The spotlight on Aussie racing is now firmly on Queensland, and tomorrow all the action is at Doomben, with the feature race being the G1 Doomben Cup. Making a return to the blog for this preview is Josh Humbler, the wise man behind the Excelleresport website which also provides trading advice on EPL, La Liga and the PGA Tour. You can also follow him on Twitter, @excelleresport. Welcome back!
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RACE 7: Kirks Doomben Cup, 2000m, Group 1
From a rapidly deteriorating Eagle Farm last week we move to our first week at Doomben. It is unusual scheduling and may lead to unusual patterns at a track that can play to a bias at time. A key point from the main lead up - the Hollindale Stakes - the 3yo Fillies GC Bracelet on the same day ran a second quicker.
#1- Manighar ($9.50): ran an odds-on favourite in this event last year. This is his worst campaign since arriving in Australia and while his trainer wants to strongly push his chances we must look elsewhere.
#2 - Danleigh ($23): started at $10 in the lead up which makes his price seem generous here. Needs to sit handier from this gate and is not without his chance.
#3 – Ginga Dude ($61): an honest enough front runner, though the race was run to suit last start. His winning form is not at Group 1 level, more Group 3/Listed level.
#4 - Foreteller ($4): remarkably consistent campaign and the most likely horse coming out of the Hollindale. Gets a great run, though I just question the form from that event.
#5 – Lamasery ($8): unbeaten 3rd up and progressing well in this campaign. Comes through the questionable lead up though his form is not as exposed as most this campaign. Each way chance.
#6 - Zabeelionaire ($26): did enough last start at Flemington in a race suited to front runners. That pattern may well exist in this race which provides him with a place chance at best
#7 - Lightinthenite ($26): battles to run a strong 2000m and will struggle at this level. Risk him
#8 - Beaten Up ($8): deserves to be favourite in my book. Developing well through his campaign and his form looks better after today's Scone Cup. Presents 4th up here and will get the run of the race
#9 - Lights of Heaven ($3.80): shortest price and winner of the lead up. Likely to get a great run again, however I find her difficult to entertain at the price. Personally I have rated her at $31. Worth laying.
#10 – Secret Admirer ($15): brings different form to the event, which appeals. Good enough in the Queen Elizabeth and always runs well in Group 1 races. Winning strike rate prevents me from elevating her though I expect her around the mark.
#11 – Fibrillation ($41): different form again, though conditions to suit last time out. Competitive in mares grade, however it is hard to see that form translating to a Group 1 at weight for age
#12 – Zurella ($31): the proud owner of a big finish and her lightly raced nature provokes thought. Finished just behind Secret Admirer though ahead of Manighar in the Queen Elizabeth. Rough chance
#13 – Pimms Time ($31): beat Quintessential (won at EF last wk) in NZ last time out. That was her first stakes success and they have chosen the most in form Qld jockey to sit on. Another who provides place interest
#14 – Hippopus ($9.50): the sheer success rate of 3yo's against older horses this season implores you to include this horse. Likely to sit on speed and all conditions suit. I expect him to be in striking distance at the turn and with a turn of foot, likely to be very competitive.
SUMMARY – The Hollindale form should be opposed which leaves is with 8 - Beaten Up primarily. The 3yo record suggests we include 14 - Hippopus. Both will provide profitable results.
Trifecta & First 4 players should play those two to win with 1,2,4,6,9,10,12,13
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RACE 7: Kirks Doomben Cup, 2000m, Group 1
From a rapidly deteriorating Eagle Farm last week we move to our first week at Doomben. It is unusual scheduling and may lead to unusual patterns at a track that can play to a bias at time. A key point from the main lead up - the Hollindale Stakes - the 3yo Fillies GC Bracelet on the same day ran a second quicker.
#1- Manighar ($9.50): ran an odds-on favourite in this event last year. This is his worst campaign since arriving in Australia and while his trainer wants to strongly push his chances we must look elsewhere.
#2 - Danleigh ($23): started at $10 in the lead up which makes his price seem generous here. Needs to sit handier from this gate and is not without his chance.
#3 – Ginga Dude ($61): an honest enough front runner, though the race was run to suit last start. His winning form is not at Group 1 level, more Group 3/Listed level.
#4 - Foreteller ($4): remarkably consistent campaign and the most likely horse coming out of the Hollindale. Gets a great run, though I just question the form from that event.
#5 – Lamasery ($8): unbeaten 3rd up and progressing well in this campaign. Comes through the questionable lead up though his form is not as exposed as most this campaign. Each way chance.
#6 - Zabeelionaire ($26): did enough last start at Flemington in a race suited to front runners. That pattern may well exist in this race which provides him with a place chance at best
#7 - Lightinthenite ($26): battles to run a strong 2000m and will struggle at this level. Risk him
#8 - Beaten Up ($8): deserves to be favourite in my book. Developing well through his campaign and his form looks better after today's Scone Cup. Presents 4th up here and will get the run of the race
#9 - Lights of Heaven ($3.80): shortest price and winner of the lead up. Likely to get a great run again, however I find her difficult to entertain at the price. Personally I have rated her at $31. Worth laying.
#10 – Secret Admirer ($15): brings different form to the event, which appeals. Good enough in the Queen Elizabeth and always runs well in Group 1 races. Winning strike rate prevents me from elevating her though I expect her around the mark.
#11 – Fibrillation ($41): different form again, though conditions to suit last time out. Competitive in mares grade, however it is hard to see that form translating to a Group 1 at weight for age
#12 – Zurella ($31): the proud owner of a big finish and her lightly raced nature provokes thought. Finished just behind Secret Admirer though ahead of Manighar in the Queen Elizabeth. Rough chance
#13 – Pimms Time ($31): beat Quintessential (won at EF last wk) in NZ last time out. That was her first stakes success and they have chosen the most in form Qld jockey to sit on. Another who provides place interest
#14 – Hippopus ($9.50): the sheer success rate of 3yo's against older horses this season implores you to include this horse. Likely to sit on speed and all conditions suit. I expect him to be in striking distance at the turn and with a turn of foot, likely to be very competitive.
SUMMARY – The Hollindale form should be opposed which leaves is with 8 - Beaten Up primarily. The 3yo record suggests we include 14 - Hippopus. Both will provide profitable results.
Trifecta & First 4 players should play those two to win with 1,2,4,6,9,10,12,13
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