Skip to main content

JRA Cup preview

Another feature race preview from Moonee Valley night racing on Friday, not with one of the black type 3yo races but with a traditional spring riches lead-up race, this time featuring the new people's horse, The Cleaner, who just jumps to the front and runs his rivals ragged, bringing back memories for my favourite ever horse, the one who got me hooked on racing, the mighty Vo Rogue.

Enough reminiscing, it's assignment number two for Mitch Nicholls, give him some support via @MitchNicholls1.

----------------------------

Alternate Railway JRA Cup
Moonee Valley 2040m G3
Race 6 9:15pm


Fantastic race! The speed comes from out wide with The Cleaner pushing forward from barrier 10. Mourinho will come across and settle somewhere close to the speed from 12 then I’d suggest Lord Durante will hold his spot from gate 4 perhaps with Big Memory close behind.

1 The Cleaner $3.60 (TAB fixed-odds prices quoted): This bold-front running gelding is in career-best form, stringing together two wins a row (three on the trot here) with his last success being the best of the lot, the Group Two Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes over 1600m. The Dato’ has so far proven to be a strong form reference, with the third horse Foreteller going on to win the feature Group One Underwood Stakes on Saturday, and the seventh-placed Gris Caro claimed the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes. Steps up 440m on last start but has been victorious seven times from 2000-2200m. He is a $3.60 favourite and will be the one they’ll have to run down. And on-course punters will be cheering him on - the race club have promised half-price schooners until the next race in all bars if he wins!

2 Precedence $14.00: This nine year old gelding is on another Cups campaign. He comes into this race second-up off a fair run first-up, where he was doing his best work late. He’s a bit of a smokey each-way chance in a fairly open race. He’s won five out of nine career starts at Moonee Valley and won this race way back in 2010! He’ll get back and run on from a good tempo set by The Cleaner.

5 Mourinho $4.50: Has been in very good form of late, winning here first-up then was brave running second to The Cleaner where he was posted wide, but still hit the line strongly, beaten under a length. Should be at his peak third up and is unbeaten this track/distance. My only concern is his draw, barrier 12. He might be posted wide in a race that is sure to be run at a fast pace. Meets The Cleaner 2.5kgs better for a 0.75L defeat last start.

8 Big Memory $5.00: This former French gelding arrives in good form, being beaten a nose a fortnight ago at Flemington by the injury-plagued Brambles. He has had one start for a win at Moonee Valley. This is without a doubt his toughest test yet, and I feel he’s a risk at $5.00. Yet to win second up, and is likely to be better over 2400m.

11 Signoff $5.00: Has the boom on him, being trained by Darren Weir, wearing the same colours as last year’s spruik horse Puissance de Lune, and having won six of his first nine starts, including two from two here. The lightly-raced five year old gelding comes into this race with an eye catching third behind Brambles and Big Memory. A proven middle distance/staying type with two wins over 2000m, he is drawn well in barrier two and shouldn’t get too far back over this sort of distance. Expect him to be hitting the line well.

Suggested Bet: Happy to have The Cleaner on top, he’ll be hard to catch and I believe $3.60 is an attractive price. Good luck, and hopefully we all find a winner!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...