VRC St Leger preview

ANZAC Day for racing in Australia have never traditionally been a strong day, perched in between the autumn and winter carnivals, but one race which always takes place on this day is the VRC St Leger. Investment into staying races by Racing Victoria might eventually have the desired effect of raising the level of this race.

With the preview, it's the guys from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS. You can check out their services on their website.

---------------------

VRC St Leger
Flemington, 2800m, Listed race
R6 1600 AEST, 0700 BST
Form guide

PRS Speed Map

Pace rating we have on this is well above par for a staying trip like this. Both Authoritarian & Zatopaz led at very slow tempos last start (both producing slow time ratings) so it will be only a matter of who show their intention desperately early to lead outright. They will not fight each other hard at all as both jockeys know it would be extremely detrimental to their chances of running out the trip.

As our map highlights the three outside gates look the most disadvantaged runners as they will find it difficult to not be caught wide if they intend on attempting to settle in their desired positions. Colour Of Money gets an excellent run just off the speed two wide with cover without exerting any early energy.

Our Market:

This market is of our system's ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.

As you can see, our raw market is extremely open but does have some overlays present on the early corporate markets.

Colour Of Money - Ride queried last time at Gosford when just off a crawling tempo, was expected by analysts to go towards the rear but was clear jockey McEvoy just identified that there would be a lack of speed in the race (which was correct); just should’ve advised stewards. Good map here just parking off the pace again. Has plenty of fitness on his side which will be beneficial over this trip and like Dunn now riding. Can produce some improvement and threaten.

General James - Disappointing here last start when a significant drifter in betting and lost by 9L. Efforts prior rated superior. Has two major queries into this being that the map looks a problem early and whether he will stay the trip. If drifts late in the betting we will ignore him.

Cuban Fighter - Too strong for them on Sunday, raced clear in maiden on heavy surface. On back up off that large PB coming onto drier surface interesting, certainly looked outclassed in three earlier runs in campaign but this gelding is an out and out stayer. Positive rider change with Craig Williams on does help. Likely to be our most significant overlay present.

Zatopaz - Led at crawling speed and was able to kick clear and win in style at Gosford, was well backed late that day. Will have to work much harder if wants to lead but am confident if Hall digs up early and shows his intentions he will be able to cross and then switch off. Hard to see him holding that rating here but in this race he isn’t required to. Tough to run down.

Recommended Bets: We will be advising clients to use our wagering software to back the overlays present. If No.2 drifts significantly late in betting then would be happy to ignore that overlay.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog