Sunday swimming part II

Apologies for the delay, have been absolutely soaked at Olympic Park and baffled by the lack of big screens and live data in the venue. If you are boasting about selling everything out and charging people just to enter the park, how about televising the action? Very disappointing.

Anyhow, back to the pool. Two additional events to cover tonight.

Women's 400m Free

Becky Adlington is defending champ but only scraped into Lane 8. Camille Muffat is the clear favourite but I doubt it's that clear-cut. With the likes of Balmy and Pellegrini in the field, I wouldn't be taking odds-on. It's the Italian Pellegrini who is worth a look here. With a classy record over 200 and 400m at major events, she can't be written off and at each-way odds, I'll be taking an interest.

0.5pt each-way Pellegrini 6/1 or better (1/3 1,2 expected)

4x100 Men's Free Relay

Just a night to be patriotic for me, watch those Aussies get out there and smash them like guitars! (Look for on YouTube the replay of this race from Sydney if you have no idea what I'm on about). Too short at 1/4 to bet on, there are still risks in relays...

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Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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