Longines Hong Hong Kong preview

The traditional end-of-year finale in Hong Kong with Hong Kong International Raceday, featuring some of the best of the world's bloodstock. Studying hard for the previews has been Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke.

---------------------------

Longines Hong Kong Cup

Group 1, 2000m
Sha Tin 1630 Local Time, 1930 AEST 0830 BST
(ODDS LISTED ARE BEST AVAILABLE)

1 Deauville (12/1): Ran a shocker at Woodbine in the Mile there, unseen since. Ran third in the Queen Anne in June and also in the Tattersall’s Gold Cup and Arlington Million. Did beat Poet’s Word at Chester in May however the other horse has arguably improved past this one.

2 Neorealism (5/1): Down the field in Autumn Tenno Sho last time, one of those that despised the soft ground. Won C&D G1 QEII Cup in April under a “magic” ride from Joao Moreira. Trying to complete a unique double, jockey unbeaten on him.

3 Poet’s Word (8/1): Second in both the Championship races in Ireland and the UK, the latter behind one of the best horses in the world. Andrea Atzeni leaves Japan for the weekend for one ride. Sir Michael Stoute a freak. 8/1, thank you.

4 Werther (2/1): One of the top horses in the country over the last couple of years, always just does enough when he wins, bar his demolition job in the QEII in 2016. Very good trial win, best of the locals.

5 Staphanos (12/1): One of the many that despised the conditions in the 2000m Tenno Sho. Yet to win at G1 level, loves Hong Kong though, is a six year old now but.

6 Secret Weapon (40/1): Won the trial last year and then a great second to Maurice in this race. Not in the same form this campaign however, if running to the form he did 12 months ago a chance without doubt.

7 Robin Of Navan (40/1): UK-prepared but effectively does all his racing in France. G1 Prix d’Ispahan runner-up but always seems to find a couple a bit too good for him and as is consistent as he is he is a bit of a non-winner. G3 second last time, outside the winner, Monarchs Glen, that was a strong race. A lot more required to get into the finish here.

8 Garlingari (33/1): Corine Barande-Barbe brought Cirrus Des Aigles to this meeting six years in a row. As soon as he retires she brings this one! Has improved out of sight, since the retirement of Cirrus Des Aigles, winning multiple group races in France.

9 Time Warp (8/1): Continues to improve but was run down by a better horse in the trial after having the run of the race, doubt he can reverse form.

10 War Decree (33/1): Failed to handle the dirt in the Classic last time at Del Mar. Whilst he was never going to get near them he was a bit unlucky running up the backside of good old Arrogate for the first half of the event. Been a bit of a disappointing horse. G3 winner at Dundalk before America.

11 Blond Me (25/1): Been a very good horse for connections this year winning the G2 Middleton at York followed by a second to Winter in the G1 Nassau. Completely forget the G1 Prix Vermeille as she was caught up in horrible interference, caused by the winner, and was then pulled up. Got a deserved G1 win in the E.P. Taylor in Canada. Against the boys this time a question mark but I’m sure she will go great on her final start before the breeding barn. However she needs the sting out of the ground to be at her best which she doesn’t get here.

12 Smart Layer (16/1): Japanese seven year old mare, that beat the boys at G2 level, including Tosen Basil, Vase runner, and Cheval Grand, Japan Cup winner. However only sixth in Fillies G1 since but not a bad run. However is a different horse under Yutaka Take. Fifth in the Vase 12 months ago.

Ratings: (3) POET’S WORD - (2) NEOREALISM - (4) WERTHER - (12) SMART LAYER - (8) GARLINGARI - (9) TIME WARP - (11) BLOND ME- (5) STAPHANOS - (1) DEAUVILLE - (10) WAR DECREE - (7) ROBIN OF NAVAN - (6) SECRET WEAPON

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog