more Aus Open content

More material I hope you'll enjoy reading:

Tournament preview at TheShark.com.au (note these previews are Betfair-oriented, so they will be slightly different to content written for TheTote.com.au)

It's Aussie Open time which means a plethora of betting and trading opportunities on Betfair.

Match betting is the obvious choice for quick investments, but betting in-running is tricky with the Federal online ban meaning you have to ring up to trade your position. The outright markets though aren't classed as in-play until the final, so you can trade a player's outright position right through the fortnight.

MEN'S DRAW

The men's tournament comes down to the big four vs the rest, so let's take a look at how we might trade them:

1. Djokovic
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At the US Open last year, he was 1.53 against Federer in the semi, and 1.67 against Nadal in the final. Unless the draw collapses, he won't be a whole lot shorter here so if you want to back him, I don't see much point in doing before the second week. If you want to lay him, his price won't move much until the fourth round possibly against Raonic so there's no rush.

Read the full article here

And my Round 1 preview - five of the seven matches covered are still to play.

Comments

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...

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