Doncaster May 6 2yo race review

Doncaster 1750 Sat May 6
Novice Stakes
5f, Class 5, 1m0.39s (slow by 2.49s)
Good to Firm

Mutanaaseq. Won nicely on debut at Bath Apr 21, penalised here. Pinged the lids and went straight to the front alongside Bengali Boys, allowing him a half-length lead near halfway. Went for home at same time as that runner, 2f out, fought on well and just got the bob in on the line. Better jockey aboard probably made the difference. 15/8 into 11/8.

Bengali Boys. Won low rating race at Beverley Apr 19, but well supported from flying 2yo stable. Led, went for home at 2f, stride for stride with Mutanaaseq, 3lb claiming jockey perhaps not strong enough to get him home. Backed 4s into 3s.

Story Minister. Mar 9, £45k yearling. Half-brother to multiple winners, full sister Beldale Memory won first two starts, including Listed race at York. Slow to begin but no ground lost as pace was moderate. Poised nicely at 2f to make his run, kept on well but unable to go with the front two. Nice debut.

Jim Rockford. Green on debut at Newbury (Very green, erratic stride pattern and throwing head all over the place. Ran home nicely towards the end, a run which screamed 'watch me next time when I have a clue what I am doing'), Apr 21. Wanted to overrace again, camped behind the leaders and a slow pace. No answer when leaders went for home but kept to the task well, lengthening stride nicely toward the end.

Sinaloa. Nice third on debut at Pontefract Apr 24, but not one which screamed future greatness. Settled at tail, outpaced at 2f, poor run.

KEY POINTS
Mutanaaseq is tough and promising efforts from the next three. Sinaloa run too bad to be true.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog