Skip to main content

Cheltenham Day 3 - part II

Finishing off the card for Thursday...

================

MAGNERS PLATE

Marvel de Cerisy is a lightly-raced chaser trained by Henry de Bromhead who obviously has a high opinion of him, judging by his SPs each start. He never got going last time but looked like he had plenty up his sleeve winning at Punchestown the time before. Just looks the type to take a massive step up on the big stage.

War Lord found the pace too tough last season in the Grade 1s so has dropped down to a nice mark for handicapping. He gave the winner 22lb last time at Wetherby, beaten 5.5L, and that winner, Gemirande, then went on to just get nosed out in the Greatwood. Right in this at a nice price.

Midnight River won nicely here on New Year's Day (new course) but is right up in the weights now.  Mars Harper has been running well without winning in decent handicaps in Ireland, you could just imagine Gordon Elliott applying those final touches to tune him up a bit better and be right in this.

A plethora of chances in a tough race. Anything owned by McManus is flying this week so beware of So Scottish but I'd rather look for a price.

WAR LORD (ew 22/1), Mars Harper (ew 33/1), Marvel de Cerisy, Midnight River, Seddon

================

JACK DE BROMHEAD MARES' NOVICE

At first glance this should be a cakewalk for Luccia then you see that Nicky Henderson keeps missing the target in this race, including with Epatante who had very similar form to today's fav. And the favourites have to stop winning sometime.

Lot Of Joy has nice form on the Flat and over hurdles. Purchased out of Sweden, she went close in a couple of big Irish Flat handicaps during the summer, finishing just behind the high-class Echoes In Rain on both occasions, then ran close seconds in two maiden hurdles in big fields. Dropping back to mares' class, she bolted in at Fairyhouse with minimal effort, giving a taste of what's to come. She has a great shot here, a great EW bet as there's always that risk the fav might just be exceptional.

Jetara should give us a run at decent each-way odds, she's not missed a place in five runs this season and has form through some decent ones. She finished ahead of Halka Du Tabert last time but is double the price...

Youwearitwell is in great form but drops back three furlongs when she seemed to improve for the step up in trip. Or perhaps she just got better anyway.

LOT OF JOY (bet 6/1 ew), Jetara, Youwearitwell

================

KIM MUIR

Not a fan of this race for the amateurs, will be finishing off the form for Friday.


Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...
14 comments
Read more