Wolverhampton Tues May 2 2yo race review

Wolverhampton 2030 Tues May 2
NoviceAuction Stakes
5f20yds, Class 5, 1m02.53s (slow by 2.73s)
Standard

Our Kid. Mar 25, €15k yearling, this win rated him equal to the best of the foals from dam Red Shoe. Jumped well, sat in the box seat, one back, one out. Came three wide on the turn, challenged under a hold at the 1f, then put the race away with a short burst. Wouldn't suggest there was a lot left, but had something still in hand. RPR of only 66 though, weakest of season.

Storm Doris. Sixth on debut at Bath behind the handy Mutanaaseq less than a fortnight earlier. Broke well, camped on the pace just behind leader. Challenged upon straightening, wobbled a bit under pressure as winner came longside. Kept on well but not able to challenge winner.

Shesgotthelot. Third at Kempton behind Corinthia Knight but beaten ten lengths. Away well, settled in midfield. Went for gap at top of straight then laid in at 1f, checking Captain Kissinger and Data Protection. Kept going, not beaten far but not certain she'd have beaten those she interfered with.

Data Protection. Apr 6, 12k gns yearling, half-brother to four winners. Slightly slow to begin, settled back along the rail. Outpaced on the bend when tried to switch around Shesgotthelot. Went back to the rail then got blocked badly behind tiring leader. Might have even won with some luck - but don't know how much acceleration he has.

Captain Kissinger. Beaten a long way on debut at Doncaster in the stronger Brocklesby division. Parked on the rail behind the leader which was a good plan until the leader held the rail and began to tire, in combination with Shesgotthelot laying in. Severe check at the furlong, ran on late. Decent run, much better than final margin.

Mirek. Last of seven on debut at Bath. Hood added. Way out the back early after missing the start, still 10+L behind on turn, fastest sectionals for each of last two furlongs. Out of camera shot but looked to be all hands & heels, screaming out watch next time.

Xaar Island. Apr 3, £2k yearling, Dam was useless. Jumped well, crossed to lead. Challenged on turn, weakened from 1f.

Good Night Out. Apr 25, €2500 yearling. Dam was a NH maiden, beaten out of sight every time. Settled back in the field, outpaced on turn, absolutely no effort from jockey in the straight, would have run up back of several horses had she kicked on and looked to have a bit left.

KEY POINTS
Plenty of interference in the straight, more interested in those outside the placings here. Data Protection and Captain Kissinger should have been right in the finish, Mirek stormed home after missing the start by 10L and the horse who ran last put in a very quiet one, potentially a big price next time out.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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