Skip to main content

2.05 Newmarket preview

Sunday's card at Newmarket opens with quite a tricky handicap, just the sort of puzzle which Dan Kelly, @muffinmannhc, lives for...
---------

A race which has been bereft of quality until Times Up win last year, this year's running looks a far sharper renewal.

If there's one good thing about the Shergar Cup then it's surely the inability of some jockeys to ride the round course, and Yutaka Take is a prime example of such, the good thing you wonder is the fact that Rock A Doodle Doo comes here after a fall in the weights. Then again I am being harsh on Take, as he wasn't the only jockey to give him a poor ride last year, Makin did also at York, whether that was due to possible stamina doubts or not, he made too much use of RADD in the home straight and was spent in closing stages. Back over his favoured 12f trip, he is overpriced at 16s+.

Of the shorter priced runners, I am keen on seeing how Sandusky goes this year. Late on the scene as a 2yo he ran behind Al Kazeem where showing a tendency to be keen, and this trait was noticeable again in his 3yo career. He was keen throughout at York on handicap debut, and as many have done Ahmed Ajtebi made a move too early in the straight, mix these two together and it's not a surprise he didn't see out the 12f trip out then. He closed his season off with a very comfortable win at Goodwood where again after a break he was keen, but stayed the trip out well on ground on easy side. Question is will he be keen again here, however with a further winter on his back I very much doubt we have seen the best of him.

Couple of interesting runners for future engagements take the form of Eye Of The Tiger and Lyric Street. Eye Of The Tiger has been dropped 11lbs since his debut run for Barney Curley, amazing considering he was loose beforehand, and I fully expect him to be a force in the better 12f+ races later on in the season if he's able to shave another 11lbs off his handicap. a Group 2 winner on Soft ground in Cologne over 12f his overseas form suggest he's best seen from the front, so we will at least know when he's on a going day. Lyric Street is an interesting stable switch. Leaving Cumani's for Ed Dunlop is not a switch I would class as a plus, but he's yet to encounter his favoured conditions of Good or quicker ground since his good win at this course last year. I hope a tilt at something like the Old Newton Cup at Haydock is in his schedule.

Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,
Post a Comment
Read more

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur
14 comments
Read more

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...
33 comments
Read more