Skip to main content

Nottingham May 2 2yo race review

Nottingham 1410 Tues May 2
Fillies Novice Stakes
5f13yds, Class 5, 59.05s
(slow by 0.55s)
Good to Firm

Main Desire. Mar 18, €40k yearling. Camped just behind Mraseel on near side, always looked to have plenty up her sleeve. Given a gentle nudge inside the furlong, pushed out for about four strides and cruised away very impressively. By High Chaparral, expect her to go better the further she goes.

She Believes. Feb 8, 45k gns yearling. Half-sister to two RPR100+ horses. Followed Aquadabra down the middle, took lead in that group 1f out but never likely to reach the winner.

Aquadabra. Still hadn't turned two by this run (May 10 foal), finished third again with a consistent performance. RPR figs of 70,74,70 from career so far. Started favourite. Led down centre of track, pushed along at 2f, challenged 1f, battled on OK.

Mraseel. Last on debut at Newmarket in hot race a fortnight earlier. Money suggested a greatly improved run here, backe dfom 8/1 into 4s. Led on the near rail, under pressure at the 2f. Left behind by the winner but got going in the last furlong to make ground on the placegetters.

Silver Bullet. Apr 28, €55k yearling. Half-sister to three winners by Dark Angel. The two full brothers are lesser performed. Wayward out of the gate, shied away from other runners, ended up at the back. Came down centre of track, whip pulled 2f out, not going well, outpaced. Switched on late and kept pace with those ahead in closing stages, just a long way back. No interest at all on track, drifted from 9/1 out to 20s.

Lexington Grace. May 1, €36k yearling. Bit slow to begin, settled out the back on near side rail, never in the race, kept on OK at the end.

Queen Penn. Mar 29, 67k gns yearling. Half-sister to at least seven winners. Slowly away, out the back, never in the race, but came home OK.

Isoletta. Feb 25, home-bred, first foal. Dam won a 1m2f Listed race at final start, went out with OR98. Out the back, never in the race and dropped right out.

KEY POINTERS
Winner was super impressive in fast time, and third sets a decent benchmark for comparison. Main Desire has Group race potential and some of those back in the field ran on nicely late so they will have learned plenty.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...