Skip to main content

Newbury preview - Fulke Walwyn Trophy Novices' Handicap Chase

The Newbury support card isn't too bad either. Blog regular, Jack Milner, @jjmsports, takes a look at the Novices' Handicap Chase at 1325.

----------------

Some decent novices turn out the sixteen runner handicap chase, and plenty of unexposed types. Rolling Aces, Godsmejudge and Seven Woods all will be popular in the betting due to their generally attractive profile and running for ‘sexy’ connections, but they will be likely to go off too short for my liking as such. That takes out the Henderson, Nicholls and King runners. Patsy Finnegan looks Alan King’s second string, and I wouldn’t be able to have it, and with the Tizzard, Twiston-Davies and O’ Neill stables not in their best form, I wouldn’t be looking at Merry King, Handy Andy or Listen Boy.

Gores Island and Amirico are likely to be outsiders who will be lacking a bit of fitness, whereas as last time out winners Benheir and Master Neo will be pretty sharp, but accordingly will be poorly handicapped due to their recent wins and revised marks. Ballypatrick would be interesting with most Henrietta Knight runners improving since switching to Mick Channon, although the run last time was uninspiring at Ascot. Benny’s Mist goes for the in-form Venetia Williams stable, but the drying out ground would be against him, although he is respected. Sir Kezbah still looks saddled with an unworkable mark, and although now only 5lb higher than his last winning mark, isn’t for me.

The race revolves around two horses for in form stables, the first being GLOBAL POWER for Oliver Sherwood and Leighton Aspell, and SHERWANI WOLF for Charlie Longsdon and Noel Fehily. Global Power was mightily impressive last time out, winning a nice beginners chase at Fontwell over two and a half miles, and although a bit of a monkey at times, he could well back it up. On his day he was a very good hurdler, and the step up in trip combined with the switch to chasing, should continue the horse’s upward curve. Sherwani Wolf has another likeable profile, never really involved and desperately needing the run last time out. The stable is now in better form, and the step up in trip should suit, with cheek-pieces being applied first time.

Selection: Global Power, Alternative: Sherwani Wolf

Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,
Post a Comment
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur
14 comments
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more