Newmarket May 7 2yo race review

Newmarket 1610 May 7
Maiden Stakes
5f, Class 4, 1m0.54s (slow by 2.94s)
Good to Firm

Way of Wisdom. Mar 26, bred in house by Godolphin. Dam full sister to star Aussie mare Miss Finland (Golden Slipper and Oaks winner). Parked on the shoulder of the leader, challenged and took control in the last furlong. Margin not big but looked to have gears left. Yet another juvenile winner for Charlie Appleby.

Kit Marlowe. Feb 25, half-brother to at least nine winners. Fractious in the gates. Away well, settled rail-side of the leader and close up. Made move inside 2f, stuck to the task well but not good enough to beat the winner.

Qaaraat. Fourth on debut at Newbury Apr 21, strong race, behind Gold Town. Broke well, straight to the front. Challenged on both sides inside 2f, couldn't match them but not beaten far, nor slaughtered for the result.

Red Roman. Mar 8, 30k gns yearling. Settled behind the leader, poised to strike but couldn't go with them when it mattered. Kept on well, not beaten that far. Outsider of the six horse field, good enough run to follow.

De Bruyne Horse. Feb 26, £50k yearling (10k gns foal). Slowly away, pushed along early, settled at rear. Under pressure at halfway, gradually weakened.

Solid Man. Apr 7, half-brother to six winners in Japan. Slowly away, settled near tail but only three lengths of lead. Under pressure at halfway, gradually weakened.

KEY POINTS
Winner had something in hand and that stable is flying with 2yos. Runner-up was heavily supported and looks decent. Third horse was the only one with experience and did step up on RPR figures. Red Roman was unwanted in the betting and only beaten 2.5 lengths. There'll be a race for him soon with some decent placement.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog