Royal Ascot Day Four summary preview

Our situation overnight is summed up by this classic tune - will it come tonight?

Friday could be a day for confident punting, but let's see how much water falls from the sky first. If it's anything like this evening on the south coast, I'd be surprised if we didn't move to good to soft, with rain scheduled right through to the start of racing. So the first few races are previewed, and I'll hold off on the rest until I get a clearer idea of what to study for.

Results Day 3 - Getting closer to the mark after three days! Eshaada and Sir Lamorak running second was frustrating, but action at ColossusBets was the saviour - took my stake back on my Place 6 syndicate after four legs which proved wise after we bombed out on the Britannia, while I had a small share of one of the very few successful tickets, paying £2774 (40p of £6935), well played "fiveoutsix", in what might have been his/her first syndicate!

1430 - Albany Stakes

I was keen on Eve Lodge in the Queen Mary so I'm not going to let her go here. Connections seem to prefer the 6f option and once again she looks to be drawn near the speed, likely to come from Prettiest and Oscula (although working with very small samples of racing patterns in early 2yos!), and near to the stands rail. Flotus was very impressive winning on debut at Goodwood while Elliptic beat Queen Mary winner Quick Suzy on debut, but only repeated that figure rather than progressing last time. Hoping she can kick on at a better price.

Eve Lodge, Flotus, Elliptic

1505 - King Edward VII Stakes

The progressive Tasman Bay bypassed a run in the Derby for this easier contest. He tried to make all the running in the Fairway at Newmarket but ran into John Leeper who has a big future. Stepping up to the mile and a half should suit, if he wasn't trained by a NZ Olympian instead of the big gun stables, his price would be substantially shorter. Yibir's best runs to date have been on firmer tracks, expect betting to swing wildly depending on the weather. The form behind Alenquer at Sandown has been franked with Adayar winning the Derby. On face value, that is very strong form but he was 25/1 that day and he's more like 2/1 here. No value for me.

Tasman Bay, Yibir (if track no worse than good/soft), Alenquer, Title

1540 - Commonwealth Cup

read full preview here

1620 - Coronation Stakes

This is one race which could be blown apart by substantial rain. Primo Bacio looked a star at York, making a handy field of fillies look mediocre in a Listed race with a tremendous turn of foot, following on from a desperately unlucky fourth in the Fred Darling. Trainer Ed Walker is concerned about softening ground and looking at her sire Awtaad's stats in the wet, that's understandable - just two wins from 30 starters in soft or heavy going vs 11/62 on good through to firm. Since stepping up to a mile, Mother Earth has run third in the G1 Fillies' Mile, second in the BC Juv Fillies Turf, won the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket then ran second in the French equivalent. That's not quite Poetic Flare's level but it sets a very high standard. Shale and Pretty Gorgeous tie into some of that form, and the former seems over-priced at 20/1 although results favour the latter only soft ground. Among others, watch out for the undefeated Potapova who has won both races by big margins and German visitor Novemba who destroyed the field in the German 1000 Guineas, leading and then bolting away in the straight to win by 7.5L.

Mother Earth, Novemba, Potapova, Pretty Gorgeous assuming the going reaches Soft.

1700 - Sandringham Stakes

10/1 the field should give you an idea of what to expect here. This is one I don't expect to get close to deciphering on a stable day of weather, let alone this week!

Back for these in the morning!

1735 - Duke of Edinburgh Stakes

1810 - Palace of Hoylroodhouse Stakes

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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