Skip to main content

Hong Kong International Vase assessment

Local runners have a poor record in this race - understandable as they don't really do distance racing - with just two placegetters in the last 10 editions. I think Thumbs Up is pretty exciting, but the rest of them have no hope.

Runners:

Trailblazer: top run in the Japan Cup, finishing 4th and 2.5L behind the mighty mare Buena Vista. He was ahead of Arc winner Danedream and one his main rivals today, Sarah Lynx. Drawn ideally, still a 4yo with steadily improving ratings - he is right in contention for this.

Jakkalberry: wins Group races in Italy, comes up short when he visits the UK. Came fifth in this race last year, can't see him doing any better this time.

Silver Pond: finished midfield in the Arc de Triomphe when he drew the outside and had no alternative but to go back to last. Good form around Bekhabad and Sarafina before that and drawn ideally. French horses have a n exceptional record in this race (8 wins in 17yrs).

Campanologist: won his last two starts, claiming 'softer' Group 1 races in Italy and Germany. Stable won this last year with Mastery. Not a big fan of the horse, but he will be in the mix.

Dunaden: the Melbourne Cup winner who will be at much bigger odds in Europe if you fancy him. Trainer is confident, jockey is in incredible form, big chance.

Mighty High: poor race record for locals and his last two starts have been poor. Would surprise.

Mr Medici: less chance than Mighty High.

Redwood: ran second in this race last year (result and replay). Doesn't appear to be going as well as last year, but has no qualms about travelling. Drawn wide, will get double the UK price in Australia.

Thumbs Up: impressive in his first run over 2000m in almost two years - replay. Flew home down the outside, giving the impression that a further step up in distance won't worry him. Might find it a little harder to flash from the back from gate one, but is a leading contender.

Red Cadeaux: beaten by a pixel in the Melbourne Cup, carrying 1kg less than Dunaden. His trainer knows exactly what he is doing with travelling his horses, back to 2400 won't bother him.

Super Satin: Derby winner of 2010, hasn't run a place in 2011. Nope.

Sarah Lynx: well-travelled French mare, recently running in the Woodbine International (won at 22/1with a dream rails run - check out the awful racecall) and the Japan Cup (12th, never fired). Gets a small weight advantage, not sure she's good enough to win.

Vadamar: quality French 3yo, was fancied in the Epsom Derby but was overshadowed by the other French horse Pour Moi. Had a three month break and was set for this race. Won the Prix De Conseil de Paris at his last start, and with only seven starts under his belt, has plenty of improvement left in him. Versatile, can go forward or back.

VERDICT

Like Trailblazer and Vadamar here, with Silver Pond, Campanologist, Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Thumbs Up going into the exotics.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also, ...

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur...