Skip to main content

Oh So Sharp Stakes preview

Newmarket's Cambridgeshire Festival is underway and tomorrow's meeting begins with a Group III race for the 2yo fillies. And when the babies of the turf are in action, who better to call upon than @twoyearoldtips. For previews of juvenile races all year round, visit his blog.

----------------

Aqlaam Oh So Sharp Stakes, 1.40pm, 7f, Group III

Gown- Charlie Hills inmate who was a fortunate winner of a Sandown nursery off of 72 on her penultimate outing. Was unable to win off 76 in a nursery on her most recent start and looks to be flying too high in this company.

Lightning Thunder- Unbeaten filly who comes here having won a conditions race at Doncaster last time. The runner up that day Justice Day is a useful tool, albeit likely flattered by his OR of 101, and her performance can be upgraded as she had a difficult passage early on. Showed a good attitude to get up close home that day and very much respected back against her own sex.

Midnite Angel- Richard Hannon juvenile who despite having won only one of her seven starts comes here with the arguably the strongest form in the book. Her seconds behind J Wonder and Ihtimal stand up to scrutiny in this field and although slightly disappointing last time she still ran with credit behind the potentially top class Amazing Maria. Rated 97 it is likely she will find one or two too good but should run her usual honest race.

Miss France- Well-bred Andre Fabre filly who arrives here on the back of a conditions race victory at Chantilly last time. Obviously difficult to weigh up that form, needs to improve on RPRs, but is trained by a master and doubtful she is coming over to make up the numbers. Very much one to take seriously with Mickael Barzalona on board.

Radiator- The X factor of the field who routed her rivals by 15 lengths at Lingfield on her second start. Would be natural to assume that wasn't a great race but the second was only beaten 2.5 lengths by group placed Wedding Ring next time at HQ. From an incredible family and obviously has any amount of talent, but may be an all or nothing type, beaten 10 lengths on debut, and has to be opposed purely on value grounds here.

Sleep Sioux- Winner of a Bath maiden on her fifth visit to the racecourse and highly unlikely to follow up here.

Stealth Missile- Has contested two Ascot maidens finishing down the field on debut before springing a 25/1 surprise last time out. Not sure that was a strong maiden, for all that the fifth was an impressive winner on Wednesday. Looks like a classic example of Clive Brittain aiming too high.

Suite- Debut winner who has had her limitations exposed since. Only sixth in her last two runs off of a mark of 88 she looks to be out of her depth in this company.

Sweet Acclaim- From a mare who had produced four winners from four runners and who cost £100,000, so it was therefore surprising she was allowed to go off at 40/1 on debut at Yarmouth. That looked a decent maiden for the track, but she made it into a procession winning eased down. Likely she has been found a warm heat but definitely has potential and could run into a place at big odds.

Verdict
A race that revolves around the impeccably bred Radiator who having won by a furlong last time is as short as 12/1 for next years 1000 guineas. However she was well beaten, when fancied, on debut and at the current odds has to be taken on. A credible opponent can be found in the shape of Lightning Thunder who is unbeaten and showed a willing attitude to win against the boys last time. Her trainer has been talking up a trip to Paris on Arc weekend and she will have to take this if she is to make the trip across the channel. Coming the other way is Miss France who is a very rare two year old runner on these shores for her faultless trainer and she has to be taken very seriously. Of the rest Sweet Acclaim looked useful on debut and can make the frame at rewarding odds.

1 Lightning Thunder
2 Miss France
3 Sweet Acclaim

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...