Victoria Derby preview

Eponymous race of the day is the AAMI Victoria Derby. Every year we have the debate about whether a Derby so early in the season should be shortened. Nothing's changed over the past few decades, we're still not breeding great stayers, but perhaps, just perhaps, the penny is finally dropping with local breeders and the strength of the Derby might start improving as the likes of Americain, Fiorente and others start adding to the breeding mix.

Back to this year's race and it revolves around one horse. Let's ask the shrewd gents at Premium Punting which side of him they want to be...

------------------------

AAMI Victoria Derby
G1, 2500m, for 3yo
Race 7 - 3:45PM local time (0445 London)

By Premium Punting
Website
Twitter: @premiumpunting

Form link

Speed Map

This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they choose to run to their previous historical pattern.

As most Derbies are, expect it to be genuinely run. The query is whether connections of The Mighty Jrod intend on attempting to cross and lead with only a 200m run to the first tight turn out of the home straight. He will cross Gouldian & Lotion who will push on and be in the first few. Connections of Moonovermanhattan also have a decision to make as he could be trapped three wide around the first turn with favourite Hampton Court likely going to make it difficult for him to cross him.

The likes of Royal Standing & Magicool will likely have to concede settling further back than desired.

PP Market:

As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.

It’s all about Hampton Court

Very talented colt who raced clear in the G1 Spring Champion to win very well. Beat home the very talented First Seal and also Sweynesse who ran well in the Cox Plate last week. Extremely good time rating on the race being rated 12L above the benchmark, with the first 400m time being one of the fastest ever recorded on our database. Stable has stated will go back to his usual racing pattern of settling near the speed which will be advantageous as he will keep danger Moonovermanhattan caught deep around the tight first turn.

The critical variable factored into this horses short prices quote on our market is that at set weights he is not only 12 Official Handicapper Points (OHR) to the second runner, but a massive 31 OHR to No.3 Prentice whose rating is off inferior races in Perth.

We advised Premium Racing Services clients on Monday to back the colt at $3.00 on Monday and we do expect him to continue to be backed, particularly late when all the heavy money is laid down.

Be more than happy to accept the current prices on offer.

RECOMMENDED BETS
Confident in backing HAMPTON COURT strongly.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog