Japan Cup preview

Unfortunately I haven't had the time to draft a thorough preview for the race, so hear are some quick thoughts:

Internationals have a terrible record in this race in recent years - just four placings (including two wins) in the past decade, from 53 starters. That doesn't look like changing today, the visitors coming from the Melbourne Cup could not be classed as genuine weight-for-age horses and Solemia got lucky on a wet track in the Arc. I'd be surprised if any of them run a place. Mount Athos might be the exception, he's still on the way up in his career, but does switch from handicaps to level weights.

Now onto the locals, in betting order - read this guide from the JRA for more details.

Orfevre is a superstar, but one with flaws, as seen this year in the Hanshin Dai Shoten when he pulled up, then chased the field again and just fall short, then hit the front, be home for all money (traded 1.01 on Betfair) in the Arc de Triomphe, only to wobble and hit the rail in the closing stages and be claimed by Solemia. Huge fan of the horse, can't back him at this sort of price.

Gentildonna is the star 3yo filly of Japan, winning the female Triple Crown, only the fourth filly to achieve the feat. Took 1.7 seconds off the race record in the Oaks, but no filly has tried to win the Japan Cup after taking the Triple Crown in the same year. Owned in same interests as Orfevre (and Rulership & Rose Kingdom), jockey Y.Iwata won last year on Buena Vista.

Rulership won the QEII Cup in Hong Kong earlier in the year, then finished second to Orfevre in the Takarazuka Kinen and third to Eishin Flash in the Tenno Sho (Autumn). To be ridden by Aussie champ Craig Williams, which will make him unders on the Australian totes.

Fenomeno is the star 3yo colt, having been beaten a nose in the Japanese Derby then stepped up to open company in the Tenno Sho (Autumn), beaten a half-length by Eishin Flash and finishing aherad of numerous G1 winners, including Rulership. Exceptional closing speed, loves Tokyo racecourse with three wins and two seconds from five starts here.

Eishin Flash finished eighth in the Japan Cup for the last two years but comes into the race in better form this time, having recently won the Tenno Sho (Autumn), his first win since the Japanese Derby of 2010.

Jaguar Mail - 8yo who has finished fourth and third in the last two years respectively, despite moderate lead-in form. William Buick takes the ride, make sure you put him in if playing exotics!

Rose Kingdom won this race in 2010 but has only greeted the judge first on one occasion in 12 races since. No.

Tosen Jordan was injured in the Tenno Sho (Spring), took six months off then was beaten a long way when resuming in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) a month ago. Second in this race last year, but came into the race in top form, which can't be said this time around...

BETS:
Mostly interested in the trifecta here. Several combination tickets, based around

Fenomeno & Rulership to win
add Orfevre, Gentildonna, Jaguar Mail and Eishin Flash for second
add Tosen Jordan and Dark Shadow for third

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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