Brighton Tues May 2 2yo race review

Brighton 1400 Tues May 2
Novice Auction Stakes
5f59yds, Class 5, 1m2.58s (slow by 1.98s)
Good (Good to Firm in Places)

Starlight Mystery. Third on debut at Leicester, missed start slightly here and had to settle behind leader (after being checked). Bit green/unbalanced coming down the hill. Got off the back of leader at 1.5f, went past these easily and kept going.

Super Florence. Apr 17, €9k yearling. Settled at tail, caught behind others when winner went for home and always struggling to make that ground up. By Zebedee, should be ready early, will be competitive once she learns to jump.

Floss The Hoss. Fourth on debut at Beverley when drawn wrong side. Away well, wanted to overrace early, sat outside leader coming down the hill. Under pressure at the 2f and just battled on from there.

Firenze Rosa. 100-1 on debut at Windsor. Led against the rail on a contested lead, went for home at bottom of the hill (2f) and got a small advantage but winner then loomed up and she weakened quickly.

Llamrei. Jan 30, £1k yearling. Sat three wide without cover. No acceleration when asked for it, got closer in final stages as others eased down.

KEY POINTS
Weak race, winner did it quite easily, runner-up will improve sharply if she gains barrier manners.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog