Beverley April 27 2yo race review

Beverley 1410 Thurs Apr 27
Novice Auction Stakes
5f, Class 5, 1m3.41s (slow by 2.41s)
Good to Firm

Emilia James. Impressive second on debut at Beverley eight days earlier when nabbed near the line. Officially backed from 8/11 to 4/9, but was available at better than evens in the morning. Straight to the front again and always in control. Four lengths clear under a tight hold at the 1f, didn't find a great deal more once urged along but result never in doubt.

Miss Bar Beach. Apr 3, €9k yearling. Half-sister to five winners. Green early, not keen to tuck in. More relaxed after 2f. Pushed along inside 2f making good ground and then ran on nicely once given a couple of taps with the whip inside final furlong. Had benefit of five lb claimer and started 50/1. Worth following.

Royal Crown. May 2, €25k yearling. Half-sister to seven winners. Jumped well, settled outside the pace. Unable to go with the leader when she went for home at the furlong, but kept on OK, decent gap back to fourth.

Shazzab. Mar 10, €10k yearling (sold twice). Half-sister to four 2yo winners and stable is flying with juveniles. Slow to begin, settled back on the rail. Blocked behind traffic early in the straight, pulled wide and ran on OK in latter stages. Better barrier manners will improve him greatly.

Hypnotic Dancer. Last on debut at Wolverhampton. Went forward, didn't like having to settle behind other horses, wanted to overrace. Wobbled into middle of track at 2f to make his run. Just battled on. A better run but still fairly average.

Plansina. Mar 24, £3k yearling (backwards from €5500 foal). Settled midfield, two back along the rail. Looked a chance 2f out when gaps opened but didn't run on.

Lady Lintera. Ordinary on debut at Redcar on debut. Broke well, settled behind the leader on the rail. Outpaced at 2f and soon under the whip. Weakened.

Monkey Magic. May 2, €22k yearling (sold twice). Trainer with terrible strike rate. Edged left at the start into open space, then sat wide in midfield facing the breeze. Tried to go with Miss Bar Beach from the 2f but soon outpaced, not overtaxed in final furlong.

Suanas. Mar 10, £12k yearling. First foal, looked second string from Fahey yard. Settled midfield behind the erratic Hypnotic Dancer. Wasn't too keen on that and dropped back a bit, but was never able to catch up again after that. A little green, weakened in straight.

Foxy's Spirit. Feb 6, £5k yearling. Fractious in the gates and reared at start, settled at the back. Barely ever on terms, first one beaten.

KEY POINTS
Winner bolted in, second horse ran on nicely but every man and his dog saw that, don't expect a fancy price.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog