Skip to main content

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes preview

It's rare to have a Sunday feature race meeting in Australia, but on Grand Final weekend in Melbourne, it's a wise move. The sharp blokes at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting, have chipped in with a brief preview of today's big race, the Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup. It's a long name but as of this year, it's a huge charity day with many good causes set to benefit from it.

-----------------------------------

Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup
Race 7 - 4:40PM, Caulfield
Group 1, 1400 metres


Speed Map



As our map shows there is good, genuine speed expected here with both Sweet Idea & Sistine Demon wanting to lead. Of these I expect Sistine Demon to be the likely one to cross and lead outright. The others should be able to lob into their positions besides outsider Alma’s Fury, who if he goes forward will be trapped wide facing the breeze. Dissident looks the get a great map finding the 1x1 box seat with cover.

Key Historical Factors:
There are four interesting historical factors been identified in this race:
- 16/30 started from double digit gate, with 10/16 of those being from barrier 14 or wider.
- 1/13 (Toorak Toff) have carried more than 55.5kg.
- 2/13 have won on minimum weight
- 5/7 have come off top five placing in Bobbie Lewis Handicap at Flemington.

Points 2 and 3 both almost eliminate themselves with this weights scale, with only three horses (Speediness, Sweet Idea & Alma’s Fury) not qualifying for one of the factors.

PrePost Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.



Dissident
Two runs to date have been excellent including a tough win in G1 Makybe Diva last run. Win prior here over same distance in Memsie was simply outstanding. Back to 1400m third-up interesting as top weight. Although the weights scale suggests that he could be unfairly weighted on our figures he is actually entitled to carry 1.5-2kg more. Third-up last campaign was when he won his first G1 and with the excellent map all he is required is to produce a similar rating to last starts win against a superior field to be difficult to catch again and make it 3/3 this preparation. Excellent overlay for a proven performer.

Sweet Idea
Two performances so far rated very similarly. Was brave in both efforts and did well 2nd up to fight off challengers behind the impressive Dissident. Freshened, has the capability of springboarding third up like she did last campaign when winning Group 2 at Randwick. Will want to lead again but it isn’t a major disadvantage if she gets crossed. Has been in the quinella in 12/15 races and with her dropping 3kg from WFA in last two runs she will be difficult to run down also. Can also be backed.

Recommended Bets: Back both DISSIDENT & SWEET IDEA. Expect both to firm late in betting.

Visit the Premium Punting website here.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...