More great racing from Chicago previewed by Davy Lane, @loscharruas.
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Beverley D Stakes
The markets say the 24th running of the Beverly D stakes is a three horse race. Marketing Mix is the 2/1 US Morning Line Favourite. Duntle and Dank are generally 3/1 Co Favs in UK markets.
Armando de la Cerda has booked a big time jockey for La Tia in Kent Desormeaux. Desormeaux's experience should help the front running La Tia make best of the inside draw. If Desormeaux can lull the field to sleep then La Tia has an outside chance for a place. The more likely scenario is that La Tia will be smoked coming down the stretch. Save your money.
Duntle is a very capable horse. I was confident about her Beverly D chances before her latest outing at Deauville. Some commentators suggested it was a credible performance. I disagree. She gave Elusive Kate no race at all and only took 2nd place on the nod. She has guts, but that ain't going to be enough to win here.
Solid Appeal has guts also. She has been a winning machine in Canada, though admittedly in Group 2 company. I particularly like how comfortable she has looked in her races. She grinds out her wins when pushed. Racing comes easy to her. It was muted Joel Rosario would take the ride from Jesse Campbell. Not so. This tells me connections like Campbell's relationship with the horse. The general 12/1 offered by English bookies is good each way value.
Dank has been impressing the clockers at Arlington in recent days. There is not much to choose between Duntle and Dank, but Dank's recent win at the Curragh had both power and zip. I expect Dank to be right there. Moore's Law, again.
Gifted Girl was very impressive at Pontefract last time out. She is not flying to Chicago for nothing. She is a contemporary of Duntle and Dank and could rise to the occasion. I don't expect her to win this. Yes, she'll give the favourites a run for their money. But no, you shouldn't be thinking about investing any of your money. The prize money for 4th and 5th place will pay for her trip. The connections see this as no lose scenario. They won't lose and you won't win.
Marketing Mix is the best horse in the race. She would have won this last year but for having to take the circuitous route. Gary Stevens is booked. Paddy Power were offering an incredible 5/1 earlier this week. Clearly, europunters were being sucked into playing the horses they know. Marketing MIx remains as high 7/2. That still super value.
Starformer came good last time up winning the New York Stakes at Belmont in July. This daughter of Dynamformer has racked up lots of Group 3 prize money, but this contest will be more searching than she is used to. Stay away.
Artemus Kitten has no chance. She is drawn to the outside and won't have the pace to overtake. Corals have floated her at 50/1. She is 30/1 on the US Morning Line. Some of you may be sweet on Rosie Napravnik. That's no excuse.
Ausus is the value horse in the race. The outside draw may help inflate her price, but it will her style. Ausus finished 4th in the Group 1 Jenny Wiley stakes at Keeneland back in April. She was a 56/1 shot then. Subsequently she ran 4th in a Group 3 and just blew the field away last time up in the Group 3 Modesty Handicap at Arlington Park. Running in the familiar Shadwell blue, this lightly raced daughter of the Argentine stallion Invasor is the horse that could get among the favourites at the finish. She's 12/1 with most UK bookies.
Prediction
Dank will try to run them into the ground before the Quarter Pole. Solid Appeal will not be phased. Jess Campbell will sit motionless. Marketing Mix will cover both of them. Duntle will crack and end up racing Gifted Girl for minor money. Dank and Solid Appeal will dual down the home stretch. Marketing Mix will pass them in the final 100 yards. Ausus will swoop late, but not in time to catch Marketing Mix.
1st 6. Marketing Mix 2/1 US ML; 7/2 Paddy Power Best Price
2nd 4. Dank 7/2 US ML; 7/2 Coral
3rd 9. Ausus 10/1 US ML; 12/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill
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Beverley D Stakes
The markets say the 24th running of the Beverly D stakes is a three horse race. Marketing Mix is the 2/1 US Morning Line Favourite. Duntle and Dank are generally 3/1 Co Favs in UK markets.
Armando de la Cerda has booked a big time jockey for La Tia in Kent Desormeaux. Desormeaux's experience should help the front running La Tia make best of the inside draw. If Desormeaux can lull the field to sleep then La Tia has an outside chance for a place. The more likely scenario is that La Tia will be smoked coming down the stretch. Save your money.
Duntle is a very capable horse. I was confident about her Beverly D chances before her latest outing at Deauville. Some commentators suggested it was a credible performance. I disagree. She gave Elusive Kate no race at all and only took 2nd place on the nod. She has guts, but that ain't going to be enough to win here.
Solid Appeal has guts also. She has been a winning machine in Canada, though admittedly in Group 2 company. I particularly like how comfortable she has looked in her races. She grinds out her wins when pushed. Racing comes easy to her. It was muted Joel Rosario would take the ride from Jesse Campbell. Not so. This tells me connections like Campbell's relationship with the horse. The general 12/1 offered by English bookies is good each way value.
Dank has been impressing the clockers at Arlington in recent days. There is not much to choose between Duntle and Dank, but Dank's recent win at the Curragh had both power and zip. I expect Dank to be right there. Moore's Law, again.
Gifted Girl was very impressive at Pontefract last time out. She is not flying to Chicago for nothing. She is a contemporary of Duntle and Dank and could rise to the occasion. I don't expect her to win this. Yes, she'll give the favourites a run for their money. But no, you shouldn't be thinking about investing any of your money. The prize money for 4th and 5th place will pay for her trip. The connections see this as no lose scenario. They won't lose and you won't win.
Marketing Mix is the best horse in the race. She would have won this last year but for having to take the circuitous route. Gary Stevens is booked. Paddy Power were offering an incredible 5/1 earlier this week. Clearly, europunters were being sucked into playing the horses they know. Marketing MIx remains as high 7/2. That still super value.
Starformer came good last time up winning the New York Stakes at Belmont in July. This daughter of Dynamformer has racked up lots of Group 3 prize money, but this contest will be more searching than she is used to. Stay away.
Artemus Kitten has no chance. She is drawn to the outside and won't have the pace to overtake. Corals have floated her at 50/1. She is 30/1 on the US Morning Line. Some of you may be sweet on Rosie Napravnik. That's no excuse.
Ausus is the value horse in the race. The outside draw may help inflate her price, but it will her style. Ausus finished 4th in the Group 1 Jenny Wiley stakes at Keeneland back in April. She was a 56/1 shot then. Subsequently she ran 4th in a Group 3 and just blew the field away last time up in the Group 3 Modesty Handicap at Arlington Park. Running in the familiar Shadwell blue, this lightly raced daughter of the Argentine stallion Invasor is the horse that could get among the favourites at the finish. She's 12/1 with most UK bookies.
Prediction
Dank will try to run them into the ground before the Quarter Pole. Solid Appeal will not be phased. Jess Campbell will sit motionless. Marketing Mix will cover both of them. Duntle will crack and end up racing Gifted Girl for minor money. Dank and Solid Appeal will dual down the home stretch. Marketing Mix will pass them in the final 100 yards. Ausus will swoop late, but not in time to catch Marketing Mix.
1st 6. Marketing Mix 2/1 US ML; 7/2 Paddy Power Best Price
2nd 4. Dank 7/2 US ML; 7/2 Coral
3rd 9. Ausus 10/1 US ML; 12/1 Bet 365, Paddy Power, William Hill
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