Newcastle Friday Apr 14 2yo race review

Newcastle 2yo Friday Apr 14 1.50
Fillies' Conditions Stakes
5f, Class 2, 1m2.36s (slow by 4.36s)
Standard

Cheeseandpickle, Feb 11. £26k yearling. Becomes the eighth winner of 11 foals from a ten-start maiden mare. One of the oldest in this field. Smart Scottish stable with strong 2yo record, started favourite. Parked behind the leader under a nice hold. Worked around her when that horse didn't accelerate, took control 1f out and hung on to win without full exertion. Scope for more but RPR figure third-weakest of juvenile races so far.

Thrifty, Feb 22. Passed in for 2800gns as a foal. Dam won her only race in her final start (20th) despite earning a cheque in eight of first nine races. Top rating of 76, but won off 45. Fourth foal to date, only winner has won three of 40 starts. Settled midfield about a length and a half behind Cheeseandpickle, went right when winner went left to find the gap, outpaced and then worked home to be beaten similar margin. Trainer has only three placegetters from 38 2yo AW runners in past five seasons. May not mean a lot as this race was more valuable than the usual AW race.

Marsh Storm, Mar 13. €38k foal, €30k buyback by vendor as yearling. Trainer has had 90 runners in 2017, and remarkably all his winners have been 3yo on AW. All his 2yo starters have been placed. Settled behind the lead nearest the outside rail, with plenty of space. Under riding at halfway, took a while for the penny to drop. Stayed on last furlong to claim third.

Fas Le Fios, Feb 19. Had the benefit of a previous start in France where he finished six lengths behind the unplaced Quick Skips Lad who also has British form. Up on the speed, outpaced at the furlong, plugged on OK. Unwanted in the betting, so performed better than expected.

Controversial Lady, Feb 26. Second run in five days. Urged along early to sit very handy to the pace. Under pressure before halfway, last at the 2f. Stayed on OK through the field to claim fifth.

Peace Prevails, Mar 5. Vendor buyback for £20k as yearling, second foal of mare who won once from 10 starts (over a mile on Polytrack), peaking at OR74. Sat near the pace, closest to inside rail. Every chance, run lasted about five strides when asked for more at the 2f. Started 4/1, showed little to justify that.

Kheleyf's Girl, Feb 9. Eight day backup after running close second in that weak Southwell race. Stepped to the front, then asked to go at the 2f. Found nothing, disappointing for punters who expected to cash in on her experience.

Nsnas Alward, Feb 15. Vendor buyback for 10k gns as yearling, dam won over 1m4f in France so likely to be better with distance. Went forward to lead, looked comfortable but then found zero when pressured 1.5f out. May be better learning to settle and run home late.

Time for Treacle, Mar 13. From terrible mare who had eleven starts, couldn't win off OR45 and earned less than a grand. SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO BREED. Under pressure to keep up after a furlong and was gone by the 2f pole. Useless.

KEY POINTS
Winner might be decent but figures ordinary.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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