Melbourne Cup preview

Melbourne Cup preview - bet summary

The 2021 Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1 handicap, 3200m
AU$7,750,000
Tuesday Nov 2, 1500 local time, 0400 GMT
Weather forecast - Fine, 30C
Expected going - Good 3/4

Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise (credit Brett Scala/Racing Photos)

For the runner-by-runner preview, please click here. (Note - edits have been made since that article was first posted)

There might be quite a solid pace here. I've got five potential leaders and another five racing prominently, and that's without the potential wildcard of Sir Lucan. He's dropped back in virtually all his races apart from his Yeats Stks win in May (2600m), and we know that Gai Waterhouse loves to see her horses up on the pace, especially when they've got a weight advantage on most of the field.

Yet if we switch back to Caulfield, we see what happened to Delphi when he tried to run Incentivise off his feet. If they take him on, their own chances suffer and there's no guarantee Incentivise suffers at all. That is, unless Delphi suffered more due to the wet than the pace.

This might just be a moot point. Incentivise is the new star in town and since he worked out how to race, he's won his last NINE starts. The Caulfield Cup wasn't the strongest in history but neither is this. He might be the shortest-priced favourite since Phar Lap in 1930. I think he just beats them and the debate is all about the minors. I'd rather go chasing 5 or 10/1 the place, plus the trifectas, than a 6/4 'moral' in the biggest two-mile handicap in the world.

Behind the favourite, it's quite difficult to split the next bunch. They are all expected to go forward. Delphi cops the rail and might drop just behind. Grand Promenade has to cross from gate 21 and might have to go all the way to the front. Persan, Tralee Rose and Floating Artist have drawn the middle and should be able to push forward and wait for any wider runners to cross, so they could be 2-4 pairs back. Sir Lucan is the wildcard.

There are two I'm keen on each-way at around 25/1. Persan just knows how to peak on the right day. Fifth last year, third in the Caulfield Cup - he's a solid place chance at least. There's a blueprint behind Sir Lucan that might just pull a shock. It's hard to take anything Gai Waterhouse says at face value, she's always extremely positive about her runners, but the pattern combined with a lightweight and three-time winning jockey Glen Boss is most attractive.

Opposing Spanish Mission in particular, Andrew Balding has brought a few out to Australia in the past without success (apart from Side Glance in a shocking Mackinnon), and leaving Twilight Payment and Verry Elleegant out of my exotics.

RANKED ORDER

Incentivise

Persan

Sir Lucan

Grand Promenade

Delphi

Tralee Rose

Floating Artist

The Chosen One

Ocean Billy

Selino

Great House

Verry Elleegant

Twilight Payment

BETS

Persan EW 25/1 (take UK 4 places if possible) - or w/o Incentivise 18/1 Betfair

Sir Lucan EW 25/1 (take UK 4 places if possible) - or w/o Incentivise 16/1 Betfair

Trifectas

Incentivise stand-out

2 x 7,12,16,21,22,24 x 6,7,8,9,12,16,21,22,24 100% for $48

Hail Mary if Incentivise fails

12,16,24 x 7,12,16,21,22,24 x 2,6,7,8,9,12,16,21,22,24 10% for $12

May the punting gods be with you and all the runners come back unscathed.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog