Olympic cycling - Men's Time Trial preview

More from @wheelie1977, a former top Irish cyclist who now focuses on the betting side of professional cycling. He offers these tips for subscription first, and then makes them free a day or so later. His tips throughout recent months on the Giro D'Italia and the Tour de France have been outstanding. You can read more of his excellent work on his website - Wheeliebets.

Men's Individual Time Trial

I'm taking a hammering on this already as Tony Martin is all but a losing docket due to his crash in the Tour de France. I need to look at alternatives to the Grand Tour contenders and I'm surprised to see Taylor Phinney at 66/1 with a bookmaker paying 3 places at quarter the odds.

Phinney entered the Giro D'Italia as favourite to land the 2 time trials. He succeeded in the first shattering all others best times in a masterful display despite not having raced in a month leading up to the event. He subsequently crashed and messed up his leg yet continued in the first of our Grand Tours finishing well down in the final time trial.

We haven't seen him in any event to date but it's without doubt that he's been locked away training for this event. He made the U.S. team on merit ahead of some of the more fancied riders. He's a former World Champion Under 23 rider and is as gifted on the track as he is on the road.

In essence he does his best work fresh so this freshness needs to be compared to the riders who have just finished a 3 week stint around France. Who can he go better than?

I'm certain that Tony Martin and Sylvain Chavenal do not have enough time to recover to play a part. If you discount those 2 then I can think of only 4 others who can be counted. Unfortunately we cannot leave Wiggins and Froome out of the equation as both are surely the best in the World going on the Tour form. However that's judged against other Tour riders all fatigued at the end of 3 weeks. Who has the recovery powers to land a blow?

If recovering from their exertions in the Tour aren't bad enough, the British members need to ride a gruelling race on Saturday to make sure Cavendish wins the road race. Is it all too much for the them?

Fabian Cancellara is obviously the dark horse but his powers are waning and he himself is not altogether in fantastic form. Obviously a massive favourite but he couldn't come close to Wiggins after a week riding so will need to have stepped up again in the intervening period. I think he could take Froome again but maybe not Wiggins.

The last rider I think may be a dark horse for the podium is Luis Leon Sanchez who surprised me with his showing on Saturday. However this is a much more difficult test and I think I would take Phinney any day over him.

In short, it's a tough ask to medal in this race against 2 inform Brits and a Cancellara but if any of them is off their game, the 66/1 is far too big a price. Don't get me wrong, I really can't see Wiggins faltering and he's one for you shorties but surely there's value in Phinney given all his promise to date?

I'm taking the 66/1 available hopefully recouping some losses on Martin.

Advised Bet

1pt e/w @ 66/1 Taylor Phinney Paddy Power (1/4 odds, 1,2,3)

Originally posted 24/7/12 (There's still some 66/1 win only available, with some 50/1 1/3 odds, 1,2)

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog