People outside Australia will have heard of the Melbourne spring carnival and the Sydney autumn carnival, and they are great in their own right, but they are spread out over several weeks, in the big city, so if you live there, there's no chance to get away and enjoy complete immersion in the racing and the off-course festivities. The best week for that in Australia is the Warrnambool carnival - three consecutive days of flat and jumps racing in a seaside town almost three hours away from Melbourne. Close enough to drive down for the day if you really wanted to, but also far enough away to justify staying for the week. And what a week it is.....
Joining the blog this week to preview several races is @TheTrialFiles - a website which bases its analysis on ..... trials! More details below.
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WARRNAMBOOL Carnival Day 1
The Trial Files (www.thetrialfiles.com) are going to preview all flat races throughout the Warrnambool Carnival as an extra to our normal Blackbook preview. We have a number of Blackbookers running over the next few days, but there is also a few standout bets outside of these that are worth looking at. The ‘Bool carnival is one of the best betting events on the racing calendar and it is famous for huge betting moves and massive fields. Best of luck for the next three days and hopefully we can steer you into a few winners. Firstly we have summarised the information below for those who don’t have time to read it all:
• Race 3 DESIGN FOR LIFE looks an absolute standout on the card at the ‘Bool, the $2.25 fixed on offer is more than generous.
• Race 5 OH SUSANNAH with a save on SHADANE is the play.
• Extended quaddie for the ‘Bool; 1,4,5,8,9 / 1,3,4,6,9,11,12 / 2,7,11,13,14 / 1,7,13,16
• Skinny quaddie for the ‘Bool; 1,5,8,9 / 4,6,9 / 2,7,11 / 1,7,13,16
WARRNAMBOOL Race 3 DESIGN FOR LIFE & JUNCTION JACK
Trial Comments
DESIGN FOR LIFE Werribee 15th April - BANG CRASH WALLOP! This is what you like to see in a trial and especially fr0m the astute Smerdon stable. This horse will not be a maiden for long, and cannot wait to see him step out over 1200M or even a little further next time out as he will be a betting proposition.
JUNCTION JACK Colac 25th March - was the pick of the bunch here. This was his first trial and he looks a professional racehorse. Follow him early in his career.
Summary
JUNCTION JACK has since had a run when well beaten by the favourite Moonsmoke at Werribee. The run was OK, and he hit the line like the 1200M here would be more favourable.
Assuming THE PRINCELING and ROSE OF CENTAINE, who ran on Sunday, will be scratched here.
First starter, MULTI, trialled at Werribee and led them up before being throttled down late. The trial was OK, but really doubt she has the speed to cross from barrier 13 and will find it hard to get in better than three off the fence.
STAR OF THE WEST and ZARA’S BALCONY will push forward and race for the early lead. Fancy that STAR OF THE WEST will end up taking up the running. Up to the 1200M from 1000M, DESIGN FOR LIFE shouldn’t be too far away in the run and benefit from a nice trail. JUNCTION JACK probably needs to be ridden for luck from the draw and his best bet is to push forward and try and slot in behind the leaders.
This really looks the race for DESIGN FOR LIFE. His first up run over the unsuitable 1000M at Sandown was outstanding and the trial since has shown he has improved immensely from that run. He has come up $2.25 (TAB, even after all the scratchings) in early markets and we see that as great value, very confident he will get the carnival off to a winning start. In terms of dangers most have been scratched, but it wouldn’t surprise if JUNCTION JACK got into the trifecta or first four and he may represent huge value.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 4
Summary
The 2YOs do battle here in a rich Vobis Gold Race. Unraced and untrialled runners are 4,8,9,11 and 17 and the markets MUST be watched on these.
THIAMANDI has tremendous early speed and will lead these with MEZERAY MISS the clear next in line. THIAMANDI has come up favourite, but we question her ability to run a strong 1000M and at the price she has to be avoided. MEZERAY MISS is clearly the horse to beat. She ran cracking time over the 1000M at Cranbourne and then backed it up with another slick gallop over the 900 at Sandown. She can camp on THIAMANDI and straight on by at the 200M mark. STAR DESTINATION looks the value selection, she was green when debuting in a strong race behind ITAMERI and CALCATTA.
Given the amount of unknowns here we would be wanting close to $4 about MEZRAY MISS but she is clearly the standout selection.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 5 SHAMARINO and OH SUSANNAH
Trial Comments
SHAMARINO Hamilton 3rd April - Settled third early but showed amazing pace to fly around the outside of the field passing the 600m and kept going. She maintained her wide run around the turn and ended up in the middle of the track down the straight. Nice trial. Looked like this Shamardal filly just wanted to run. Given a cut with the whip upon straightening to keep her mind on the job but kept going in the straight. Mixed her form last prep but in good order it seems. Best form with the sting out of the ground slightly
Colac 25th March - The only horse worth following from this heat is OH SUSANNAH. She was given a very easy time by Lane, and although finishing last, she had these horses covered by panels. Was a winner at her first start at Morphettville, and looks set to run a big race first up this time in.
Summary
SHAMARINO has since run at Naracoorte and was disappointing. OH SUSANNAH went around a heavily backed favourite after its trial and was an absolute tragedy beaten for TTF followers when she got back early and came twelve wide on the turn before running the winner (who had the dream split) to 0.4 of a length.
BALZAC (also accepted Thursday) does look the likely leaders here from the wide draw with TESTA GRIGIA the other horse pushing forward. Confident that Yendall will not allow OH SUSANNAH to get back like she did last start and he will position her up right on the speed. The pace doesn’t look overly strong here and the race could set up well for those on speed.
SHAMARINO was disappointing at Naracoorte and would need to lift considerably to be competitive here.
OH SUSANNAH on the other hand is without doubt the horse to beat. Her debut win in Adelaide over a reasonable field really showed above average ability and her trial and subsequent run at Stawell gave every indication she is going as well as ever. Interesting to note she was a natural leader early in her career, further adding confidence that Yendall will use the gate and press forward here.
The main danger is SHADANE who was brilliant in winning his only start to date at Mornington. He bolted up to the field on the turn and put them away very quickly. He was erratic that day and hung very badly, which meant the rider couldn’t get at him as much as he would have wanted to, and he could have won the race by much further. He bled that day and has served his three month ban as a result. The only thing against him today is he was slowly away on debut, and that was 1200M, and he looks like he will get a fair way back over 1100M here. Any give in the track wouldn’t dent his chances. Keen on OH SUSANNAH at $3.70 fixed currently and SHADANE as a saving bet (but to make profit on the race) at $8.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 7
Summary
UNIQUE STORM and WEE MAC from wide draws will push forward and look for the lead while THE FOUR LADS will kick up from an inside draw. Fancy the aforementioned two will eventually find the front and THE FOUR LADS will end up taking a sit.
NERVE TEST has come up a short priced favourite and she did run well when getting back at Ballarat first up before charging to the line and finishing second. Couple of concerns here, barrier one is against her as she will get back and need plenty of luck in the straight and we really feel she is looking for 1200M plus at this stage.
KACHADA looks super value at around $21. He won very well on debut at Yarra Valley before a luckless run here at the ’Bool. He was trapped wide early and copped a couple of checks. He dropped out on the turn but really liked his last 100M. He will take a midfield spot in the running line from his widish draw and can be right in the finish.
THE FOUR LADS is the horse to beat on its debut win. He was outstanding when winning by 6 lengths over 1200M on debut, leading all the way. He is going to be up on the pace making his own luck.
CHICAGO MISS is super value at $61 and will relish carrying just 55.5kg here. She can definitely make her presence felt and is huge overs.
RED CORNER appears to be at its best on rain affected going, although it was slightly unlucky not to finish closer first up after racing wide. Happy to work around it here as it will be right back near the tail of the field.
Happy to work around a couple of the favourites here in RUSHWORTH and NERVE TEST, although both must go into the quaddie. Recommended win bet on THE FOUR LADS with something EW on both KACHADA and CHICAGO MISS at huge odds.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 8 OAK HEART
Trial Comment OAK HEART Colac 25th March - had plenty more to offer in this trial. Being a 1200M trial I would expect it to kick off its campaign over 1400 or 1600M, in which case it would be very competitive.
Summary
OAK HEART has had two runs since the trial and both have been reasonably poor. This is his last chance to show something before being put on the scrapheap.
ROSELLO was noted as a poor trialler at Terang, but would be very wary of any market move as this is obviously a target race first up over 1700M and the stable are very astute.
ALROUZ is a natural leader and will run them along here up to the 1700M for the first time this preparation. SMARTY MAC form out wide and UMATAIN look the next two in line along with ME HUNGI who will kick up from the inside draw. ME HUNGI shapes as the horse to beat, he has a great record at the track and has run some really smart time here at the ‘Bool. He was forced to do the chasing last time out and the eventual winner just had the lovely drop on him the whole way. He will be better ridden with a bit of cover from barrier one and will be hard to hold out with luck in the straight. The early market move for OAK HEART suggests he is ready to run a big race and third up last time in he ran a close second in a 1700M race at Flemington. That form is good enough to be right in the finish.
Happy to take the $4 ME HUNGI with something on OAK HEART who has already been well backed from $21 into $8, he will likely drift a little closer to the race as money comes for other runners. In the quaddie would include; THE WINGMAN (no luck at MV and should have finished much closer), FASMOSS (has a great first up record, and has had a few jumps trials to build fitness for this), EVENMOREACTION, ALROUZ (who can run a race up on the speed) and ANLON (very consistent). Wide leg, but keen on ME HUNGI and OAK HEART.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 9 STREET CRIER
Trial Comment
STREET CRIER Colac 25th March - was definitely the pick of the bunch. He coasted to the line under an absolute stranglehold and could have very easily put this trial to bed.
Summary
WANNAJEWEL will come over from a wide draw and match OAMARU’S CHOICE early, these two should set the tempo. RED RAIN will be next in line and GLENMAURA / PEPPY KOALA will form the rest of the speed. STREET CRIER will get back beyond midfield, but the pace does look OK here.
STREET CRIER went to Morphettville first up and was a solid second over the 1050M and he is better suited to the 1200M today.
WANNAJEWEL has an imposing first up record and his recent Terang trial is worth noting in. He was restrained early before hitting the line nicely behind Dusty Star, suggesting he is once again primed for a huge first up tilt. He has switched to the Corstens stable this preparation.
CASH BOUND was smashed in early markets, $19 into $6, but it’s hard to see him winning on recent form, although the blinkers do go back on for the first time in five runs.
WANNAJEWEL shapes as a ripping EW bet here around the $11 mark currently. He will get up on the speed, trialled well enough and has a cracking first up record. The TTF Blackbooker, STREET CRIER, will be hitting the line hard provided horses can make ground on day one and is worth an EW saver if that is the case. Adding GOLD BRIDIAN (great first up) and GENERAL ORDERS (who trialled OK before luckless first up run, improves here) into the quaddie.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 10
Summary
RAZOR will lead from LET THEM HAVE IT, but there does look solid speed here for a 2300M race with the likes of RETLAW LAD, REGINA CEOLI (especially up from 1600M to 2300M), MICKIEM (really forced to go forward from horror draw) and MUJADALE all liking to race handy. Really think they will run this race at a decent clip and that will give backmarkers every chance to run over the top.
WELLS is really going to enjoy the strong tempo up front. His last run over 2000M at Seymour was super, coming from near last to all but win. He has been to the ‘Bool three times for two wins and is ideally suited getting out to the 2350M at this stage of his preparation. At $7 he represents a great each way betting option as the race sets up perfectly for his racing style.
MUJADALE is the main danger. He sat second last start at Ballarat before taking over on the turn and booting away to a most impressive win. He will find it harder here as the pace will be more hotly contested early, but he is right in the mix.
THE WILD THING looks massive odds at $41. His last run at Sandown was full of merit and if you go back a few runs he ran ME HUNGI to 0.5L when that horse was absolutely flying. He is going to appreciate the hot tempo up front and will be running home strongly.
Tough way to finish. Having an EW bet on WELLS with something on THE WILD THING at $41 and a saved on MUJADALE. Play this three prominently in all tricks. Adding WHITE KNIGHT for the quaddie.
Joining the blog this week to preview several races is @TheTrialFiles - a website which bases its analysis on ..... trials! More details below.
-----------------------
WARRNAMBOOL Carnival Day 1
The Trial Files (www.thetrialfiles.com) are going to preview all flat races throughout the Warrnambool Carnival as an extra to our normal Blackbook preview. We have a number of Blackbookers running over the next few days, but there is also a few standout bets outside of these that are worth looking at. The ‘Bool carnival is one of the best betting events on the racing calendar and it is famous for huge betting moves and massive fields. Best of luck for the next three days and hopefully we can steer you into a few winners. Firstly we have summarised the information below for those who don’t have time to read it all:
• Race 3 DESIGN FOR LIFE looks an absolute standout on the card at the ‘Bool, the $2.25 fixed on offer is more than generous.
• Race 5 OH SUSANNAH with a save on SHADANE is the play.
• Extended quaddie for the ‘Bool; 1,4,5,8,9 / 1,3,4,6,9,11,12 / 2,7,11,13,14 / 1,7,13,16
• Skinny quaddie for the ‘Bool; 1,5,8,9 / 4,6,9 / 2,7,11 / 1,7,13,16
WARRNAMBOOL Race 3 DESIGN FOR LIFE & JUNCTION JACK
Trial Comments
DESIGN FOR LIFE Werribee 15th April - BANG CRASH WALLOP! This is what you like to see in a trial and especially fr0m the astute Smerdon stable. This horse will not be a maiden for long, and cannot wait to see him step out over 1200M or even a little further next time out as he will be a betting proposition.
JUNCTION JACK Colac 25th March - was the pick of the bunch here. This was his first trial and he looks a professional racehorse. Follow him early in his career.
Summary
JUNCTION JACK has since had a run when well beaten by the favourite Moonsmoke at Werribee. The run was OK, and he hit the line like the 1200M here would be more favourable.
Assuming THE PRINCELING and ROSE OF CENTAINE, who ran on Sunday, will be scratched here.
First starter, MULTI, trialled at Werribee and led them up before being throttled down late. The trial was OK, but really doubt she has the speed to cross from barrier 13 and will find it hard to get in better than three off the fence.
STAR OF THE WEST and ZARA’S BALCONY will push forward and race for the early lead. Fancy that STAR OF THE WEST will end up taking up the running. Up to the 1200M from 1000M, DESIGN FOR LIFE shouldn’t be too far away in the run and benefit from a nice trail. JUNCTION JACK probably needs to be ridden for luck from the draw and his best bet is to push forward and try and slot in behind the leaders.
This really looks the race for DESIGN FOR LIFE. His first up run over the unsuitable 1000M at Sandown was outstanding and the trial since has shown he has improved immensely from that run. He has come up $2.25 (TAB, even after all the scratchings) in early markets and we see that as great value, very confident he will get the carnival off to a winning start. In terms of dangers most have been scratched, but it wouldn’t surprise if JUNCTION JACK got into the trifecta or first four and he may represent huge value.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 4
Summary
The 2YOs do battle here in a rich Vobis Gold Race. Unraced and untrialled runners are 4,8,9,11 and 17 and the markets MUST be watched on these.
THIAMANDI has tremendous early speed and will lead these with MEZERAY MISS the clear next in line. THIAMANDI has come up favourite, but we question her ability to run a strong 1000M and at the price she has to be avoided. MEZERAY MISS is clearly the horse to beat. She ran cracking time over the 1000M at Cranbourne and then backed it up with another slick gallop over the 900 at Sandown. She can camp on THIAMANDI and straight on by at the 200M mark. STAR DESTINATION looks the value selection, she was green when debuting in a strong race behind ITAMERI and CALCATTA.
Given the amount of unknowns here we would be wanting close to $4 about MEZRAY MISS but she is clearly the standout selection.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 5 SHAMARINO and OH SUSANNAH
Trial Comments
SHAMARINO Hamilton 3rd April - Settled third early but showed amazing pace to fly around the outside of the field passing the 600m and kept going. She maintained her wide run around the turn and ended up in the middle of the track down the straight. Nice trial. Looked like this Shamardal filly just wanted to run. Given a cut with the whip upon straightening to keep her mind on the job but kept going in the straight. Mixed her form last prep but in good order it seems. Best form with the sting out of the ground slightly
Colac 25th March - The only horse worth following from this heat is OH SUSANNAH. She was given a very easy time by Lane, and although finishing last, she had these horses covered by panels. Was a winner at her first start at Morphettville, and looks set to run a big race first up this time in.
Summary
SHAMARINO has since run at Naracoorte and was disappointing. OH SUSANNAH went around a heavily backed favourite after its trial and was an absolute tragedy beaten for TTF followers when she got back early and came twelve wide on the turn before running the winner (who had the dream split) to 0.4 of a length.
BALZAC (also accepted Thursday) does look the likely leaders here from the wide draw with TESTA GRIGIA the other horse pushing forward. Confident that Yendall will not allow OH SUSANNAH to get back like she did last start and he will position her up right on the speed. The pace doesn’t look overly strong here and the race could set up well for those on speed.
SHAMARINO was disappointing at Naracoorte and would need to lift considerably to be competitive here.
OH SUSANNAH on the other hand is without doubt the horse to beat. Her debut win in Adelaide over a reasonable field really showed above average ability and her trial and subsequent run at Stawell gave every indication she is going as well as ever. Interesting to note she was a natural leader early in her career, further adding confidence that Yendall will use the gate and press forward here.
The main danger is SHADANE who was brilliant in winning his only start to date at Mornington. He bolted up to the field on the turn and put them away very quickly. He was erratic that day and hung very badly, which meant the rider couldn’t get at him as much as he would have wanted to, and he could have won the race by much further. He bled that day and has served his three month ban as a result. The only thing against him today is he was slowly away on debut, and that was 1200M, and he looks like he will get a fair way back over 1100M here. Any give in the track wouldn’t dent his chances. Keen on OH SUSANNAH at $3.70 fixed currently and SHADANE as a saving bet (but to make profit on the race) at $8.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 7
Summary
UNIQUE STORM and WEE MAC from wide draws will push forward and look for the lead while THE FOUR LADS will kick up from an inside draw. Fancy the aforementioned two will eventually find the front and THE FOUR LADS will end up taking a sit.
NERVE TEST has come up a short priced favourite and she did run well when getting back at Ballarat first up before charging to the line and finishing second. Couple of concerns here, barrier one is against her as she will get back and need plenty of luck in the straight and we really feel she is looking for 1200M plus at this stage.
KACHADA looks super value at around $21. He won very well on debut at Yarra Valley before a luckless run here at the ’Bool. He was trapped wide early and copped a couple of checks. He dropped out on the turn but really liked his last 100M. He will take a midfield spot in the running line from his widish draw and can be right in the finish.
THE FOUR LADS is the horse to beat on its debut win. He was outstanding when winning by 6 lengths over 1200M on debut, leading all the way. He is going to be up on the pace making his own luck.
CHICAGO MISS is super value at $61 and will relish carrying just 55.5kg here. She can definitely make her presence felt and is huge overs.
RED CORNER appears to be at its best on rain affected going, although it was slightly unlucky not to finish closer first up after racing wide. Happy to work around it here as it will be right back near the tail of the field.
Happy to work around a couple of the favourites here in RUSHWORTH and NERVE TEST, although both must go into the quaddie. Recommended win bet on THE FOUR LADS with something EW on both KACHADA and CHICAGO MISS at huge odds.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 8 OAK HEART
Trial Comment OAK HEART Colac 25th March - had plenty more to offer in this trial. Being a 1200M trial I would expect it to kick off its campaign over 1400 or 1600M, in which case it would be very competitive.
Summary
OAK HEART has had two runs since the trial and both have been reasonably poor. This is his last chance to show something before being put on the scrapheap.
ROSELLO was noted as a poor trialler at Terang, but would be very wary of any market move as this is obviously a target race first up over 1700M and the stable are very astute.
ALROUZ is a natural leader and will run them along here up to the 1700M for the first time this preparation. SMARTY MAC form out wide and UMATAIN look the next two in line along with ME HUNGI who will kick up from the inside draw. ME HUNGI shapes as the horse to beat, he has a great record at the track and has run some really smart time here at the ‘Bool. He was forced to do the chasing last time out and the eventual winner just had the lovely drop on him the whole way. He will be better ridden with a bit of cover from barrier one and will be hard to hold out with luck in the straight. The early market move for OAK HEART suggests he is ready to run a big race and third up last time in he ran a close second in a 1700M race at Flemington. That form is good enough to be right in the finish.
Happy to take the $4 ME HUNGI with something on OAK HEART who has already been well backed from $21 into $8, he will likely drift a little closer to the race as money comes for other runners. In the quaddie would include; THE WINGMAN (no luck at MV and should have finished much closer), FASMOSS (has a great first up record, and has had a few jumps trials to build fitness for this), EVENMOREACTION, ALROUZ (who can run a race up on the speed) and ANLON (very consistent). Wide leg, but keen on ME HUNGI and OAK HEART.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 9 STREET CRIER
Trial Comment
STREET CRIER Colac 25th March - was definitely the pick of the bunch. He coasted to the line under an absolute stranglehold and could have very easily put this trial to bed.
Summary
WANNAJEWEL will come over from a wide draw and match OAMARU’S CHOICE early, these two should set the tempo. RED RAIN will be next in line and GLENMAURA / PEPPY KOALA will form the rest of the speed. STREET CRIER will get back beyond midfield, but the pace does look OK here.
STREET CRIER went to Morphettville first up and was a solid second over the 1050M and he is better suited to the 1200M today.
WANNAJEWEL has an imposing first up record and his recent Terang trial is worth noting in. He was restrained early before hitting the line nicely behind Dusty Star, suggesting he is once again primed for a huge first up tilt. He has switched to the Corstens stable this preparation.
CASH BOUND was smashed in early markets, $19 into $6, but it’s hard to see him winning on recent form, although the blinkers do go back on for the first time in five runs.
WANNAJEWEL shapes as a ripping EW bet here around the $11 mark currently. He will get up on the speed, trialled well enough and has a cracking first up record. The TTF Blackbooker, STREET CRIER, will be hitting the line hard provided horses can make ground on day one and is worth an EW saver if that is the case. Adding GOLD BRIDIAN (great first up) and GENERAL ORDERS (who trialled OK before luckless first up run, improves here) into the quaddie.
WARRNAMBOOL Race 10
Summary
RAZOR will lead from LET THEM HAVE IT, but there does look solid speed here for a 2300M race with the likes of RETLAW LAD, REGINA CEOLI (especially up from 1600M to 2300M), MICKIEM (really forced to go forward from horror draw) and MUJADALE all liking to race handy. Really think they will run this race at a decent clip and that will give backmarkers every chance to run over the top.
WELLS is really going to enjoy the strong tempo up front. His last run over 2000M at Seymour was super, coming from near last to all but win. He has been to the ‘Bool three times for two wins and is ideally suited getting out to the 2350M at this stage of his preparation. At $7 he represents a great each way betting option as the race sets up perfectly for his racing style.
MUJADALE is the main danger. He sat second last start at Ballarat before taking over on the turn and booting away to a most impressive win. He will find it harder here as the pace will be more hotly contested early, but he is right in the mix.
THE WILD THING looks massive odds at $41. His last run at Sandown was full of merit and if you go back a few runs he ran ME HUNGI to 0.5L when that horse was absolutely flying. He is going to appreciate the hot tempo up front and will be running home strongly.
Tough way to finish. Having an EW bet on WELLS with something on THE WILD THING at $41 and a saved on MUJADALE. Play this three prominently in all tricks. Adding WHITE KNIGHT for the quaddie.
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