Vicbred Super Series Finals preview Friday July 4
by @thepunter80
Race 2: 2yo trotting colts and geldings
A no bet race for me but should be a good clash between two top quality juvenile trotters here. Eljaykay Phoenix and Illawong Armstrong have both been super impressive in their short careers to date. The barrier draw has advantaged Eljaykay Phoenix so that probably makes it the top pick, but I don’t really have an opinion either way as to which one is the better horse. Neither of them are foolproof, so don’t look enticing betting propositions to me. Black Valley is still a maiden after eight starts but has been racing really well and will be thereabouts at the finish. Fabrication has only had two starts but has good gate speed and could put itself into the race early.
Race 3: 3yo trotting colts and geldings
A more open race here, but the favourite Spidergrace is still probably the horse to beat. Has got good gate speed and looks the likely leader, but I don’t want to be taking the short odds with Laura Crossland on board. Imamenace has only had one start, but ran a ripping race and looks to have plenty of ability. He lacks experience and will need a soft run, but could be very dangerous at big odds if things go his way. Savannah Jay Jay also ran a super race at its first start in the same race as Imamenace and then backed that up with another excellent performance behind Spidergrace. He also has a good chance at odds. Tiavons Dream has the ability to win and can improve on its first up run for the Lang stable. Asdenro, Guiltless and Drunken Maniac can all be competitive.
Race 4: 4yo trotting mares
From a punting perspective this is a complete non-event. Spidergirl is a top class trotting mare who should win this by a big space at prohibitive odds.
Race 5: 4yo trotting entires and geldings
To me, this is the most interesting race of the night. Six months ago Blitzthemcalder was being heralded as the next big thing in trotting, but things have changed recently. He has had three runs back from a spell for a new trainer and although winning the first two, proved very little. Last start he did plenty of work in the run and never looked likely to be prominent in the finish. He doesn’t possess much gate speed so he won’t be in front and probably can’t do too much work in the run so his best chance of winning might be to be driven cold. His best would win the race easily, but on his recent form he would struggle to win. I don’t really know what to make of him. The Boss Man struggled last start after sitting outside Blitzthemcalder, but his previous form was excellent and he might be the leader here, although Lance on Invasive might also want to charge across and try to find the front. Vincennes was given no possible chance to win as an odds-on favourite last start, but it’s previous second to Blitzthemcalder was excellent, and she could win this with the right run in transit. Glenferrie Dreamer, Lord Liam, Steal A Sixpence and to a lesser extent Invasive, Bellmac Kody and Basil Knight can all be competitive, but are probably not good enough to win. Should be a really good race.
Race 6: 3yo trotting fillies
Claudy’s Princess is a top class filly who has won her last eight starts for part owners @joshblackmarket and @spiderh2311 and will again go around as an odds-on favourite here. However, I think that she might have to produce a career best to win this. I can see Illawong Helios handing up the front to Illawong Moonshine and then getting the cosy run behind the leader. Claudy’s Princess will probably need to do some work in the run at some stage, whether going forward to the death early, or going back at the start and then coming three wide in the last lap. If this scenario unfolds and Illawong Helios gets the run at the right time I think she might be the winner. Four Lillies won impressively last start and could also be competitive with the right run in transit.
Race 7: 2yo trotting fillies
This is the race that I am most keen to bet in. Hard Done By is only a one-paced battler but gets a massive driving change here. Gavin Lang takes over the reins from hobby trainer/driver Tom O’Shea and I can see this horse improving big time. Currently $18 with Tab which seems a good price to me. Hush Your Majesty galloped at the start in its heat and made up a lot of ground to finish third. Currently $26 with Tattsbet which seems big overs to me. All The Way Mae made up good late ground from back in the field in a slowly run race in its heat, and could be a rough chance at massive odds. The favourite Endsino has got a good chance, but I don’t want to be on it at the current price. Donski won well at its first start and has also got a chance here.
Best value bets:
Race 3 no 8 Imamenace
Race 7 no 10 Hard Done By ($18 Tab)
Race 7 no 11 Hush Your Majesty ($26 Tattsbet)
by @thepunter80
Race 2: 2yo trotting colts and geldings
A no bet race for me but should be a good clash between two top quality juvenile trotters here. Eljaykay Phoenix and Illawong Armstrong have both been super impressive in their short careers to date. The barrier draw has advantaged Eljaykay Phoenix so that probably makes it the top pick, but I don’t really have an opinion either way as to which one is the better horse. Neither of them are foolproof, so don’t look enticing betting propositions to me. Black Valley is still a maiden after eight starts but has been racing really well and will be thereabouts at the finish. Fabrication has only had two starts but has good gate speed and could put itself into the race early.
Race 3: 3yo trotting colts and geldings
A more open race here, but the favourite Spidergrace is still probably the horse to beat. Has got good gate speed and looks the likely leader, but I don’t want to be taking the short odds with Laura Crossland on board. Imamenace has only had one start, but ran a ripping race and looks to have plenty of ability. He lacks experience and will need a soft run, but could be very dangerous at big odds if things go his way. Savannah Jay Jay also ran a super race at its first start in the same race as Imamenace and then backed that up with another excellent performance behind Spidergrace. He also has a good chance at odds. Tiavons Dream has the ability to win and can improve on its first up run for the Lang stable. Asdenro, Guiltless and Drunken Maniac can all be competitive.
Race 4: 4yo trotting mares
From a punting perspective this is a complete non-event. Spidergirl is a top class trotting mare who should win this by a big space at prohibitive odds.
Race 5: 4yo trotting entires and geldings
To me, this is the most interesting race of the night. Six months ago Blitzthemcalder was being heralded as the next big thing in trotting, but things have changed recently. He has had three runs back from a spell for a new trainer and although winning the first two, proved very little. Last start he did plenty of work in the run and never looked likely to be prominent in the finish. He doesn’t possess much gate speed so he won’t be in front and probably can’t do too much work in the run so his best chance of winning might be to be driven cold. His best would win the race easily, but on his recent form he would struggle to win. I don’t really know what to make of him. The Boss Man struggled last start after sitting outside Blitzthemcalder, but his previous form was excellent and he might be the leader here, although Lance on Invasive might also want to charge across and try to find the front. Vincennes was given no possible chance to win as an odds-on favourite last start, but it’s previous second to Blitzthemcalder was excellent, and she could win this with the right run in transit. Glenferrie Dreamer, Lord Liam, Steal A Sixpence and to a lesser extent Invasive, Bellmac Kody and Basil Knight can all be competitive, but are probably not good enough to win. Should be a really good race.
Race 6: 3yo trotting fillies
Claudy’s Princess is a top class filly who has won her last eight starts for part owners @joshblackmarket and @spiderh2311 and will again go around as an odds-on favourite here. However, I think that she might have to produce a career best to win this. I can see Illawong Helios handing up the front to Illawong Moonshine and then getting the cosy run behind the leader. Claudy’s Princess will probably need to do some work in the run at some stage, whether going forward to the death early, or going back at the start and then coming three wide in the last lap. If this scenario unfolds and Illawong Helios gets the run at the right time I think she might be the winner. Four Lillies won impressively last start and could also be competitive with the right run in transit.
Race 7: 2yo trotting fillies
This is the race that I am most keen to bet in. Hard Done By is only a one-paced battler but gets a massive driving change here. Gavin Lang takes over the reins from hobby trainer/driver Tom O’Shea and I can see this horse improving big time. Currently $18 with Tab which seems a good price to me. Hush Your Majesty galloped at the start in its heat and made up a lot of ground to finish third. Currently $26 with Tattsbet which seems big overs to me. All The Way Mae made up good late ground from back in the field in a slowly run race in its heat, and could be a rough chance at massive odds. The favourite Endsino has got a good chance, but I don’t want to be on it at the current price. Donski won well at its first start and has also got a chance here.
Best value bets:
Race 3 no 8 Imamenace
Race 7 no 10 Hard Done By ($18 Tab)
Race 7 no 11 Hush Your Majesty ($26 Tattsbet)
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