Skip to main content

Leopardstown G1 previews

There's top class racing at Leopardstown in Ireland today with soft going all round. The Lexus Chase has received all the attention with several potential Gold Cup horses in contention, but the Grade 1 Novice Chase is a quality contest too.

With the previews, it's aspiring commentator Will Bowler, @willbowler2k12. You can read more of his excellent writing on his blog.

TOPAZ NOVICE CHASE (2.25 Leopardstown):

Back in Focus is a high class horse in heavy ground, and the ground is soft here, but may not as bad as he would like. He does jump well and if he gets an easy lead, he will be hard to catch.

Dedigout is a high class horse who only found the bold front runner Arvika Ligeonneire too good. The form has since been franked, and has a big chance here under the Irish Champion Davy Russell.

Of the others, I like the each way chances of both Aupcharlie and Jenari. The former is ridden by the excellent Andrew Lynch, and has been crying out for three miles. He is a huge horse, who goes well in this ground, and looks a good, solid each way play at 9/1. Jenari is the choice of Tony McCoy, and again, a step up to three miles could help too. He is a Grade 2 novice hurdle winner and could run a place at around 25/1.

LEXUS CHASE (3.00 Leopardstown):

The Lexus Chase looks like the most useful trial for the Gold Cup this season above any of the previous four or five renewals, with Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs both figuring near the top of both markets. Flemenstar is a horse I love to pieces, and he jumps as well as any top class horse I can remember, with the exception of Kauto Star. The big question is will he stay three miles, and for me there is only one answer, yes! Three miles two around Cheltenham is a question for another time, but he is definitely the one to beat.

Sir Des Champs was well beaten by Flemenstar at Punchestown on seasonal debut, and has work to do with that rival here off the same terms. He will however have come on plenty for the run that day, and will be closer, but I don't think he will turn it around.

Hidden Cyclone is closely matched with Sir Des Champs from a one and a quarter length defeat in January. That was one of his two career defeats, 9-11 the overall record. He will stay, but may be better at two and a half miles. Although he has the lowest rating in the race and is the apple of his trainers eye, he has an each way chance.

The alternative option is to look at one of the British raiders Tidal Bay. He is a brilliantly quirky, and had the speed to win an Arkle in his younger days. Since his move to Paul Nicholls, he has a new lease of life, and his run in the Hennessy was a belter off top weight. He is 11 though and younger legs may find him out.

Of the others, First Lieutenant could run well, as he jumps and stays really well. It is also great to see Pandorama back, the 2010 winner for Noel Meade. But it has to be Flemenstar for me, with Hidden Cyclone to chase him home.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...