G2 Royal Lodge back in September has been solidly franked with Ghostwriter (winner, fourth in the 2000 Guineas), Capulet (third, won Dee Stakes at Chester last week), Macduff (fourth, 2nd in G3 Classic Trial at Sandown) as solid formlines. He's had seven months off so fitness is a concern but with the Derby so close, surely he's tuned up for this.

Ancient Wisdom is very hard to oppose. He won four of his five races as a 2yo, now he resumes after 201 days off. Worth noting in his one defeat at Ascot last July, he did finish behind Al Musmak. He was spelled after that then came back later in the season to win the G3 Autumn Stakes and the G1 Futurity in October on wet tracks.

Caviar Heights took three runs to win his maiden last season then came last in a G2 but has turned a corner in 2024. He ran third on seasonal debut in the Feilden Stks at 50/1, followed by a win over this trip in the Listed Newmarket Stakes. There seems to be more to come, and by Sea The Stars, he's a sneaky Derby chance.

AL MUSMAK, Ancient Wisdom, Caviar Heights

=================

1615 Westow Stakes

Big Evs won the Juvenil Turf Sprint at the Breeders Cup last season and is a class above these. A 5lb penalty against this opposition shouldn't be any trouble, hence the odds-on price. He'll have much bigger targets this season. 

Kylian had a boom on him last season and started only 5/2 last time, when behind Big Evs in the G2 Flying Childers. Has plenty of talent but his dam also peaked early in her 2yo season and then trained off. That could be important or simply small sample noise. Would need to have improved on last season to beat the favourite, but a stable switch to Archie Watson may help.

Sommelier has been flying on the AW recording some strong figures but failed last time in the 3yo AW Championships race after 88 days off. The in-form Oisin Murphy steps aboard and back to his best efforts here, he can compete for place money.

BIG EVS, Sommelier, Kylian




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...