Skip to main content

Grand Sefton Chase preview

A brilliant weekend of National Hunt racing includes a rare visit to the hallowed ground of Aintree. Two previews lined up for the card there, the first of which is the Grand Sefton Chase, as previewed by young writer Adam Webb, @adamwebb121. You can read more of his work at OnTheOtherHoof.

----------------------

Betfred Grand Sefton Handicap Chase
£70,000, Class 2, 2m5f19y
1515 local, 0215 AEDT


Although the Becher Chase takes centre stage, and rightly so, the Grand Sefton looks a more competitive renewal than it has done in recent seasons with a couple of these having had this as a long-term plan.

The best place to start is with last year’s hero Bennys Mist, who has a mixed profile over these fences. Apart from his Topham Trophy second to Ma Filleule in 2014, his best efforts over these fences have come in this very contest with success twelve month ago and him finishing third to Poole Master the year before. Rated 7lb higher than last season, he comes here on the back of a disappointing return at Cheltenham but he tends to need his first outing before improving as the season progresses. The main concern tomorrow is whether the ground is too lively; all his wins having come on soft or heavy ground.

Seefood had threatened he was coming back to form when looking a non-stayer at Cheltenham over an extended 3m in October before landing the spoils in a weak enough contest at Musselburgh, although the margin of victory could well have been further had he not blundered at the last. A 7lb rise seems fair and, as long as his jumping holds up, he should be thereabouts in the finish.

As De Mee and La Vaticane can both be described as frustrating. They clearly possess ability, the former having placed in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices Chase behind Bristol De Mai at Sandown plus chased home More Of That at Cheltenham back in November of last year and the latter looked smart in her native France before joining David Pipe. She was arguably unlucky on her return at Market Rasen last month when cannoned into by Desert Queen at the final fence. The pair are sound jumpers on the whole but neither have convinced fully in a finish so can be passed over, especially with the long run for home after the final fence.

Others worth taking on include Henryville and Troika Steppes on the proviso their jumping has been an issue in the past. The former also has an unexplainable run to put behind him at Cheltenham. Vintage Vinnie is another who looks to bounce back from a poor effort in the BetVictor Gold Cup. However he may prove vulnerable as he looks at his best when able to dominate, something he won’t be able to do tomorrow, while Astracad’s best form comes when he is fresh and has disappointed over these fences before

The form of Valadom’s Bangor win looks very interesting in the context of this contest having beat Seventh Sky, who reopposes, in tenacious style over 3m. Richard Hobson’s grey has a rise in the weights to overcome but has been trained with this in mind, has experience of unique obstacles from running round Cheltenham several times in the cross country, and can use his jumping to a huge advantage from the front with Conor O’Farrell in for a hugely exciting spin. The aforementioned Seventh Sky was runner-up in this last year and another bold bid should be expected off a 4lb higher mark with him versatile regarding ground.

Conclusion

The clear standout at the prices available is VALADOM, who gets the nod based on his excellent jumping, the fact he is a front runner which can be a huge advantage around Aintree, and the nature of the track over this distance. Others worthy of consideration include Seventh Sky, who chased home Valadom at Bangor, and Seefood, who may prove to still be on a decent handicap mark.

1. Valadom
2. Seventh Sky
3. Seefood

Comments

  1. It's a shame Adam didn't do the Becher as he picked the winner of that. Two nice contributions for the Grand Sefton and the Becher though.

    ReplyDelete

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...