Joe Hirsch Classic preview

Super Saturday at Belmont racetrack in New York. Regular US racing contributor Jon da Silva, @creamontop chimes in with some previews...

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Joe Hirsch Classic
1mile 4f Turf
Belmont

Joe Hirsch was a sportswriter apparently. Of course I always think of this as the Judd Hirsch the star of Taxi which broke the view that US comedy was not funny something Friends spent 10 series proving was true after all.

You probably want a Bookies to back this with all the dual entries. Timeform are predicting a fast pace here and Brisnet pace horses run from 0 to 8 and we have two 8s and a 7 = Burn up.

Imagining (coupled with Boisterous)
Allowance and stakes horse seeming exposed in graded company.

Boisterous (coupled with Imagining)
Has wins over Big Blue Kitten but beaten last two including by the progressive Big Blue Kitten over course and distance. Won the Man O War grade 1 earlier this year however beaten in a grade 2 last time. Not clear why he should bounce back and over turn the Sword Dancer form here with the Kitty.

Big Blue Kitten (Joe's Blazing Aaron & Real Solution)
He's not blue and he's no pussycat so there is a chance David Cameron might like him unlike Downing Street cat Larry who is apparently a PR stunt a bit like Cam' himself. No showed behind So You Think last year at Ascot but does show the ambitions connections held for this fella. Last 2 big wins over 11 and 12 furlongs so this should suit well. Will be coming late if you back him.

Real Solution (coupled with Big Blue Kitten & Real Solution)
Real Solution is not the name of a soccer team BTW as the town of Solution does not have one and may not exist. The ummh winner in the stewards room of the Arlington Million - valid DQ but writers like to make everything controversial. Previously an Italian Derby winner who has only had 3 starts in the US. Can win but I think I take against the Million in that Side Glance was 3rd showing running prominently on tight foreign tracks brings loads of prize money for one paced group 3 horses. Could progress again.

Joe's Blazing Aaron (coupled with Big Blue Kitten & Real Solution)
A Brisnet pace indicator of 8 says this is the pace and we may assume this will suit his coupled mates.

Nutello
The continental Marmite you either love this fella or you hate him. So my view was he came to the US for fast ground and 10 furlongs and wo he should get that here except it's 12 furlongs again.... Did not settle (nuts?) on his US debut behind Big Blue Kitten over 12 furlongs but I felt he could have gone closer. Big pace on here and I believe he will relax and step forward.

Slumber
Ex Charlie Hills Listed type. Won a couple of optional claimers in the US very impressive in last win. Could step forward here on 4th US start but will need to.

Twilight Eclipse
2nd to Boisterous and Big Blue Kitten last 2 starts. Solid grade 2 animal but often finds 1 better.

King Kreesa
Another with the 8 pace. This one has the ability to get loose and win too. 2nd to Wise Dan last time which is the equivalent of winning the race you are in. Seems to have been campaigned as a miler so obvious doubt there. One for the lone pace twitchy eyed brigrade except there is some other pace in this race, sorry fellas.

Little Mike
2012 Million and Breeders Cup winner and has been bang out of form. The sweeping nature of Belmont and the pace loaded up in this race says to me he will not dominate or win. The 3rd race back from Dubai swivel eyed loon brigade will like him.

Conclusion

Could make a case Big Blue Kitten overpriced at Coral's 4s but for me Nutello maybe nowhere near as good as Marmite but makes for a tasty treat here. Bung him in an exacta with the Big Blue Kitten entry and book a holiday (The value of investments can go up and go down to 0 so make sure you can cancel it later at no cost).

Nutello 12s with Lads so you should be able to get a 10er on.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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