The smart chaps at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting, website, have finished their analysis of this week's Group 1 race in Melbourne.
---------------------------
Underwood Stakes
Caulfield
Race 7 - 4:00PM G1, 1800 METRES
Speed Map
As our map shows, a lack of speed is evident in the race with Star Rolling the only on pace runner in our grid. This of course has the potential to be identified and taken advantage of by the astute jockeys in the field, with Lidari the likely one digging up from his inside gate to make company on the speed. Don’t be surprised if a horse is ridden completely against their historical pattern and previous pace ratings and take up the lead. Look out for race tactics notifications from the stewards before the race.
Key Historical Factors:
There are only three interesting historical factors been identified in this race which have been categorised into two groups:
INTO THE RACE:
- No mare has won since 1985 (and was run at 2000m back then).
- Past four winners been 2nd up after resuming in a 1400m G1 three weeks earlier (Silent Achiever).
OUT OF THE RACE:
- 6/30 Melbourne Cup winner participated in this race, with last one being Viewed (2008).
- 13/30 Caulfield Cup winners participated in the race, with the last one also being Viewed (2009).
Pre-post Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.
Silent Achiever (NZ)
First up effort ok in Memsie when held up late so margin was slightly affected. No mare won this race since 1985 but has right historical form pattern into this second up off a 1400m G1 run. Won 3/5 second up including G1 over 2000m in NZ last campaign. As our WFA scale is different to the official handicappers, the 2kg lighter weight to the rest of the field is very beneficial and is more than capable of advancing enough to win.
Foreteller (GB)
Was super strong late in the G2 Dato, not many horses can make up the ground he did between straightening up and through to the winning post. Third up last preparation hit a very large figure in the Australian Cup that would easily win this race. Unlikely to ‘bounce’ high enough this preparation to hit that level again and the lack of speed on the map is of concern. Is still capable of producing a strong last furlong and has the potential to swamp them down the outside late in an expected tight finish.
Star Rolling
Inevitably rated down off PB rating win 1st up in the PB Lawrence, had to chase a tough leader in The Cleaner which is no easy task. In two runs this preparation has taken some damage, has producing two tough, grinding runs. Map on paper does help and could get an easier time of it at the front. Has found his correct price in the current marketplace.
The Offer (IRE)
Very good first up, went to line very well and am confident the connections would’ve been very pleased with the run onwards to bigger things. Second up previously has advanced between 2-3L. Map could be a little query, if intends to settle midfield could be trapped early but due to the long run to the first corner Berry has plenty of time to find cover either handy or off-midfield. With the expected advancement is certainly capable of winning this race onwards to the cups. Like all our chances, is just a slight underlay.
Recommended Bets:
As our system is very accurate with the elite horses in particular, it can sometimes lead to our markets on our race looking very similar to the public markets.
We will be advising our clients to pass on the race. There are some other good wagering opportunities on the day.
---------------------------
Underwood Stakes
Caulfield
Race 7 - 4:00PM G1, 1800 METRES
Speed Map
As our map shows, a lack of speed is evident in the race with Star Rolling the only on pace runner in our grid. This of course has the potential to be identified and taken advantage of by the astute jockeys in the field, with Lidari the likely one digging up from his inside gate to make company on the speed. Don’t be surprised if a horse is ridden completely against their historical pattern and previous pace ratings and take up the lead. Look out for race tactics notifications from the stewards before the race.
Key Historical Factors:
There are only three interesting historical factors been identified in this race which have been categorised into two groups:
INTO THE RACE:
- No mare has won since 1985 (and was run at 2000m back then).
- Past four winners been 2nd up after resuming in a 1400m G1 three weeks earlier (Silent Achiever).
OUT OF THE RACE:
- 6/30 Melbourne Cup winner participated in this race, with last one being Viewed (2008).
- 13/30 Caulfield Cup winners participated in the race, with the last one also being Viewed (2009).
Pre-post Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.
Silent Achiever (NZ)
First up effort ok in Memsie when held up late so margin was slightly affected. No mare won this race since 1985 but has right historical form pattern into this second up off a 1400m G1 run. Won 3/5 second up including G1 over 2000m in NZ last campaign. As our WFA scale is different to the official handicappers, the 2kg lighter weight to the rest of the field is very beneficial and is more than capable of advancing enough to win.
Foreteller (GB)
Was super strong late in the G2 Dato, not many horses can make up the ground he did between straightening up and through to the winning post. Third up last preparation hit a very large figure in the Australian Cup that would easily win this race. Unlikely to ‘bounce’ high enough this preparation to hit that level again and the lack of speed on the map is of concern. Is still capable of producing a strong last furlong and has the potential to swamp them down the outside late in an expected tight finish.
Star Rolling
Inevitably rated down off PB rating win 1st up in the PB Lawrence, had to chase a tough leader in The Cleaner which is no easy task. In two runs this preparation has taken some damage, has producing two tough, grinding runs. Map on paper does help and could get an easier time of it at the front. Has found his correct price in the current marketplace.
The Offer (IRE)
Very good first up, went to line very well and am confident the connections would’ve been very pleased with the run onwards to bigger things. Second up previously has advanced between 2-3L. Map could be a little query, if intends to settle midfield could be trapped early but due to the long run to the first corner Berry has plenty of time to find cover either handy or off-midfield. With the expected advancement is certainly capable of winning this race onwards to the cups. Like all our chances, is just a slight underlay.
Recommended Bets:
As our system is very accurate with the elite horses in particular, it can sometimes lead to our markets on our race looking very similar to the public markets.
We will be advising our clients to pass on the race. There are some other good wagering opportunities on the day.
Comments
Post a Comment
Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.