Skip to main content

Dubai Sheema Classic preview

The focus of world racing this weekend will be on Dubai with the rich World Cup meeting at Meydan. Most races will be covered on the blog, and to begin proceedings, it's over to Harriet Fuller, @HattieLFuller, for the USD$5m Dubai Sheema Classic. You can read more of her work on her blog.

-----------------------

Dubai Sheema Classic

The Sheema Classic may not be the highlight of Saturday’s meeting at Meydan, but it will be a contest full of class. This year we have sadly lost the last hero of this race; St Nicholas Abbey, who lost his battle against colic. However, once again there is a strong line up, including Cirrus Des Aigles. The winner of this race in 2012 may be past his sell by date, but ran a credible third in the Hong Kong Cup in December, and there may well be one last celebration.

A lot of the talk recently has been surrounding the Japanese superstar Gentildonna. In 2012 she won the Japanese Fillies Triple Crown, before becoming the first three-year-old filly to win the Japan Cup. Back in November last year, under Ryan Moore – who takes the ride on her again on Saturday – she became the first horse to win the Japan Cup twice. Moore has talked up her chances before the race, but she will have to overcome a rather undesirable draw in stall 12.

The Japanese will also be represented by Denim And Ruby who was narrowly beaten by Gentildonna in the Japan Cup. Clearly full of potential, the four-year-old filly may just find this race too challenging, and there are others who have more appeal.

Ten of the last twelve winners were among the four top rated horses in the race, this year they include Cirrus Des Aigles, Dominant, Dunaden, Gentildonna, Magician and Twilight Eclipse (There are six because of three joint fourths).

Dominant tends to be a late runner and preferably needs a strong pace, which he may not get here, and Dunaden hasn’t won in eleven races. The case against Twilight Eclipse is that he has never won when in Group 1 Company, and Saturday looks tougher than some of his previous races.

It is Magician who, so to speak, has all the tricks needed to be victorious in the Sheema Classic. As far as trends go in the race, wins at Group 1 level are vital, and Magician has plenty to show for that. A disappointing performance in the St James Palace Stakes, he certainly made amends when winning the Breeders Cup, defeating The Fugue in the process. That is no easy job, and the victory puts him in a very good position for Saturday, and drawn in stall 4, there is every chance he will pull a winning performance out of the hat.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...