Skip to main content

Cheltenham 3.40 preview

Concluding the card at the home of National Hunt racing is the bumper, a race which often turns out a very good one. With only three runners having had more than one race start, there's a big sign saying POTENTIAL over all of them...

Casting a shrewd eye over the field is another blog debutant, Tony Amato, @mato66. Welcome aboard!

-------------------

EBF Stallions & Cheltenham Pony Club NHF
Listed, £20,000, approx 1m6f (1m5f209yds), New Course
1540 local, 0240 AEDT


Plenty of decent horses have won this race over the years; The New One, Modus and Wishful Dremaing to name just a few, so it's safe to say trainers know what they have when entering for this race. I'm going to concentrate on the ones I think will make the market (I write this Friday evening before markets are available) and the ones I think stand out.

COCKNEY WREN from the Harry Fry yard ran a fair second on debut at Taunton, beaten just a neck by a Henderson 4yr old. You can never discount one from this yard and Nicky Henderson described the winner in his stable tour as a "outstanding individual" so that run may be very good even though the race did look a match.

SHEARLING from the shrewd Brian Ellison yard won a bumper at Warwick showing a fine attitude, rallying to get up close to the line after looking beaten. She then went to Wetherby for a junior bumper and won again. It takes a decent sort to win a bumper with a penalty, so she is certainly one to look for in the betting.

DAPHNE DUE CLOS, from the all powerful Henderson yard won a bumper in France. We don't know how good the form is but it says something that her trainer starts her here. No doubt if the market speaks for her, we need to take note.

My selection for the race is CAP SOLEIL who won on debut at Newbury in a junior fillies race. This Fergal O'Brien inmate was backed like defeat was out of the question on debut and she didn't let her backers down. She cruised into the race and took it up 2f out, putting the race to bed like a nice sort. I don't know how strong that race was but there are very few bad Newbury bumpers, so I'm willing to go with this daughter of Kapgarde as she was visually impressive!

Selection CAP SOLEIL

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...