The sixth edition of the Indian Premier League starts next week, delivering 76 matches of high-tempo T20 action, always brilliant for trading. Cricket trading expert, Stephen Maher, @gamblerfalls, has put the magnifying glass over the exotic markets to find the extra angle. You can read more of Stephen's expertise on his blog - gamblerfalls.com or his outright preview published yesterday.
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IPL 2013 Side Markets Preview
Finally, some side markets! Only a handful of bookies have priced them up and I’m sure there will be plenty of different ones when every bookie has markets but all I wanted was highest/lowest scores and top team batsmen markets so I’m happy to crack ahead – there;s no point betting on markets that are too crazy (like six 6s in an over or something like that). You can read my teams/squads preview here from earlier this week. I’ll start with the ones I fancy most and work down.
Lowest Team Tournament Score – Over 81.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
Paddy Power are first up and they've set the line at 81.5 5/6 either side. You’d have to go back to April 2011 for the last time a side came in under 82 when Kochi Tuskers Kerala were bowled out for 74, they are thankfully not around anymore, but Rajasthan Royals also got bowled out for 81 in 2011 too. Last year however the lowest score was 92 by Mumbai Indians, after that 92 the second lowest score was 100, miles away from 82 – I really think as more and more top quality overseas batsmen come to the IPL and the locals gain more exposure that the scores will only go up, you also have to factor in team tactics these days, teams are happy to give away singles once they’ve done major damage now that they know they would easily chase 130-ish on any pitch unless its a minefield and turning square – but sure the IPL pitches wont be like that you’d imagine – you’d have to think most pitches will be good for batting. I really think this line is wrong and I’m happy to back overs.
Top Chennai Batsman – Faf Du Plessis at 20/1 with Paddy Power. (IGNORE - see comments)
OK so a bit of guess work here in the sense that I cant tell you for sure whether or not he’ll open the batting – all I can say is that he did open the batting last year.. and that on that basis 20/1 is massive, even if he wasn't opening the batting, should he be 20/1 after the year he has had? SkyBet go 5/1 and I think that's more reflective of his chance should he open the batting, if he doesn't I think he would be a 10/1 – 12/1 shot. He's Saffer T20 captain and given the strong core of Indian players at Chennai he's bound to get a game, he's had an excellent year and if he strides out first game to open 20/1 will look absolutely massive.
Top Mumbai Batsman – Rohit Sharma at 7/2 with Paddy Power and Ricky Ponting at 4/1 with SkyBet.
I knew Sachin would be favourite here! Head in hands. He's been on the decline for a while and even though he’ll get a few dodgy LBW calls his way because he's Sachin I still cant see him being consistent enough to top score. In 2010 Sachin scored 618 runs, in 2011 553 and in 2012 I actually cant find how many he scored but it was lower than 336 as that's the last named highest scorer on the IPL list I have – you see the pattern anyway, he's getting less runs every year. Rohit Sharma top scored for Mumbai last year with 433 runs and Ricky Ponting has had a good year in domestic cricket in Australia. Obviously one will lose and whether or not its wise to back both we will have to see, but I expect the two of them to be the most important batters for Mumbai and because Sachin is so short in the market I feel there's plenty of value in the other options against him so I’m happy to back both.
Those are my main three markets, but there are other markets of interest I’m gonna run through without feeling that strongly to have a bet on. Paddy Power also have a highest team total to go with the lowest team total – its set at 223.5 5/6 either side – this line has only ever been covered four times in IPL (in three IPL years) and wasn't covered last year, with the top score being 222/5. Bar maybe RCB, Chennai and Delhi I’m not sure any other team can cover it, and I think I’d lean towards unders if pushed, but not enough to back it – Chris Gayle might cover it at Bangalore and Chennai have a strong lineup and sometimes their pitch can be a belter. One to leave alone I think.
Speaking of those teams, Chris Gayle heads up the RCB top batsman at 8/11, no value there although I think he’ll win. Shane Watson is of a small interest at 9/4 top Rajasthan Royals, but I think there is better value on Mumbai and Faf bets to get involved. I’d back David Warner top Delhi batsman if I could get 4/1+ but at the moment the best on offer is 3/1, Mahela Jayawardene actually looks big at 9/2 with Paddy Power given its only a three horse race there and he will probably be the most consistent out of the three, only thing you have against you is the top two will blast runs quicker than Mahela. Hat-trick bowled I thought was a bit skinny at 1/2 with Paddy Power, and at the moment they are the only markets the bookies have up, I’m sure there will be more but I’m fairly happy with my bets and that will do me. Hopefully everyone has a good tournament, good luck!
SUMMARY (on a 3pt to 0.25pt scale):
Lowest Team Tournament Score: 2pts win over 81.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
Top Chennai Batsman – 1pt win Faf Du Plessis at 20/1 with Paddy Power. (IGNORE - see comments)
Top Mumbai Batsman – 1pt win Rohit Sharma at 7/2 with Paddy Power and 1pt Ricky Ponting at 4/1 with SkyBet.
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IPL 2013 Side Markets Preview
Finally, some side markets! Only a handful of bookies have priced them up and I’m sure there will be plenty of different ones when every bookie has markets but all I wanted was highest/lowest scores and top team batsmen markets so I’m happy to crack ahead – there;s no point betting on markets that are too crazy (like six 6s in an over or something like that). You can read my teams/squads preview here from earlier this week. I’ll start with the ones I fancy most and work down.
Lowest Team Tournament Score – Over 81.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
Paddy Power are first up and they've set the line at 81.5 5/6 either side. You’d have to go back to April 2011 for the last time a side came in under 82 when Kochi Tuskers Kerala were bowled out for 74, they are thankfully not around anymore, but Rajasthan Royals also got bowled out for 81 in 2011 too. Last year however the lowest score was 92 by Mumbai Indians, after that 92 the second lowest score was 100, miles away from 82 – I really think as more and more top quality overseas batsmen come to the IPL and the locals gain more exposure that the scores will only go up, you also have to factor in team tactics these days, teams are happy to give away singles once they’ve done major damage now that they know they would easily chase 130-ish on any pitch unless its a minefield and turning square – but sure the IPL pitches wont be like that you’d imagine – you’d have to think most pitches will be good for batting. I really think this line is wrong and I’m happy to back overs.
Top Chennai Batsman – Faf Du Plessis at 20/1 with Paddy Power. (IGNORE - see comments)
OK so a bit of guess work here in the sense that I cant tell you for sure whether or not he’ll open the batting – all I can say is that he did open the batting last year.. and that on that basis 20/1 is massive, even if he wasn't opening the batting, should he be 20/1 after the year he has had? SkyBet go 5/1 and I think that's more reflective of his chance should he open the batting, if he doesn't I think he would be a 10/1 – 12/1 shot. He's Saffer T20 captain and given the strong core of Indian players at Chennai he's bound to get a game, he's had an excellent year and if he strides out first game to open 20/1 will look absolutely massive.
Top Mumbai Batsman – Rohit Sharma at 7/2 with Paddy Power and Ricky Ponting at 4/1 with SkyBet.
I knew Sachin would be favourite here! Head in hands. He's been on the decline for a while and even though he’ll get a few dodgy LBW calls his way because he's Sachin I still cant see him being consistent enough to top score. In 2010 Sachin scored 618 runs, in 2011 553 and in 2012 I actually cant find how many he scored but it was lower than 336 as that's the last named highest scorer on the IPL list I have – you see the pattern anyway, he's getting less runs every year. Rohit Sharma top scored for Mumbai last year with 433 runs and Ricky Ponting has had a good year in domestic cricket in Australia. Obviously one will lose and whether or not its wise to back both we will have to see, but I expect the two of them to be the most important batters for Mumbai and because Sachin is so short in the market I feel there's plenty of value in the other options against him so I’m happy to back both.
Those are my main three markets, but there are other markets of interest I’m gonna run through without feeling that strongly to have a bet on. Paddy Power also have a highest team total to go with the lowest team total – its set at 223.5 5/6 either side – this line has only ever been covered four times in IPL (in three IPL years) and wasn't covered last year, with the top score being 222/5. Bar maybe RCB, Chennai and Delhi I’m not sure any other team can cover it, and I think I’d lean towards unders if pushed, but not enough to back it – Chris Gayle might cover it at Bangalore and Chennai have a strong lineup and sometimes their pitch can be a belter. One to leave alone I think.
Speaking of those teams, Chris Gayle heads up the RCB top batsman at 8/11, no value there although I think he’ll win. Shane Watson is of a small interest at 9/4 top Rajasthan Royals, but I think there is better value on Mumbai and Faf bets to get involved. I’d back David Warner top Delhi batsman if I could get 4/1+ but at the moment the best on offer is 3/1, Mahela Jayawardene actually looks big at 9/2 with Paddy Power given its only a three horse race there and he will probably be the most consistent out of the three, only thing you have against you is the top two will blast runs quicker than Mahela. Hat-trick bowled I thought was a bit skinny at 1/2 with Paddy Power, and at the moment they are the only markets the bookies have up, I’m sure there will be more but I’m fairly happy with my bets and that will do me. Hopefully everyone has a good tournament, good luck!
SUMMARY (on a 3pt to 0.25pt scale):
Lowest Team Tournament Score: 2pts win over 81.5 at 5/6 with Paddy Power.
Top Chennai Batsman – 1pt win Faf Du Plessis at 20/1 with Paddy Power. (IGNORE - see comments)
Top Mumbai Batsman – 1pt win Rohit Sharma at 7/2 with Paddy Power and 1pt Ricky Ponting at 4/1 with SkyBet.
Careful with Faf du Plessis - injured his back in the ODI series v Pakistan and will miss the first four weeks of the IPL.
ReplyDeleteBugger, looks like we missed that - http://www.wisdenindia.com/cricket-news/injury-rules-du-plessis-weeks/55221
ReplyDeleteThanks Andrew.