Bath Thurs Apr 14 2yo race review

Bath 1700 Thurs Apr 14
Conditions Stakes
5f11yds, Class 2, 1m2.97s (slow by 2.47s)
Firm

£20k race, quite lucrative for Bath.

Chagatai. Feb 1, €110k yearling, half-brother to two winners. 5/2 into 7/4 favouritism. Checked early as Airshow edged right, and pulled back to last, only costing him a length or two. Settled just behind them, mid-pack and covered on all sides. Tried to push between the leaders approaching the furlong, gap never opened and had to hook wide to make his run. Took a few strides to get balanced but accelerated nicely to claim victory on the line. Plenty more to come from this one, very strong through the line and kept going a long way past the post.

Last Page. Second on debut in Brocklesby. Missed start slightly, settled back and wide. Green and wanted to overrace. Challenged at the 2f, edged left at 1f to take the lead. Saw off Autumn Lodge and looked home until Chagatai flew home late. Once he gets his act together, could be quite a decent horse.

Autumn Lodge. Fifth on debut in Brocklesby. Jumped well from gate 10 to sit three wide just off the pace. Saw off leaders on the bend but soon challenged by first and second. Decent run, there'll be a race for him this season.

Jonnysimpson. Feb 25 foal, €7k yearling. Half-sister to two limited types with single-digit winning strike rate. Jumped well from widest gate, caught wide and just wanted to run. Outpaced by leaders inside 2f and looked likely to weaken, but stuck on nicely for fourth. Nice debut.

Shovel It On. Fourth on debut a week ago. Jumped OK, sat handy to the pace then struggled to keep up. Jockey has a peculiar style that makes it look he is hard riding a long way out. Stuck on OK but never really in the race.

Uther Pendragon. Mar 26. £15k yearling (€21k foal) by first-season sire. Began OK but lost concentration when others got closer to him and dropped back several lengths. Then worked around the field to make his run. Ran home OK but needs more racing education.

Zalshah. Backed from 8s into 3/1 backing the trainer blindly one would assume. Bounced out to share the lead. Under pressure inside 2f, saw off leader on the rail but soon challenged and weakened quickly.

My Guy. Feb 17. €7k vendor buyback as yearling, maidens only in Britain from this dam. Unruly on way to start, dived left when the gates open, lucky there was no rail there. Out the back, hard ridden to stay in touch. Detached at 2f, beat a few horses but only because Keniry rode him through to the line whereas most of long beaten brigade eased right up.

Airshow. Third on debut at Leicester seven days earlier. Bounced out of gates then went severely to the right, checking Chagatai. Found the rail behind the leader but outpaced in middle stages and gradually faded. Plodded in final stages, disappointing.

Demons Rock. Apr 30. €45k yearling (€27k foal), first foal of dam. Jumped away well, held lead on the rail alongside Zalshah. Shaken up inside 2f and gave nothing. From smart stable and well supported, disappointing.

Manco Inca. Beaten a long way on debut at Leicester a week earlier. Settled well back, a bit green, a bit slow. Nowhere near them in the straight. Just not much good.

KEY POINTS
Winner flew home late when clear, expect more. Last Page and Autumn Lodge had the benefit of experience and should win races reasonably soon. Nice debut from Jonnysimpson.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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