The Newmarket Handicap is the premier handicap sprint on the Australian thoroughbred calendar and it has thrown up a tantalising contest. Multiple Group 1 winners, a couple of flying fillies carrying featherweights and some pretty handy handicappers in the middle. A fascinating race, and just one of the highlights on a great Super Saturday card.
Looking for three wins in a row is Darryl Frenc, @winningpunter1. You can find more of his work at winningpunter.org.
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Lexus Newmarket Handicap
AU$1.25m, Group 1, 1200m
Flemington, Saturday 1515 local, 0415 GMT
Speed Map
A lot of the time, races run down the straight tend to be run
at a slower pace, this allows horses to travel within their comfort zone and
sprint better. This is in my opinion why we see horses who seem to excel down
the straight. It’s not that they love not running around the bend although I
would say that plays a part but mainly because we see less genuinely run races.
On raw times Redzel was only a length above benchmark for the first 600m in the
Lightning Stakes. Horses that tend to be advantaged down the straight are the
ones with the best sprints because down the straight more often than around the
bend they actually get the chance to use their sprints.
Where does that leave us here? Thronum and Lord Of The Sky
will go forward with Booker not far away. I think we will see just a slightly
above benchmark pace. Thronum will try and do what Redkirk Warrior did last
year and go forward and steal the race. There’s likely to be only a few lengths
separating first and last every horse will get a chance.
My Market
It’s an extremely open race. I have Merchant Navy and Rich
Charm on top. Redkirk Warrior next due to his tendency to regress deeper
into his prep.
The Runners
Redkirk Warrior - Best horse in the race and current
Newmarket winner trying to go back to back. This is now his fourth prep in
Australia. In his first prep, we saw him marginally improve on his first-up run
when second up. In his two preps since he has won first up and not gone near
that rating again the rest of the prep. 1000m first up and ran to a new PB
running slashing sectionals to run down Redzel, best late splits of the day. If
he ran those figures again he’d be winning. His pattern though is to regress
off his first-up runs. That’s why I will just be backing him to save my bet or
for a small win depending on his price.
Brave Smash - Big result for us in the Futurity. I just
don’t understand why they want to drop back to a 1200m handicap. Obviously,
they want a 1200m G1 on his resume but winning this race will be a big ask. Has
shown that he can compete with the best in Australia over 1200m and he has a
huge sprint. Weights in racing are over-rated but the Newmarket has a tendency
to be won by horses down the order. He’ll run well but I think he’ll find a
couple better.
Lord Of The Sky - Solid enough first up with favours on his
side and flattered by the slow tempo in the C.F Orr. Has no run of substance
this prep and I will be against it.
Rich Charm - What a story it would be if Udyta Clarke got a
Group 1 win. She’s got the horse to do it in my opinion. Drawing inside broke
its chances of winning first up. Would’ve won had he gotten to the outside.
Strongest through the line of all runners. Had a better late race exertion than
Merchant Navy just couldn’t travel mid-race. Back to the Flemington straight
suits. He hasn’t been missed by the market and hopefully, we can get a better
price come race start.
Rock Magic - He’ll be in the first half of the field
crossing the post he just lacks the finish to win down the straight.
Supido - Drawn well. He isn’t a Group 1 WFA sprinter but he
can mix it with them in a handicap. Ran well last start with the second best
mid and late race exertion but just wasn’t good enough to beat Redzel and
Redkirk Warrior home. Gets a big drop in weight. The thing that sets him apart
is that his peak rating is at 1200m when running third to Black Heart Bart in
the Goodwood. This will be his first run at 1200m since then. He’s a good price
and has a bit of X-factor about him. No weight and drawn similar to last start.
Keen to make him a big winning result.
Thronum - Has run to a new peak at each start this prep.
Zahra to Dee is a big negative jockey change. Will need a great ride to lead
this field and win and don’t think Dee is the jockey for that. Probably a bit
one-paced to win. Will need to run to a big new peak to win.
Fastnet Tempest - Trialed well but is looking for further.
Ken’s Dream - Horse is airborne. Raced the same day as the
Lighting against Benchmarks he was home best late race exertion of the day. He
had the third best last 800m of the day, the best last 600 and last 400 of the
day and second best last 200 of the day. The best last 200 of the day was
Redkirk Warrior but Ken’s Dream had him covered for the last 600 and 400m. It
was a huge effort and you have to keep in mind that Ken’s Dream was over 1200m
compared to Redkirk Warrior who was only over 1000m. He drops to 52kg off that effort, he loves the straight.
Drawn 8 he can sit right behind Thronum. Great chance at huge odds.
Lucky Liberty - Came out of the same race as Ken’s Dream and
ran similar figures. Lucky Liberty travelled two lengths slower than Ken’s Dream to
the 200m and going into a Group 1 he needs to be closer in the run. One at
bolters odds for fourth.
Merchant Navy - Could be a star. He hasn’t run in too many
races with solid early pace and overall time. He had been relying on his big
sprint. He got found out in the Golden Rose. We backed him in the Coolmore at
big odds with blinkers on the first time and he unleashed a big sprint down the
straight. He didn’t have the SP on his side and he made his run in the fast
lane. A lot of that win was due to Mark Zahra. He jumped from barrier 15 of 20
yet Zahra got to the other side of the track looking for his fast lane and won
on the fence. He was solid first up. Best last 600m and second best last
200m against the benchmark of the entire day. He didn’t get the best run in
transit but he did get a better run than Rich Charm. Zahra to Schofield a negative in my opinion.
He could be a star but there are enough negatives in his short quote for me to
take him on.
Missrock - Horrible second up record. Has had her chances
and not been good enough. Could run a place with even luck but couldn’t take
her to win.
So Si Bon - Stable change. Trial wasn’t great. If he comes
out first up for the new stable and wins good on him and I’ll cop it on the
chin but I can’t back him.
Booker - Big run first up and then big run again in The
Oakleigh. I’ll be waiting for her to get to 1400m before backing her. I think
there is a win against the older mares in her this prep. This is a bridge too
far over 1200m.
Catchy - Would need significant improvement to beat this lot
down the straight. Better suited third and fourth up out to 1400-1600m
Betting Suggestions
I’ll be taking a few in this. We will be in profit to
varying degrees if any runner should win.
Redkirk Warrior - 0.5 Units
Rich Charm - 0.6 Units
Supido - 0.4 Units
Ken’s Dream - 0.3 Units
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