John Smith’s Cup Preview

The northern feature of the day is the time-honoured John Smith's Cup from York. Calum Madell, @calummadell pulls out the magnifying glass and has a close look at this very tricky race.

------------------
The 53rd John Smith’s Cup

A tough handicap to dissect as ever especially with the ground being pretty testing

Mijhaar is well handicapped now trying a hood on his Wolferton run where he was very fresh and ran a cracker. He has regularly been in these types of handicaps but has yet to strike gold though he never seems much value again in what is a really competitive race as ever, though a hood could really help him. More rain would be a hindrance however.

MEDIA HYPE has a great chance off his mark. He was a good winner here on his penultimate start and the ground did for him at Newmarket when last seen when it was pretty fast. That race was won by Area Fifty One who took it in convincing style. However the race seemed to fall into his hands slightly and whether he can get away with it again in a better race and with 8lb more in the weights. Ground is the big worry for many, notably Prince Of Johanne who looks pattern class. He has now won two big prizes in the Cambridgeshire last year and The Royal Hunt Cup latest. He looks a pattern class horse in the making but all his form is one good ground and that he is unlikely to get. The trip should be fine though as he’s versatile from a mile to 10f.

Kirthill was an eyecatcher last time in the Wolferton and is handicapped top go nicely again though ground is the worry with him.

Alkimos ran well last time at Ascot in the Duke Of Edinburgh and though maybe not too well handicapped, he should be thereabouts.

Memory Cloth had seemed to have been caught by the handicapper but then went in at Newcastle, landing a hefty gamble two weeks ago. He hasn’t been too badly treated by the handicapper and ground and trip are fine.

Navajo Chief beat Area Fifty One over 1m1f here last time but even with a claimer on, the weight may be too much to follow up albeit he’s run his best races here and goes on soft.

Mid Mon Lady doesn’t scream out as being too well handicapped though did run the smart Danadana close in the Zetland two starts ago.

Stand To Reason is starting to become a little frustrating and though possibly he didn’t stay out 1m4f the last twice, he isn’t one you’d bode much confidence with.

Licence To Till has been in decent form of late with a good win from the front at Chester and a solid third behind Area Fifty One at Newmarket but he also got the run of the race and the handicapper has caught up it seems now.

Pivotman and King’s Warrior were both well beaten in that race, the former first beaten while the latter isn’t a bad price seeing as his best form is on soft.

Tameem has promised to be better than his mark and needs a hood to bring that out. Right Step should have conditions to suit and has place claims while the old boy Nanton may not get his ground but it will be interesting to see if the ability remains.

Advice - Media Hype 2pts win @7/1 generally

You can read more of Calum's work on his blog, TheYoungRacegoer

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Sport is made for betting

Search This Blog