Blue Diamond Stakes preview

Change of tempo here. The Blue Diamond Stakes (sort of sponsored by Patinack Farm but they've gone bust and don't have to pay the bill until afterwards so I won't acknowledge them as the title sponsor) is Melbourne's best 2yo race and is worth a cool million dollars (about £650k on this week's exchange rate). With juveniles often unexposed, sometimes it's better to cut to the chase and deal with the facts, rather than hypothesise about how much they can improve etc. Enter the team from @premiumpunting with a succinct analysis of this cracking race.

If you haven't heard the story, the favourite Miracles Of Life is a real fairytale story in the making, tiny stable, female jockey who bides her time in the lesser lights of Adelaide and the filly has been very impressive to date, bolting in at each of her three starts. The bigger stables are hot on her heels though...

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Blue Diamond Stakes preview

TEMPO: Speed everywhere as expected with the Darley horses Montsegur & Metastasio probably leading from The Bowler & Miracles Of Life along the inside.

1. CRACK A ROADIE - Resumes. Was a scratching from Mornington 2yo race. Retains Williams on board. Will be at the rear of the field. Needs a lot of luck.

2. DISSIDENT - Did plenty wrong last start in Prelude. Blinkers applied for the big one. Wide alley and will go way back. Expecting big improvement. Should run home strongly.

3. SHAMUS AWARD - Solid return last start. Loses Boss and is yet to win a race from three attempts. Not sure if he can turn it around here.

4. THE BOWLER - Excellent debut run. Tony Vasil has a huge opinion of this colt. Will push forward again and blinkers applied. With luck can go close.

6. I AM TITANIUM - Blinkers go on but doubt it can turn the tables on some of these from last start.

7. FAST ‘N’ ROCKING - Hit the line well last start. Just doubt it has a better turn of foot than some of these to win.

8. GUELPH - Easy performance to win Preview. Very professional 2yo. Wide alley means it will probably stay out of trouble. McEvoy chooses this one. Hard to knock. Big chance.

9. METASTASIO - Very professional 2yo who won easily in both of its starts. Got high last start figure but was run in just below avg time. Will try and lead. Can't knock her yet.

10. MIRACLES OF LIFE - Awesome three wins to date. From inside alley can push up and settle handy. Explosive turn of foot. Freshened and is ready to go. Would be a great story. Top hope.

11. MONTSEGUR - Is the worser of the three Darley contenders. Loses Williams. Worried leading that it isn't good enough to sustain the run for another 100m from last start.

13. KONA BREEZE - It's figures from recent runs and inability to have the knockout punch to win makes her hard to consider.

14. GREGERS - Good debut win. Last week at Flemington the three that finished behind her fought out the finish there. Drops 2.5kg. Will be on pace. Knockout chance.

15. GODIVA ROCK - Nice debut run with little luck. Extra 100m suits. May get trapped from inside alley may find it tries and pushes up. Can only improve from last run.

16. QUEST FOR PEACE - Winkers applied but figures are very low for this race. Needs huge improvement.

Selections: Going with 10 here from 9,8,4 wider with 2 & 14 for quaddies and exotics.

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

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