The On-Course Eye, Edition 1

A new feature on the blog, a regular column from on-course expert Kiaran O'Brien.

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THE ON-COURSE EYE

The On-course Eye is a view from the racecourse where Kiaran O’Brien will attempt to pinpoint future winners based on recent performances. As we know there is no proven scientific formula to finding winners but with over twenty years of racecourse experience he hopes this column will highlight horses that may have slipped under the radar or could still be ahead of the handicapper.

All views are his own.

For many the countdown clock for the Cheltenham Festival in March is activated at Prestbury Park with a fantastic three days of National Hunt racing. Reputations will be enhanced, bubbles will be burst, gambles will be planned and ante-post portfolios built. Finding winners as ever will not be easy.

High on the list of ‘must see’ participants will be the Colin Tizzard-trained FINIAN’S OSCAR who holds an entry on Friday in the Steel Plate and Section Novices’ Chase over 2m4f. A facile winner of his only chase start date at Chepstow last month. He was forced to miss the Festival in March but proved his well being with a hugely impressive victory at Aintree three weeks later.

The strapping five-year-old is built for chasing and anything he did over the smaller obstacles was always seen as a bonus by connections who hold him in the highest regard.

Should he bypass this engagement the Tizzards have a more than able understudy in WEST APPROACH who dotted up on his fencing debut at Ffos Las over 2m5f. The half-brother to stable star Thistlecrack is more than capable of making a name for himself this season in his own right.

The feature event on Saturday is the BetVictor Gold Cup with current favourite Kylemore Lough making his first start for Harry Fry. A multiple winner as a novice he failed to get his head in front in four starts as a second season chaser. He has failed to score on any of his seasonal reappearance and has failed to score on three previous visits to the track.

Two horses that do catch the eye however are STARCHITECT and GO CONQUER.

Both are owned by Paul and Clare Rooney and trained by David Pipe and Jonjo O’Neill respectively. Both handlers have made excellent starts to the season and have a great record in this race having won three of the last six renewals between them. David’s father Martin used to farm this race season after season. Both are available at 16/1 and it would be interesting to see if both are allowed to take their chance

Sunday will see the reappearance of Fox Norton in the Shloer Chase and last season’s easy winner will be hoping to get his season off to the perfect start before setting his sights on bigger targets over the winter. He had an interrupted campaign after picking up a leg injury when winning this last season but the narrowest of defeats in the Champion Chase and subsequent victories at Aintree and Punchestown proved he is a horse of the highest quality.

Whether he is campaigned over the minimum trip this season or stepped up with the Ryanair a possible long term is yet to be determined but all options are open as it stands.

An eye catcher HELLS KITCHEN

If ever the change to front running / bowl along in front riding tactics would benefit a horse, then Hells Kitchen fits the bill perfectly. There is no doubt he has a huge engine but what he doesn’t have is a choke. The JP McManus-owned gelding has had just the two starts over fences and on both occasions, has almost pulled the arms off Barry Geraghty for three quarters of the race. Despite this, he has still been in contention at the business end when others would have given up the ghost.

He can jump, so I’d love to see him given his head from flag fall and see whether the rest can keep up with him as holding him up isn’t doing him any favours.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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